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Model output discussion - mid-winter


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in here & please keep it friendly!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
3 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

And by 252 hours we're back to where we are now. ?  Thankfully anything past 120/144 is pure conjecture.

Yes noticed that, deepest FI though, need a better angled attack from the Atlantic at 252

h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Don't know if anyone has posted these but the Ecm 00z ensemble mean clearly shows a spell of increasngly cold zonality arriving during the first half of next week, especially further north and lasting through into the following week.:):cold-emoji:

ECMAVGEU00_120_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_144_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_168_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

wonder if the models can deliver this to our shores starting next week care of les alps lol

a new ice age dawns - who said the glaciers were dead?

 

snowfest.jpg

Edited by andymusic
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Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

The north west of britain is looking favourable for snow. Could someone point me in the right direction  please. What parts of the country class as north west? Scotland, n.ireland and nw england?? 

Edited by Snowjokes92
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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Just now, Snowjokes92 said:

The north west of britain is looking favourable for snow. Could someone point me in the right direction  please. What parts of the country class as north west? Scotland, n.ireland and nw england?? 

Anywhere north and west of the M4

 

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
6 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

The north west of britain is looking favourable for snow. Could someone point me in the right direction  please. What parts of the country class as north west? Scotland, n.ireland and nw england?? 

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSR9Fiv_y5gvU-SgNAiBMo

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Posted
  • Location: Bishop Auckland, Durham NE
  • Location: Bishop Auckland, Durham NE

Would class that as south midlands (down to bristol and then eastwards) for someone like us thats right in the North of England in Durham/Newcastle area.

 

Be much more better if people used a city to describe the location rather than North, South, East, NW

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Posted
  • Location: Nutts Corner
  • Location: Nutts Corner

Charts like this at 150 hrs I thought this place would be in melt down and not a ghost town.....snow potential to the south east of UK.

Anyhow, north west looking like it could get a pasting next week, potential for long periods of heavy snow.......am awaiting the next roll out of charts with excited anticipation.

 

prectypeuktopo.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Norwood, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Cold Winters & Warm Dry Summers
  • Location: South Norwood, London

Predicting snow at 6 hours can be a challenge let alone 6 days. Pretty much guaranteed the next run will show something different at that time frame. 

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9 minutes ago, Chris. said:

Would class that as south midlands (down to bristol and then eastwards) for someone like us thats right in the North of England in Durham/Newcastle area.

 

Be much more better if people used a city to describe the location rather than North, South, East, NW

My reckoning would be somewhere in the region of: Liverpool, Manchester, Preston, Lancaster, Lake District/Cumbria.....  I often wonder too, as North West covers a big area too..... round here, Preston we rarely get snow, yet Cheshire 50 miles south do well....

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
7 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I thought this was the model output discussion, not the ‘where will it snow’

That 20 page an hour discussion is on its way no doubt:cold::rofl::wallbash:

Still wonder if the next 96-120 may have some never saw that coming moments

Edited by Chris101
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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
22 minutes ago, damianb123 said:

My reckoning would be somewhere in the region of: Liverpool, Manchester, Preston, Lancaster, Lake District/Cumbria.....  I often wonder too, as North West covers a big area too..... round here, Preston we rarely get snow, yet Cheshire 50 miles south do well....

Might be best discussing this in the Regional Threads.

Then we can stick with the Title of the Thread.

And on That note Models seem to be firming on Quite a cold week Starting from around Monday with plenty of wintriness and probably not reserved just for High Ground either

C.S 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
32 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

Charts like this at 150 hrs I thought this place would be in melt down and not a ghost town.....snow potential to the south east of UK.

Anyhow, north west looking like it could get a pasting next week, potential for long periods of heavy snow.......am awaiting the next roll out of charts with excited anticipation.

 

prectypeuktopo.png

To be honest GFS looks ok..Ec doesnt look great and Exeters update sounds distinctly more wet than white..

I would reign in expectations if i were you  ...if you dont have at the minimum 200m altitude i dont think you will see much if any lying snow. :-(

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

To be honest GFS looks ok..Ec doesnt look great and Exeters update sounds distinctly more wet than white..

I would reign in expectations if i were you  ...if you dont have at the minimum 200m altitude i dont think you will see much if any lying snow. :-(

 

I disagree about the Ecm, it looks great for the north with 520 dam at times, hope the 12z upgrades it even more!..generally pleased with the trend towards a spell of cold zonality which in January means favoured areas will get significant snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I disagree about the Ecm, it looks great for the north with 520 dam at times, hope the 12z upgrades it even more!..generally pleased with the trend towards a spell of cold zonality which in January means favoured areas will get significant snow.

Fingers crossed Karl..

:)

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
51 minutes ago, Jayces said:

Predicting snow at 6 hours can be a challenge let alone 6 days. Pretty much guaranteed the next run will show something different at that time frame. 

Yes agree, my location needs the perfect angle off a NW'ly, as it stands at the moment (deep FI) winds look WNW'ly, so showers will drift ESE through the Cheshire Gap, giving Stockport a pasting, then into Derbyshire

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Don't know if anyone has posted these but the Ecm 00z ensemble mean clearly shows a spell of increasngly cold zonality arriving during the first half of next week, especially further north and lasting through into the following week.:):cold-emoji:

ECMAVGEU00_120_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_144_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_168_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png

Well looking at those model outputs from Frosty, should they verify even roughly then I would expect to see some wintriness Western Highlands, Lakes, Pennines North Wales and probably to low levels in these areas dependent upon exactly how the temperatures verify. So from a North West perspective I'd anticipate west of the Pennines, in a line maybe North and West of the Cheshire Gap ?

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
12 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Evening all. Well a super good day here, 20cm of fresh overnight powder snow. We have a total depth in the village of 100cm and well over 150 cm at 2000m. You can imagine our snow portal service has been working overtime in recent days. We now have avalanche warning especially runs at 2000m plus. Its an area warning that includes Karten, Salzburgerland, Tirol, Voralbourg with some big accumulations reported on the peaks further west and towards the Sud Tirol. Thankfully, heaviest snow tomorrow and Saturday seems to be heading in the direction of the Pyrenees and France ( as if they do not already have enough ) delivered by that developing low off Brittany. That leads me on to a brief forecast provided by our portal service forecasting team with specifics regarding the British Isles.  Shorter term models have the block to remain for at least another 48 hours induced by lower height transferring SE into mainland Europe, . Light e/ne  continental flow across the UK. Dry for most of the period including much of the weekend. Still some doubt as to how the Atlantic trough aligns and the timing as to when it breaks through the British Isles, (Monday seems to be the favoured day ) but could still only affect the North and West at that stage. Certainly support over here for second half of January to go strongly negative NAO with a Low pressure squeeze into Western Europe between the robust Scandinavian High and developing height rises in the Western/ North Atlantic.  Obviously,  that set up would put Blighty on snow alert but as ever its still in the longer term and you snow starved lot still have to wait.Cheers all from a mega snowbound Katschberg.

C

lucky devil - pics please lol

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

All this talk of NW England getting poss snow, surely anywhere in Jan in a PM flow with decent 850s has a chance, especially at night 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

All this talk of NW England getting poss snow, surely anywhere in Jan in a PM flow with decent 850s has a chance, especially at night 

Not really - the only way folk in the South can have any meaningful and lying snow is for runners to run across the base of any dominant trough and even then a hell of a lot of luck is needed.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

All this talk of NW England getting poss snow, surely anywhere in Jan in a PM flow with decent 850s has a chance, especially at night 

GFS UKmo going for snow in cold pm from Monday on:cold:

Edited by snowice
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