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Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

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30 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Disagree. 

Living in the SE of England I would never wish a way a snow chance. Yes even one that produces 1 hour of snow before rain. 

At least it’s snow - give me an hour of snow preceding rain then just rain anyday! 

You live in the UK  - cherish every flake that falls!! 

Snow chance (slim chance) looks north of M25 tomorrow anyway. So you’ll get your wish for an all rain event by the looks of it anyway. 

I remember it snowed one day last winter, for much of an afternoon. Big wet flakes fell quite heavily but it was just that tiny bit too warm to settle. A complete waste of time and heating.

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3 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

I remember it snowed one day last winter, for much of an afternoon. Big wet flakes fell quite heavily but it was just that tiny bit too warm to settle. A complete waste of time and heating.

You’ll need your heating on tomorrow for cold rain as well. 

Back from Canada yesterday, Dog walk this morning = Waterlogged fields, saturated ground and more rain... welcome home! 

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23 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

North of M25?  It's a circle (roughly).  Which bit are you on about?

I’m on about the north side of your rough circle 

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After today's drab drizzle affair,I cannot wait for tomorrow's drab

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24 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

You’ll need your heating on tomorrow for cold rain as well. 

Back from Canada yesterday, Dog walk this morning = Waterlogged fields, saturated ground and more rain... welcome home! 

Yes, but if it was 13C and raining I’d switch the heating off and save a few quid. I don’t like all the mud either, we could do with a decent cold spell to dry everything out a bit and kill off some of these germs going around. Unfortunately, our climate isn’t great for that very often. At least you’ve had your snow and cold fix this year.

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deleted

Edited by snowray

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1 minute ago, snowray said:

Sliight upgrade on the Euro4 model, snow slightly further south and less marginal. Fingers crossed that we all see a few flakes, better get up early though on Sunday morning because it could be a blink an you will miss it type of affair.:laugh:

Oh, remember its only the leading edge that will be of sleet or snow for us down here, North of London will do best....again!

 

18012112_2018.gif

 

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This is a big upgrade too, shows settled snow into EA around Essex, there was nothing this far south on earlier runs.:)

18012115_2018.gif

Edited by snowray

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38 minutes ago, snowray said:

This is a big upgrade too, shows settled snow into EA around Essex, there was nothing this far south on earlier runs.:)

18012115_2018.gif

GFS 18Z is also an upgrade:

AB40C644-ACE0-45C0-8E78-004425711495.thumb.jpeg.bc3e179688a04b8e1c0002eb783541b4.jpeg430B1A93-A2A9-439C-8C8F-82BC0C3908E3.thumb.jpeg.e8fc70a87ffda214d164ac3f6a369b83.jpeg

The ICON is even more interesting it really slows down the progression of front staying as snow for longer. 

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13 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

GFS 18Z is also an upgrade:

AB40C644-ACE0-45C0-8E78-004425711495.thumb.jpeg.bc3e179688a04b8e1c0002eb783541b4.jpeg430B1A93-A2A9-439C-8C8F-82BC0C3908E3.thumb.jpeg.e8fc70a87ffda214d164ac3f6a369b83.jpeg

The ICON is even more interesting it really slows down the progression of front staying as snow for longer. 

We really do want to see the front slow right down as it hits the colder air in the east, but at the end of the day it would be nice just to see a few falling flakes, after all theres nothing else on the horizon in the foreseeable for us southeasterners.

Edited by snowray

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Where I see the dividing line east of that red line and I think you’ll at least see some falling snow for a time. I notice Euro4 has some accumulation for eastern counties in this region, some folk may be in for a surprise.

F109D205-FCBB-4AFE-97B2-90A06E46BFC3.thumb.jpeg.43337357ce57c96ce785379361274af9.jpeg

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That looks like a very generous line you have drawn there Daniel, fingers crossed that you are right though.:)

Back in the 90's there was a similar event to this, started off as sleet, then heavy snow for a good hour and on higher ground around here, about 60/70m ended up with a couple of inches of settled snow, turned to rain in the end but was fun while it lasted.

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It’s colder than forecasted 1.5C the app has me at 3C this bodes well.

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Automated forecast looks a tad wintry not especially far from here. Knife edge this is.

1ED82612-BFB8-4BD5-A14F-F675A8E066E0.thumb.png.e6f0352c08631277fa70100f85651b68.png

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St Albans though has always looked like one of the favoured locations for a bit of wintriness, in fact North London northwards will almost certainly see some of the white stuff for a while. Its us lot south of the river that might not be so lucky. Seems that the front is moving in ahead of schedule, this is a good thing in a way, as long as it slows down over us that is.

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Yup temps are lower, thats good news, 1c at Heathrow, 2c central London, few 0c around too like at Northolt. 

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Dewpoint has dropped by 0.4ºc to 0.1ºc, with temps dropping by 0.5 to 1.3ºc in the past hour at my nearest weather station in Hyde Park, which bodes well for those outside the warmth of London and even me. Let's hope the temps keep dropping before any ppn arrives.

Edited by Sno' problem
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16 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yup temps are lower, thats good news, 1c at Heathrow, 2c central London, few 0c around too like at Northolt. 

I’m actually quite shocked with the temp it’s dropped a fair bit 0.8C and this is not the best location. :shok:

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2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’m actually quite shocked with the temp it’s dropped a fair bit 0.8C and this is not the best location. :shok:

Tell me about it... It can be literally a matter of a mile between sleet/rain for me and snow just a wee bit away from here.

Dewpoint has suddenly gone up to 0.4ºc in the past 30 mins and the temp up a touch as well. Doesn't bode well.

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2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’m actually quite shocked with the temp it’s dropped a fair bit 0.8C and this is not the best location. :shok:

Tell me about it... It can be literally a matter of a mile between sleet/rain for me and snow just a wee bit away from here.

Dewpoint has suddenly gone up to 0.4ºc in the past 30 mins and the temp up a touch as well. Doesn't bode well.

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3 minutes ago, Sno' problem said:

Tell me about it... It can be literally a matter of a mile between sleet/rain for me and snow just a wee bit away from here.

Dewpoint has suddenly gone up to 0.4ºc in the past 30 mins and the temp up a touch as well. Doesn't bode well.

I know what you mean I’ve known there to be snow falling to my north, east and south. Temp now 0.9C gone up +0.1 as it stands what would be falling would be snow. And back down to 0.8C lol..

Edited by Daniel*

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1c at Heathrow with a DP of 0 would suggest snow... 

The only saving grace I think I can see here is the PPN is about 4 hours early than any model I have seen. 

Now it could mean that the models have been to bullish about the fight the cold air will put up. 

Or it means that more of us will see snow as the temp stays low enough for longer

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Very borderline

Edited by Surrey

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Temperatures]Temperatures

 

 

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Temp 0.5c holding steady...

Expecting some snow here all be it temp.

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