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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    1 minute ago, shotski said:

    Luckily you don’t need to point this out to me as I’ll be in the Alps next week enjoying the altitude ?

    Lucky you, I can't get around much myself these days for various reason, or I certainly would not be spending so much time in Erith of all places. This will change though at some point in the not too distant future. 

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    If everyone on here could be friendly and (ideally) find a sense of humour, that would just be hunky dorey.

    So just to clarify CK1981 because I have not seen you say this 2,350 times in the last 136 pages of this thread you think there will be something interesting around Mid Month ??? Dont want to go to be

    Have nade my first mini snow man. First in 5 years.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Updating via sources will be of slight lag due to broadcast  timing!

    The gradients are micro-scale alining as modeled!..

    Convective push will depend on the flow exactions..and precip pick up-pep-..kent certainly looks prime 4 accumulate..although with any convective/evolving lake effect its an, honest nowcast prog..

    Veering of  wind will make MASSIVE difference to where and indeed what falls/accums..keep an eye on precip charts icon-arpege..

    I'll follow as a rule and post..

    Upgrades on snow potential must be expected across our region...given synoptic evolutions....

    Nxt 16-48 hrs look reasonable for surprise in nowcast scenario....regarding snow shower activity.....(south east)

    gfs-14-30.png

    gfs-14-30.png

    Screenshot_2018-02-03-15-39-45.png

    Screenshot_2018-02-03-15-39-09.png

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, wintry weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

    Afternoon all. :hi:

    South-east members, might like to bookmark this Dutch radar site.

    https://www.buienradar.nl/

    If and when, a flow kicks in to trigger convection, you'll be able to track any showers coming across the N.Sea.

    If uppers are cold enough, I think the forecast NE flow, could trigger a mid-Kent to E.Sussex streamer.

    Imo, certainly initially, too much northerly component, in the flow, for a Thames Streamer. Hope that turns ENE, into Monday though, as I'm staying over at Chislehurst for 2 weeks, looking after my son and 4 cats, whilst my daughter and her partner, jet off to Toronto, for their snow-fix. With the PV, in close attendance, she may well hit the jackpot.

    Chislehurst is 50 metres, higher than Lee ( it all helps) :D and colder.

    Whatever the outcome, I hope quite a few of you see some snow, as we enter, the final weeks of Winter.

    Regards,

    Tom.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    12z has pepped up the PPN on Tuesdays front, could be an inch or two in that.:yahoo:

    gfs-2-78.png

    gfs-2-84.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    38 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

    We have snow in the triangle, just very small grains in the air but definately snow.:cold:

    Nowt down here, but the north wind is starting to pick up.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    2 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

    Afternoon all. :hi:

    South-east members, might like to bookmark this Dutch radar site.

    https://www.buienradar.nl/

    If and when, a flow kicks in to trigger convection, you'll be able to track any showers coming across the N.Sea.

    If uppers are cold enough, I think the forecast NE flow, could trigger a mid-Kent to E.Sussex streamer.

    Imo, certainly initially, too much northerly component, in the flow, for a Thames Streamer. Hope that turns ENE, into Monday though, as I'm staying over at Chislehurst for 2 weeks, looking after my son and 4 cats, whilst my daughter and her partner, jet off to Toronto, for their snow-fix. With the PV, in close attendance, she may well hit the jackpot.

    Chislehurst is 50 metres, higher than Lee ( it all helps) :D and colder.

    Whatever the outcome, I hope quite a few of you see some snow, as we enter, the final weeks of Winter.

    Regards,

    Tom.

    If we can gradiate the flow via alignment-to more of an easterly inflow..then streamer activity would flag...then things get very interesting...and not out of the equation at present!!

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, wintry weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
    16 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

     I'm in Orpington Kent whats my chances of seeing snow.

    Hi abbie,

    My sister, lives in Tubbenden Lane and like myself, also a snow lover.  Orpington also does well in Thames Streamer events (ENE flow), although if the flow, as predicted initially, is to be NE, wouldnt entirely rule out, some sleet/snow showers, in Orpington.

    Regards,

    Tom. 

    Edited by TomSE12
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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    It looks like dew points will be our main problem tomorrow

    DP.thumb.png.c0062e542af0a71ae08edfe97d2c8086.png

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    2 minutes ago, KentishDan said:

    It looks like dew points will be our main problem tomorrow

    DP.thumb.png.c0062e542af0a71ae08edfe97d2c8086.png

    Coastal areas look wet......bulbs/dew and modification-north sea-...=warmer inflow.

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    I tell you what, this UKMO chart is veeeerryyyyyy good!:whistling:

    UW48-21.gif

    UW48-7.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

    and this one at T72, :D

    Now we sure must get something out of this lot!:yahoo:

    UW72-21.gif

    UW72-7.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Hullbridge Near Hockley,Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms,snow+gales
  • Location: Hullbridge Near Hockley,Essex

    I wouldnt worry about the daytime to be fair we are more likely to see snow starting to fall in the early hours of Monday with some of us waking up to a small covering.In this situations there will always be a high degree of uncertainty but personally for what it is worth as least most people in our region will at least see a little snow and come on the synoptics are much better than recent winters.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire

    Looking at the fax charts, and as I said yesterday, this isn’t a standard streamer scenario.

    There’s an occlusion moving west out of the continent towards our patch. This will bring more organised snow to a wider area.

    A standard streamer would show as a small trough in the applicable area.

    Just my thoughts anyway.

    Edited by CK1981
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    Posted
  • Location: Hullbridge Near Hockley,Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms,snow+gales
  • Location: Hullbridge Near Hockley,Essex
    1 minute ago, Sharpedge said:

    When and if we get a Thames streamer, can someone explain what sort of area it tends to cover.

     

    The clue is in the name perhaps?

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    Posted
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
    2 hours ago, Dami said:

    they must do. I like the the frozen french fries better.  I sent hubs on a mission. I said buy some things incase it snows. So he buys beer, coffee, crisps, and an extra pair of  jogging bottoms for me.

    i got potatoes, carrots, broccoli, cauliflower and irn-bru.:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    13 minutes ago, snowray said:

    I tell you what, this UKMO chart is veeeerryyyyyy good!:whistling:

    UW48-21.gif

    UW48-7.gif

    That should be an ENEly, with a trough over the SE. What are peoples thoughts, is this Thames streamer territory or is it just a trough?:yahoo:

    Edited by snowray
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    Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
    2 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:

    When and if we get a Thames streamer, can someone explain what sort of area it tends to cover.

     

    Thames estuary across south London and down towards Epsom and Guildford 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    New ash green 3.2c rain

    West kingsdown @240M was sleet on the way through ~ 2.5c

    S

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    Posted
  • Location: St Leonards-on-Sea, East Sussex. 81 metres asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms.
  • Location: St Leonards-on-Sea, East Sussex. 81 metres asl

    A vile day here in St Leonards-on-Sea. Dull and wet with the temperature hovering around 3-4c. The only thing remotely positive is the fact it's not blowing a gale.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
    1 minute ago, SenlacJack said:

    A vile day here in St Leonards-on-Sea. Dull and wet with the temperature hovering around 3-4c. The only thing remotely positive is the fact it's not blowing a gale.

    Same here, 100%, authentic, sleet free rain. Let’s hope our luck turns tomorrow evening!

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    Posted
  • Location: Herstmonceux, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: extremes of any sort
  • Location: Herstmonceux, East Sussex

    Battle - grey dull, wet, constant rain, not heavy, just constant big drops, nothing remotely wintry even at a bit of extra height.

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    Yes the UKMO tells you this is a evolving situation I don't think anything is set in stone past Monday. This is going to be a very interesting winter period and I am sure we will see surprises popping up. I really hope at some point we get a front from the east or southeast to give our area heavy snow and I am sure a lot of us on here are craving for that to happen, just reminds me back to January 2013. We still have some winter left to go and there is still enough time for this to happen. We can only hope but cannot change the atmosphere but we are in s good place at the moment I hope this winter will go out leaving something to remember. Let's see how the next few days unfold and hope our dreams and wishes come true all the best ???

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    15 minutes ago, snowray said:

    That should be an ENEly, with a trough over the SE. What are peoples thoughts, is this Thames streamer territory or is it just a trough?:yahoo:

    That is indeed a ENE flow I like the look of it.....

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