Model output discussion - mid-winter

[Methuselah]

And yet another day10 'it'll never verify' NE'erly!

[Snowmadsam]

With this cold zonal flow due to arrive next week northern AND Western areas should be prepared for some surprises as has often happened in this flow.

I do expect some streamer events to occur in the week, maybe a Cheshire gap and a possible dangler (but that maybe hard to get going). 

Also take note of evaporative cooling, the winds around this system are cold yes, but the faster they flow the more readily precipitation may turn to snow and a warm Irish Sea will also potentially play a part in igniting some convective precipitation. There is no point in predicting exact timings as of yet. I will be doing something of a more in-depth post later this weekend. Model output in the medium is also looking interesting as does the potential SSW in the longer term. A lot to be getting our teeth into. 

Edited January 10, 2018 by Snowmadsam

[Weathizard]

The trough dropping into Europe can only be a good thing, means if we did get the fabled eastern promise it wouldn't be a pathetic one, also pressure rising over Greenland. Obviously it's out of a reliable so take with a pinch of salt, but it's trending better long term.

[Glacier Point]

2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Interesting Stewart. Is this overall skill score - or do you have access to data that is more relevant to a specific scenario compromising convection in the maritimes?

Don’t have it to hand but it was mjo RMM for each phase ec vs gfs vs cfs

[Seasonality]

And finally some proper cold into Europe this winter.

 

[Singularity]

 

Hmm yes... the amplification response to the signals from the Pacific is not ideal but a little improved from the 06z. Had more of a ridge held on across E. Scandinavia and NW. Asia as per the 06z, then we'd have had some decent cold moving in from the east. 

The result that we're shown is far from tragic though and just some relatively small further tweaks away from something very entertaining to look at 

Still musing over whether this is an example of GFS picking on the new signal but then running toward it too quickly. It does seem to do that sometimes. Maybe even often?

[Methuselah]

And, after the apparent deadlock around Day 10, it all collapses into a tee-shirt special...It's the potential deadlock that interests me though, as it oughtn't take too much to tip the balance t'other way...? Which would, incidentally, give IAPennell's LRF a chance of verifying...?

Tee-shirt Special:

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Rather silly post. Not quite as simple as that. Snow anywhere in Florida is exceptional, and snow in southern Spain is unusual away from the higher ground. (Just to clarify, it didn't snow on the coast.) You could equally argue that the UK is at the western end of a continent lol.

We’ll be fine when we get a decent easterly then ..........

if only we could drain the North Sea ...... so it’s not apples and apples is it  ??

Exactly how unusual is snow in s Spain away from hills ??

and I thought they had received some snow on the coast. If not, then the whole bloody post is  redundant !

[Flaked Queen]

7 minutes ago, andymusic said:

it actually snowed on the beaches near malaga

The sudden cold snap followed an unusually bright and sunny spell in other Costa Del Sol resorts. Here the Fuengirola beach on Monday was covered in snow

[booferking]

And back to the models Cold air from the Atlantic on track to come in Monday out west and spread to all areas by early Tuesday morning.

Edited January 10, 2018 by booferking

[doctor32]

If we can get to this point as shown by GFS then i will be very happy, as what happens next could be our next best chance of locking in some cold...

[bluearmy]

Last jan it snowed in alicante

anyway - back to the pigs and lipstick thread ........

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And, after the apparent deadlock around Day 10, it all collapses into a tee-shirt special

 

Lots of very cold air poised to the Errr..west though Ed, would be the briefest of milder blips

[Team Jo]

Guys, please read Paul’s opening post to this thread.

personal insults around forecast, opinion or posting style are not welcome. 

If you are unhappy with a post directed at you please report it rather than retaliate.

thanks. Be nice. 

 

?

 

 

[SLEETY]

5 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

If we can get to this point as shown by GFS then i will be very happy, as what happens next could be our next best chance of locking in some cold...

Hopefully it pulls  the HIGH NW by about 500 miles ,then we would really be in proper winter and actually proper snow lol.Will it happen though ,hmmm

Edited January 10, 2018 by SLEETY

[A.J]

18 minutes ago, andymusic said:

just trying to say that this is becoming an unusual winter and to expect the unexpected - from what the models are showing we could all see some very cold weather with snow

I understand Andy .....dammit, thought I'd just revisit my bad cop NetWeather moderator days,  one of the grumpiest mods in the history of NW....lmao......those were the days .....lol

Anyhoos, plenty of interest in the GFS for wintry ppn for just about all parts of the UK, not the normal winter as you posted, and miles away from the mild mush and drizzly dross of recent winters

 

Edited January 10, 2018 by ajpoolshark

[Team Jo]

Okay, I’ve moved and removed a whole heap of posts.

Please take banter into the appropriate thread.

thanks!

[johnholmes]

56 minutes ago, mulzy said:

@johnholmes produced a superb guide on "will it snow" - would be good to link it here.

have a look in the Guides then post in here-thank you for the compliment

 

[Nick L]

Awful lot of off topicness going on in here this evening. If your post has gone, that's why.

[Seasonality]

14 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

have a look in the Guides then post in here-thank you for the compliment

 

Hi John, it is a fab guide indeed and I posted it on here a couple of days back. Here it is again for those who missed it.

 

[Boro Snow]

1 hour ago, doctor32 said:

We had -6 to -7.c uppers last weekend and only managed a bit of hail/sleet from showers at best from a cold north east flow, which at this time of year, you would have thought snow showers were guaranteed.

The positive and unusual anomalies in the Norwegian Sea had something to do with that im sure, -6/-7 in January in a NE flow would normally be enough

[feb1991blizzard]

Signs (albeit tentative) of a scandi height rise in FI on the GEFS, normally at this time of year with the GLOSEA not backing the SSW attempt and MO 30 dayer / EC46 not looking great, I would be very downbeat, despite being very downbeat at the Easterly just gone debacle, there is something telling me this winter could still deliver something special in the 2nd half. Even if there is a period of more westerly rather than NWerly zonality, the PV just doesn't look organised at all even in the more zonal runs, also we are looking like there will be some severe cold not too far away to the East so......

[The Weather Dragon]

A pattern change to a cold polar maritime flow is now looking highly likely - and with the trough dropping into Europe the models are trying to decide what happens thereafter- interesting times ! 

[Decemberof2010]

Is this the model thread?, or the Will it snow at this temp in this location and when did it do it, thread?

Becoming annoying now. 

No real change in the output for next week so far. Let's look forward to a decent ECM

[nick sussex]

This trough position still seems to be causing problems .

The GFS carries on from its 06 hrs run with a sharper trough and builds pressure to the north later.

The GEFS continue to show a large spread re the trough set up.

The UKMO looks similar to the 00hrs run, less dig se than the GFS but less progressive than the ECM 00hrs run.

Talking of that we need that to backtrack to sharpen up the trough and be less progressive when it comes out soon.

The outlook in terms of overall pattern has good agreement upto day 10 but the issue is whether the trough sinks sufficiently to allow colder air from the east ne or whether low pressure runs east and phases with that trough energy.

Theres a case to be made for several different outcomes within that generally agreed pattern.

For coldies you’re looking for some more amplitude upstream to slow the eastwards progression and some build of pressure to the north.