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Model output discussion - mid-winter


Paul
Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs looks pretty damn good for the north and west from 132 hours onwards!!!

Some relief that the 6z gfs doesn't follow the ECM:)

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

A more NW-SE trajectory but the PV chunk is weaker and dying away quickly (partly as a result of greater heights into Greenland), sure to have an effect down the line.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Nice looking charts. Heights over Greenland continuing a theme from yesterdays GFS 12z, a long draw of cold air from Canada to the Med! 

gfsnh-0-198.png

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Just now, shaky said:

Thank god mate!!!any improvements on the 06z icon if you know?

The 6z ICON looks similar to the previous run unfortunately. It only goes up to 120 hours but at to that point no change to 0z

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Nice looking charts. Heights over Greenland continuing a theme from yesterdays GFS 12z, a long draw of cold air from Canada to the Med! 

gfsnh-0-198.png

Wow  Seasonality...

With reports of 2 -7M of snow in the French Alps in the last 2 days (and still falling), we may have to send a search party for the alps if this verifies.:D 

MIA

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Comparing the 00z to the 06z. Atlantic ridging into Greenland and reinvigoration of Scandi heights. 

gfsnh-0-222.png

gfsnh-0-216.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Quite a bit of ❄❄❄❄ snow spreading in from the NW from early next week on the Gfs 6z, impressive cold zonality.:):cold-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

6z gfs from 216 could be a belter!!! Tying in with GP ete musings going forward ie heights building nne

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Anyone who viewed the 18Z last night shouldn't be surprised by the 06Z so far. This is why I am surprised at some of the posts this morning especially considering the GEM output also.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Now going for an Iceland/Scandi link up of heights.

gfsnh-0-228.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Just now, Seasonality said:

Now going for an Iceland/Scandi link up of heights.

gfsnh-0-228.png

And by 252 hours we're back to where we are now. ?  Thankfully anything past 120/144 is pure conjecture.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

Atlantic looks too strong in FI this time but, maybe, if the heights left there can build the way they have done this week, could that next attempt at a block lead to a battleground event? Needs all the elements to fall into place but you never know......

EDIT: Not backing down on the strat warming either, bringing it forwards as time passes. 324h now.

gfsnh-10-324_hsa5.png

 

Edited by ukpaul
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

And by 252 hours we're back to where we are now. ?

Not really, much colder over both the mainland and the UK and a rather different picture synoptically. All academic at this range of course.

 

gfseu-0-252.png

gfseu-0-6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Just now, Seasonality said:

Not really, much colder over both the mainland and the UK and a rather different picture synoptically. All academic at this range of course.

 

gfseu-0-252.png

gfseu-0-6.png

I take your point Seasonality.I. was refering to the synoptic stalemate with the high too far east and low stalling out west as you say though

 Totally academic at that range.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

There is one shred of hope, in the gfs06z, I suppose: it's very unlikely to verify!:yahoo:

h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The GFS seems determined to keep us interested . The chopping and changing  with how the trough disrupts at least gives hope that the matter isn’t settled.

The ECM though looks less than interested and given the timeframes that would have to perform  a back track.

It seems though since its upgrade to veer from either over amplified or has at times thrown out some much more progressive outputs.

 

 

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

There is one shred of hope, in the gfs06z, I suppose: it's very unlikely to verify!:yahoo:

h850t850eu.png

Especially at day 16 ? 

 

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