SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

[Dami]

unless it gets a lot colder it aint gonna snow here.

[Frostbite1980]

Take a look at perb 18 in FI 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=18&mode=0&carte=1

[lassie23]

It's coming.......only 10 days to go

[Laurence Hill]

6 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Take a look at perb 18 in FI 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=18&mode=0&carte=1

What does it show?

[Frostbite1980]

Very High heights over Scandinavia and Greenland, low heights to the south (deeply negative AO and negative NAO)giving a bitter easterly feed and snow event nationwide. If this was to come off (which it most likely wont lol) the whole of the UK would see some action. Also a pattern that would not get broken down easily

I expect to see more and more GEFS to show similar Synoptics over the coming days as the imminent SSW takes place.

Edited February 8, 2018 by Frostbite1980

[Met4Cast]

I didn't expect the differences between BBC and Met Office forecasts to happen so quickly. 

It's basically Meteogroup/BBC against the Met Office and pretty much all of the models, then.. 

[Lampostwatcher]

UPGRADE ALERT 

?Louise Lear showed Saturday's front going through 

then in the Atlantic all white snow showers and said 

different story come 2nd half of weekend ALL snow blowing around in the wind 

[E17boy]

OMG Snoray these chards are amazing sweet candy if only they can to reality. I am trying to control myself and not get too excited ? I know it's so hard but we need to be cautious as well to avoid any dissapointments we have been down this path many a times and the feeling of seeing downgrades or good charts getting watered down is not great.

i know we have got a potential SSW so this is in our favour but even so it's not a guarantee that our shores will see the fruits of it. 

I think to be honest a lot of us have our hopes out for this freeze to materialise even so now more than before as we have got the barrel of  winters end llooking at us. 

Controlling the excitement let's hope winter goes out giving us something to remember bitterly cold easiterly winds, frequent snow showers then more organised heavy snow moving in from the continent. If only this cold just happen there will be a lot of happy hearts ?. 

Fingers crossed we are at the mist critical time of model watching someone has to hear the cries of us collies. 

You gonna get me singing again now all these great super charts.

look into the charts.........don't tell me they not worth crying for......,.,,,don't tell me thy not worth waiting for.............coz you know it's true everything we do...........we do it for you ❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️

Told you I am getting over excited 

fingers crossed x let's hope ❄️️ Hears us. 

Regards ????

[snowray]

14 minutes ago, E17boy said:

OMG Snoray these chards are amazing sweet candy if only they can to reality. I am trying to control myself and not get too excited ? I know it's so hard but we need to be cautious as well to avoid any dissapointments we have been down this path many a times and the feeling of seeing downgrades or good charts getting watered down is not great.

i know we have got a potential SSW so this is in our favour but even so it's not a guarantee that our shores will see the fruits of it. 

I think to be honest a lot of us have our hopes out for this freeze to materialise even so now more than before as we have got the barrel of  winters end llooking at us. 

Controlling the excitement let's hope winter goes out giving us something to remember bitterly cold easiterly winds, frequent snow showers then more organised heavy snow moving in from the continent. If only this cold just happen there will be a lot of happy hearts ?. 

Fingers crossed we are at the mist critical time of model watching someone has to hear the cries of us collies. 

You gonna get me singing again now all these great super charts.

look into the charts.........don't tell me they not worth crying for......,.,,,don't tell me thy not worth waiting for.............coz you know it's true everything we do...........we do it for you ❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️

Told you I am getting over excited 

fingers crossed x let's hope ❄️️ Hears us. 

Regards ????

Calm down E17boy. We need the ECM to come on board, its coming out now, I've already got bad nervous twitches just thinking about this last chance saloon going wrong, it better not, the SSW is this weekend so thats a dead cert at least.

If we get a decent cold spell around D10, it could easily continue into early March.

[lassie23]

i'm going to stick my neck out and say that we are going to possibly, certainly, hopefully  get a major cold spell for sure ,fingers crossed...maybe

[Frostbite1980]

8 minutes ago, snowray said:

Calm down E17boy. We need the ECM to come on board, its coming out now, I've already got bad nervous twitches just thinking about this last chance saloon going wrong, it better not, the SSW is this weekend so thats a dead cert at least.

If we get a decent cold spell around D10, it could easily continue into early March.

ECM not great considering earlier runs. HLB not so prevalent 

Edited February 8, 2018 by Frostbite1980

[E17boy]

Oh no ECM not keen on heights to our north mmmhhh. Come on gett on board please ?

[snowblind]

46 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I didn't expect the differences between BBC and Met Office forecasts to happen so quickly. 

It's basically Meteogroup/BBC against the Met Office and pretty much all of the models, then.. 

What sort of reputation do the metogroup have does anyone know? Appart from now supplying data to the BBC I've never heard of them. Did they used to be called something else?

[Met4Cast]

Just now, snowblind said:

What sort of reputation do the metogroup have does anyone know? Appart from now supplying data to the BBC I've never heard of them. Did they used to be called something else?

I've only heard of them because of their weather apps.. 

[Frostbite1980]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

I've only heard of them because of their weather apps.. 

Let’s be honest they only got the contract because of price, I deal with procurement near enough every day and you have to decide the percentage of price versus quality and there is no way the BBC went for quality as the Metoffice are meteorolical leaders (along with a few others) worldwide. They will have gone 70/30 in favour of price but I know using past experience this will back fire. Expect this to be in the news over the coming months/years!

[smarklew]

Does anyone use Weather Live App? I signed up for a free trial this week, and it is forecasting heavy snow for me (Tunbridge wells) tomorrow morning at 9am. I’m trying to work out which model it uses cos none of my other apps or websites agree.....! 

Cant see it will happen, but it’s a very pretty graphic! 

[snowray]

Its getting there though, T216 looking very good.

[danm]

@Nick L on one of the other threads mentioned that Meteo Group use EC data at 3hr intervals and 9km resolution vs the Met Office who have 1hr intervals ans a 1.5km resolution, which could very well explain the drop in quality and resolution of the new BBC forecasts. 

Nick - please correct me if I’ve misquoted you! 

[Coopsy]

If the front slows and doesn’t get to the SE until dark we might be in luck otherwise I can’t see it sticking on the back edge only sleety blurgh 

Edited February 8, 2018 by c00ps

[snowray]

So ECM has come on board, we are talking D9/D10. All going according to plan.....for now.

[E17boy]

Phewwwe Well done ECM 

?????

ends good GAME STILL ON

 

[snowray]

And here Euro4 for midday tomorrow. Wintriness certainly about.

[E17boy]

20 minutes ago, snowray said:

And here Euro4 for midday tomorrow. Wintriness certainly about.

Hey Snowray I am in Milton Keynes tomorrow again for work and according to the phone weather app was saying snow there from 8 till 11. Don't know how true that will be but interesting ?

[snowray]

1 minute ago, E17boy said:

Hey Snowray I am in Milton Keynes tomorrow again for work and according to the phone weather app was saying snow there from 8 till 11. Don't know how true that will be but interesting ?

I think theres more chance of some flakes up in MK then there is around London, I noticed that some models are showing snow north of London, particularly East Anglia tomorrow. Arome for example.

[snowray]