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Model output discussion - mid-winter


Paul
Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Not really - the only way folk in the South can have any meaningful and lying snow is for runners to run across the base of any dominant trough and even then a hell of a lot of luck is needed.

maybe this year this winter has the ability to produce, snowing in some right weird places and amounts around us so why not?

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Just now, frosty ground said:

Is it?

UW144-7.GIF?10-17gfs-1-144.png?12

For an Atlantic modified flow, that is rain for the vast majority I am afraid.

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

chances of back edge snow starting tea time Monday while Ireland already enjoying the fun

gfs-2-126.png?12

more westerly action into Tuesday

gfs-2-144.png?12

Edited by andymusic
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Posted
  • Location: Strabane Co. Tyrone, 500 feet below sea level
  • Location: Strabane Co. Tyrone, 500 feet below sea level

Living in north west northern ireland, seen many atlantic lows coming in with -5/6 uppers and its alwaysss rain or sleet to low levels, atleast on the west of the country. gfs looks marginal, could be snowfest for some, UKMO uppers only -4, I wouldnt be expecting snow with that. it could well happen, i just wouldnt get my hopes up

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Crap Uppers though.

I make them -6 UKmo and gfs 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, frosty ground said:

Is it?

UW144-7.GIF?10-17gfs-1-144.png?12

On the UKMO most definitely (which is what I am responding to), -4c is never enough to avoid marginality in a NW flow, you might be lucky if you live up the A672 or A62 at 1000ft but even for me and certainly for low ground in the North never mind in the South, so for the majority of habitable places yes - BTW I'm not saying that's the way it will turn out as you point out that the GFS is better, but I'm just saying what the UKMO model is saying.

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

For an Atlantic modified flow, that is rain for the vast majority I am afraid.

What parameter do you think is out? GFS at -6 or -7 looks fine, dewpoints are good, I checked the 850-1000 on the morning run via weatheronline and they looked good, ground temps are zero or near below, I even checked the wet bulb freezing level, which was good (please note, I was focusing on Pennines but they appeared okay more widely) Now -4 would be poor in UKMO and -5 would likely need elevation, so there's the problem.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Given any waves/disturbances within the flow, I'd say that there's more than enough potential to keep us all busy::yahoo:

 

h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, snowice said:

I make them -6 UKmo and gfs 

You cant tell exactly what they are but they are between -4 and -6c on UKMO, GFS are lower than -6c so could be a goer.

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

On the UKMO most definitely (which is what I am responding to), -4c is never enough to avoid marginality in a NW flow, you might be lucky if you live up the A672 or A62 at 1000ft but even for me and certainly for low ground in the North never mind in the South, so for the majority of habitable places yes - BTW I'm not saying that's the way it will turn out as you point out that the GFS is better, but I'm just saying what the UKMO model is saying.

The UKM is under -5 especially for the Greater Manchester area. Cold for for snow with elevation...... Plus any shower activity is going to pack a punch and drag temps down.

Also the reply you replied to quoted both GFS and UKM.

Edited by frosty ground
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Just now, ukpaul said:

What parameter do you think is out? GFS at -6 or -7 looks fine, dewpoints are good, I checked the 850-1000 on the morning run via weatheronline and they looked good, ground temps are zero or near below, I even checked the wet bulb freezing level, which was good (please note, I was focusing on Pennines but they appeared okay more widely) Now -4 would be poor in UKMO and -5 would likely need elevation, so there's the problem.

The uppers even at -6/-7 on a westerly flow are VERY marginal.  Elevation is the key for lying snow - 200m+ is most likely needed for lying snow in my honest opinion.  Scottish mountains will do very well as ever in this kind of set-up.

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2 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

What parameter do you think is out? GFS at -6 or -7 looks fine, dewpoints are good, I checked the 850-1000 on the morning run via weatheronline and they looked good, ground temps are zero or near below, I even checked the wet bulb freezing level, which was good (please note, I was focusing on Pennines but they appeared okay more widely) Now -4 would be poor in UKMO and -5 would likely need elevation, so there's the problem.

In a NW flow for mainland Uk ideally sub 1280 DAM

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
3 minutes ago, carinthian said:

In the village looking towards my apartment this afternoon. Love snow.

26196009_10156116215108628_4037692912763661742_n.jpg

Wow, great pic C

I highly suspect winter 17/18 will end up going down as one of the best ever in recent history for many places in the Alps. I can't really see any let up in snow events as January progresses and going into Feb.

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You cant tell exactly what they are but they are between -4 and -6c on UKMO, GFS are lower than -6c so could be a goer.

The GFS is below -6 for most 144-7UK.GIF?10-1295% of the UK is under -5

UKM has a smaller area of -6 over northern England.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Just now, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon All

The 12z UKMO & GFs @ 144 look like the ideal blend of enough progression SE from the Atlantic to bring widespread snow to the W/NW whilst still appearing to hold back enough to allow sinking & pressure to build over the top as the Scandi high & arctic high lurk in the back ground -

a fine balance but we don’t want any more eastward shunts...

S

Hi Steve

Can you solve the uppers problem as some members don't think there cold for snow gfs UKmo look fine to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Coldish uppers, light winds, heavy precipitation and a warm sector - a forecaster's nightmare?

 

h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
3 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Wow, great pic C

I highly suspect winter 17/18 will end up going down as one of the best ever in recent history for many places in the Alps. I can't really see any let up in snow events as January progresses and going into Feb.

And  winter 17/18 in the uk will go down as one of the best ever in recent history for chasing cold for many ,but in the end it only delivered in the Scottish Highlands:gathering:

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
3 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Wow, great pic C

I highly suspect winter 17/18 will end up going down as one of the best ever in recent history for many places in the Alps. I can't really see any let up in snow events as January progresses and going into Feb.

Certainly one of the best starts since I first came here in 2005 and seems to be spread out to all the Alpine ski nations, particularly those at altitude have amassed really good depths. February 2013 produced some locally very good snowfalls in Carinthia particularly.

 C

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