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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

Captain Shortwave

By Captain Shortwave
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James Oliver Enthusiast

James Oliver

Posted
  • Location: Dover Kent 10m asl/ Leeds W Yorks 120m asl
  • Location: Dover Kent 10m asl/ Leeds W Yorks 120m asl
Posted
22 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Squall line now visible on radar, lets see how it develops (if at all)

Gathering force over SW now. 

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted

Just found this thread, if anyone is interested in the short term model output. Think it just like the mod thread though, keep it to model decision if posting.

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 02 Jan 2018 06:00 to Wed 03 Jan 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 01 Jan 2018 22:19
Forecaster: DAFIS

Levels 1 and 2 were issued for SE UK, N France, Benelux and NW Germany mainly for severe wind gusts. 

A level 1 was issued for Greece and Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation and severe wind gusts. 

DISCUSSION

A long-wave trough will cross Europe during Tuesday, bringing cold air masses from the north. The jet stream is curved at the leading edge of the trough and a strong jet streak is expected to influence the UK, and West Europe in general, at the early morning of Wednesday. At the surface, several low-pressure centers are located over Scandinavia and two more are about to form, one over Italy with an eastbound movement to Greece and the other one over Scotland moving towards Denmark by Wednesday which will result in a very strong pressure gradient, especially in the English Channel. 

.... West Europe ....

Moist air masses will be advected from the Atlantic towards France and Benelux where non-convective severe wind gusts will be the main threat. NWP models forecast steep lapse rates below this jet streak where CAPE will be about 200-300 J/kg, so scattered thunderstorms may form especially near the coasts. These storms will be able to produce severe wind gusts at the surface in the range of 25-35 m/s but limited lightning activity near the cold front. A level 2 was issued for the English Channel, France and Benelux to address the severity of the wind gusts. Non-convective severe wind gusts may as well verify in areas S-SE of the level 1 area drawn. 

4712C290-9B80-46D8-8236-7BEBA962D31A.thumb.png.1ff173b15a871875bf3565a107e049ef.png

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 02 Jan 2018 06:00 to Wed 03 Jan 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 01 Jan 2018 22:19
Forecaster: DAFIS

Levels 1 and 2 were issued for SE UK, N France, Benelux and NW Germany mainly for severe wind gusts. 

A level 1 was issued for Greece and Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation and severe wind gusts. 

DISCUSSION

A long-wave trough will cross Europe during Tuesday, bringing cold air masses from the north. The jet stream is curved at the leading edge of the trough and a strong jet streak is expected to influence the UK, and West Europe in general, at the early morning of Wednesday. At the surface, several low-pressure centers are located over Scandinavia and two more are about to form, one over Italy with an eastbound movement to Greece and the other one over Scotland moving towards Denmark by Wednesday which will result in a very strong pressure gradient, especially in the English Channel. 

.... West Europe ....

Moist air masses will be advected from the Atlantic towards France and Benelux where non-convective severe wind gusts will be the main threat. NWP models forecast steep lapse rates below this jet streak where CAPE will be about 200-300 J/kg, so scattered thunderstorms may form especially near the coasts. These storms will be able to produce severe wind gusts at the surface in the range of 25-35 m/s but limited lightning activity near the cold front. A level 2 was issued for the English Channel, France and Benelux to address the severity of the wind gusts. Non-convective severe wind gusts may as well verify in areas S-SE of the level 1 area drawn. 

4712C290-9B80-46D8-8236-7BEBA962D31A.thumb.png.1ff173b15a871875bf3565a107e049ef.png

Um I think I need to move.

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Um I think I need to move.

I agree! I'll come with you! How about Bruges? Cherna_24.gif

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James Oliver Enthusiast

James Oliver

Posted
  • Location: Dover Kent 10m asl/ Leeds W Yorks 120m asl
  • Location: Dover Kent 10m asl/ Leeds W Yorks 120m asl
Posted

Long range BBC forecast not looking great for an East or Northeasterly weather next week. 

BBC going for light winds and settled conditions.

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I agree! I'll come with you! How about Bruges? Cherna_24.gif

Nah i think I'm close enough to the level 2 to feel the winds, and may be see some lightning too. We can swap if you like.

 

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Dbarb Aficionado

Dbarb

Posted
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex
Posted

Nasty squall line now looks like its coming our way.

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moogyboobles Aficionado

moogyboobles

Posted
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, Essex
Posted
2 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

I think it might be an idea to do it Thursday. Just in case. 

 Thanks, I tend to agree. I'll enjoy the wind (whilst also hoping nobody gets hurt) from my warm house while I plough through some work instead. 
I am lucky, my thoughts I with the increasing number on the streets these days.

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SenlacJack Rising Star

SenlacJack

Posted
  • Location: St Leonards-on-Sea, East Sussex. 81 metres asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms.
  • Location: St Leonards-on-Sea, East Sussex. 81 metres asl
Posted

Words can barely describe how miserable the weather has been here all day, a real stinker.

The wind has been picking up a fair bit in the last couple of hours but nothing out of the ordinary so far. However I'm not getting complacent because as per the forecast and the radar, the worst is yet to reach this part of the South Coast.

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LightningLover Accomplished

LightningLover

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
Posted
3 minutes ago, SenlacJack said:

Words can barely describe how miserable the weather has been here all day, a real stinker.

The wind has been picking up a fair bit in the last couple of hours but nothing out of the ordinary so far. However I'm not getting complacent because as per the forecast and the radar, the worst is yet to reach this part of the South Coast.

Just as you said that, I heard quite a strong gust of wind, certainly the strongest of the evening so far.

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Soaring Hawk Community Regular

Soaring Hawk

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, crisp, calm and sunny
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
Posted

Squall is driving the rain into my bedroom window with such force it sounds as though bullets are hitting it. Some powerful gusts livening up this normally silent little spot. Alarm goes at 05:15 and I’m hoping for a quieter night than this! 

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LightningLover Accomplished

LightningLover

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
Posted (edited)

conditions rapidly going downhill, with heavy drizzle and gusty winds. a local weather station in Bexhill has recorded a gust of 60.0mph at 22:45.

http://www.discoverbexhill.com/bexhillweather.php

Edited by LightningLover
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LightningLover Accomplished

LightningLover

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
Posted

Very strong gust as i opened my window in the back garden, must have been around 55mph?

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James Oliver Enthusiast

James Oliver

Posted
  • Location: Dover Kent 10m asl/ Leeds W Yorks 120m asl
  • Location: Dover Kent 10m asl/ Leeds W Yorks 120m asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

56 highest gust so far however may well be getting stronger as I type.

We've just had one knock things over in the town. 

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Dbarb Aficionado

Dbarb

Posted
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex
Posted

Portland just had a 81mph gust!!!! Hold on everyone!

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
3 minutes ago, James Oliver said:

We've just had one knock things over in the town. 

Yep I'm sure the station is undereporting.

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James Oliver Enthusiast

James Oliver

Posted
  • Location: Dover Kent 10m asl/ Leeds W Yorks 120m asl
  • Location: Dover Kent 10m asl/ Leeds W Yorks 120m asl
Posted
Just now, alexisj9 said:

Yep I'm sure the station is undereporting.

I live between two tall buildings that funnel the winds from the sea. Wild out there 

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