Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 5.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

If everyone on here could be friendly and (ideally) find a sense of humour, that would just be hunky dorey.

So just to clarify CK1981 because I have not seen you say this 2,350 times in the last 136 pages of this thread you think there will be something interesting around Mid Month ??? Dont want to go to be

Have nade my first mini snow man. First in 5 years.

Posted Images

9 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Ok, we can just forget about the misunderstanding. I was merely thinking aloud when I said ‘is this going pear shaped I wonder’. I’m the biggest coldie ever, so I’m willing an easterly to our shores.

I don’t want any agro either and I’m  commenting less in the other threads because some members seem to get pleasure out of pecking at people, and I don’t think any of us want that here.

I understand that I’m a huge coldie not for my own good, it’s a hard life. It is hard to restrain myself sometimes from salivating output when you know the reality 9/10 will be different. Always good to have some hope you bloody need it in this region. I don’t purposely intend malice towards anyone, everything is said for a reason sometimes you can get carried away those that do it continuously something should be done. I know I’m not liked by all in that thread that’s doesn’t stop me, just post is my advice I like your posts, forget about everyone else. This thread and regionals as a whole has never really been a place of drama, I once got in a heated exchange with Ben over wet weather...but largely we’re all nice and friendly in here. In 2014 there were some big issues in SE thread, but it’s all solved now. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I understand that I’m a huge coldie not for my own good, it’s a hard life. It is hard to restrain myself sometimes from salivating output when you know the reality 9/10 will be different. Always good to have some hope you bloody need it in this region. I don’t purposely intend malice towards anyone, everything is said for a reason sometimes you can get carried away those that do it continuously something should be done. I know I’m not liked by all in that thread that’s doesn’t stop me, just post is my advice I like your posts, forget about everyone else. This thread and regionals as a whole has never really been a place of drama, I once got in a heated exchange with Ben over wet weather...but largely we’re all nice and friendly in here. In 2014 there were some big issues in SE thread, but it’s all solved now. 

It’s all good here! Will be interesting to see the final outcome when all models reach agreement. That won’t be for a few days yet as there are still stark differences between them. 

You just know the ECM will throw another spanner in the works tonight too ?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Don't turn this place into the model thread :pardon::friends:

The problem I see every time is people taking each run as gospel to what will happen to only then be let down or sudden joy when it goes either way 6 hours later. 

Plus, there are a few newbies that stir the pot up when they don't really understand how the mechanisms behind our weather work. 

Trend is your friend, and from the middle of last week a new trend was picked up on that was highlighted by some longer range models at the start of January and that is for a colder February. 

Now we have to take a step back from that and with a sprinkle of salt because when longer range models pick up on these kind of signals it doesn't always mean the extreme, a colder February could  mean that its only slightly below or could mean below average or we'll below average. Its not until you get within the reliable time that humans begin to properly analyse the data available and give a educated opinion what will happen next. Even then 12 hours before something is due to take place it goes bandy... That's the beauty of weather. 

Next, if something happens somewhere else in the atmosphere that affects our weather, these tend to have a big time delay or small depending on the "event" that can massively alter the weather or setup up shown above our tiny island. 

We also have probably one of the biggest weather makers in the world to our left that being the Atlantic ocean. Friend or foe its a gigantic area that has many varying factors and meteorological  happenings every day these sometimes do or don't affect our weather most of the time it does.. 

Don't get me started on the jet stream... :rofl:

The great thing about our tiny island is we can almost always be on the chance for weather.. Okay unless a great big fat high it sat over us or a slack easterly... Lol 90% of the time we can hunt the next big thing.. Be it storms, heat, snow, (ha!) or something that tickles your fancy, it's there... 

If February isn't cold we move onto spring and the hunt for early warmth and April showers is on or the hunt for sunny days High pressure to get the spring growth a kick start. 

Stay calm, we are all in same boat and we don't want to rock the boat lol! 

Peace and love 

 

 

 

 

I totally agree with you.

I hope your comment regarding newbies stirring the pot wasn’t aimed at me. I’m not a newbie and I also have a perfect understanding of this subject and how the models behave.

I’m no expert, but I don’t think anyone here is, otherwise we’d all be working down at Met Office HQ in Exeter.

Nobody should make rash judgements on others or assume they don’t understand the models or our weather patterns as a whole.

Just saying ?

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CK1981 said:

It’s all good here! Will be interesting to see the final outcome when all models reach agreement. That won’t be for a few days yet as there are still stark differences between them. 

You just know the ECM will throw another spanner in the works tonight too ?

Probably show a big freeze tonight on ECM get your mittens and woolly hats while you can! Disclaimer you may need to return. ? :drunk::yahoo::cold::help::crazy:

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Daniel* said:

Probably show a big freeze tonight on ECM get your mittens and woolly hats while you can! Disclaimer you may need to return. ? :drunk::yahoo::cold::help::crazy:

And will then all flip tomorrow. It’s a rollercoaster at the moment.

There must be a point this week when they agree, but the way things are going, I’m not so sure.

The only crumb of comfort at the moment are the updates from Exeter. They are still pushing the colder theme, so confidence must be growing.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

That’s strange you aren’t even far away from, I’m more east though perhaps as it pulled away into the North Sea that’s where the damage came from - my fence was really damaged 30% of it was levelled flat. I was pretty shocked it’s seen some gales over the years, then again it’s seen better days. :p 

Think you’re absolutely right, areas to the E and N of our region copped it far worse from that storm. Maybe wind direction played a part, too? The unnamed storm was very noisy here though, I thought there’d be damage but nothing of note, a few dead twigs and small branches. Putting new felt on the allotment shed roof was overdue, I should have done it last summer, to be fair. January has been such a very windy month, I’m so over it, too much wind just gets on my tits at any time of the year. I do expect some strong winds in winter but it seems to have been howling for weeks on end now. Love to see some nice sunny and CALM high pressure for a while! Hope you get your fence sorted and it’s not too expensive.

Edited by stainesbloke
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

So the ECM and the UKMO seem to be on the same page, but starkly different to the gfs at just 144 hours out, which has much lower pressure over Scandi.

I hope this doesn’t turn into the Euros against the gfs again.

They’re like an old married couple which never agree ?

Edited by CK1981
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmmm.. :D the last showers that were wintry here was epic 

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Feeling colder and windy on Wednesday with wintry showers and sunny spells, fewer showers on Thursday. Overnight frosts are likely. Mainly dry, bright on Friday, occasional rain and milder later.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Hmmm.. :D the last showers that were wintry here was epic 

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Feeling colder and windy on Wednesday with wintry showers and sunny spells, fewer showers on Thursday. Overnight frosts are likely. Mainly dry, bright on Friday, occasional rain and milder later.

 

I’ll take wintry showers at the moment. They’ll probably give a better covering than the last pathetic slush fest we had!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I’ll take wintry showers at the moment. They’ll probably give a better covering than the last pathetic slush fest we had!

God do I hate slush! Went out to play in the slush on the 10th Dec event and my trainers were soaking wet almost straight away, looked white on top but was an inch of slush, Yuk!:bad:

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, snowray said:

God do I hate slush! Went out to play in the slush on the 10th Dec event and my trainers were soaking wet almost straight away, looked white on top but was an inch of slush, Yuk!:bad:

It’s vile stuff! All we want is one proper snowfall.....is that too much to ask these days ?

Link to post
Share on other sites

People spending hours in the MOD thread posting about every single run are nuts. An easterly has been showing in the distance for two weeks now but in the real world January is in the bag and there isn't much of winter left. October Fog Index 4 Weather models 0:p

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

People spending hours in the MOD thread posting about every single run are nuts. An easterly has been showing in the distance for two weeks now but in the real world January is in the bag and there isn't much of winter left. October Fog Index 4 Weather models 0:p

Part of me thinks an easterly will suddenly appear when we least expect it, but at the moment, it does seem to be watering down. With all the model flip flopping, it’s probably best to take a look in a few days time. Easier said than done though ?

Edited by CK1981
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Part of me thinks an easterly will suddenly appear when we least expect it, but at the moment, it does seem to be watering down. With all the model flip flopping, it’s probably best to take a look in a few days time. Easier said than done though ?

lol, it is all over the place at the moment, one minute there is an easterly, then it's gone, then it's back again, then it's vanished and so and so on:rofl:

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, lassie23 said:

lol, it is all over the place at the moment, one minute there is an easterly, then it's gone, then it's back again, then it's vanished and so and so on:rofl:

Which is usually a sign something is brewing. It’s causing the usual nervous breakdowns in the MOD thread though ?

Link to post
Share on other sites

My prediction having just spent 4 daus looking at snow capped mountains of the pyranees, is that sods law its april fools day on easter sunday so i reckon it will snow that day lol. In relation to the beast from tje east. They are so rare. But we have been watching this for a while now. We shall see. Not nailing my colours or umderpants to any post yet. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

It’s vile stuff! All we want is one proper snowfall.....is that too much to ask these days ?

Yes, It would seem to be too much to ask for these days. I have not even commented over on the MAD thread today, Steve M is not posting, tells you all you need to know. 

Up to 20 years or so ago there was always a bit of wintry weather to be had in the SE in winter, cold easterlies were a regular occurrence too, sometimes they were mainly dry but always very cold, with snowy breakdowns and areas West and North of our region often getting a dump in battleground set ups. I don't get it, and as for the models, well I don't see any improvements in winter if its snow your after, they are fine for zonality and topplers at best, but with northerlies and easterlies they struggle as much now as ever. 

Just as the models start to get close to agreeing on a proper cold spell with snowfall in the SE, its as if someone pushes a switch and its gone completely after a couple of runs, I heard that planet Nuburu, or is it Wormwood:cc_confused:, was due to arrive in late December, maybe its running a bit late and is confusing the models, or it could be the HAARP weather modification program, or Mmmmmm, the Russians?.....:pardon:

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Well im feeling very despondent at the moment but i do hope the easterly no matter how brief comes off for you long suffering south eastern guys.

Fingers crossed for upgrades tomorrow morning and some nice -8 /-10 uppers for you  :)

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well im feeling very despondent at the moment but i do hope the easterly no matter how brief comes off for you long suffering south eastern guys.

Fingers crossed for upgrades tomorrow morning and some nice -8 /-10 uppers for you  :)

Knowing our luck, the really cold uppers will miss us to the south, putting France into the freezer. 

Exeter is still bullish with regard an easterly flow in the south, so I won’t throw in the towel for a while yet.

Edited by CK1981
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, CK1981 said:

Knowing our luck, the really cold uppers will miss us to the south, putting France into the freezer. 

Exeter is still bullish with regard to an easterly flow in the south, so I won’t throw in the towel for a while yet.

Yes- TBH i just feel a bit fed up at the moment, believe me its been really dreadful IMBY over the last 3 winters too, the best for me is an east/north easterly too, we just cant seem to get them into our shores .

This represents our best and probably only chance this winter so i'm really hoping things upgrade for 00z runs, Exeter remain wedded to the easterly signal so hope is not abandoned just yet.

Early Feb is a brilliant time to get an easterly- Europe is now colder and will only get colder, fingers crossed..

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

News hot off the press- METO contigency planners favour a below average Feb .. :)

Perhaps Glosea is still seeing a scandy high and the NWP is out of sync.

Lets hope so!

Shoot i think i was meant to be in the moan /ramps thread sorry my bad!!

 

At least its good news .. :D

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

News hot off the press- METO contigency planners favour a below average Feb .. :)

Perhaps Glosea is still seeing a scandy high and the NWP is out of sync.

Lets hope so!

This is very encouraging!

One thing I will say about Exeter, for them to stick to the easterly outlook must show a pretty strong signal in Glosea. 

Now we have this from the contingency planners, I will certainly keep the faith.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...