SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

[Spikey M]

1 hour ago, Uxbridge90 said:

-5.3c last night, although I'm sure it felt colder the night before! 

Tomorrow looks pretty rubbish for snow doesn't it? Wet, cold and on the wrong side of marginal!

 

I’d be very surprised if anything at all from the main band falls as snow other than over higher ground perhaps. The showers behind it may, but as with all westerlies, we are unlikely to get an invite to that particular party.

[yamkin]

This morning's GFS model is still showing the back edge of the rain band on Friday turning to snow from early afternoon into the evening across the SE including London!!

The same above scenario is being shown for Sunday too!!

[Justin123]

4 minutes ago, yamkin said:

This morning's GFS model is still showing the back edge of the rain band on Friday turning to snow from early afternoon into the evening across the SE including London!!

The same above scenario is being shown for Sunday too!!

Thank youuuu

[Justin123]

8 minutes ago, yamkin said:

This morning's GFS model is still showing the back edge of the rain band on Friday turning to snow from early afternoon into the evening across the SE including London!!

The same above scenario is being shown for Sunday too!!

Also yamkin, it’s after the main band of PPN I believe may have a chance to dry up a little for a higher chance it a slushy dusting ? and yes I agree no snow from the main band above 200m but afternoon evening, high chance !

[Laurence Hill]

Some years ago there was a potential snow alert (it didn’t happen) and I subsequently bought a snow shovel from Tesco. They had also seen the alert and had loads of shovels at the entrance to the store.

I have had this snow shovel some five years now and all it’s ever been used for is shovelling leaves in the autumn, says it all really.

[Matty88]

My take on things - potential for limited wintry precip for us tomorrow. I just can't get excited though - it's not a strong enough potential - and any wintry precip will be moving through at a fair lick. Dustings at best in my view. 

Going onto Sunday - again, it's a weak set up for snow for anyone in SE/EA, nothing significant precip wise sticking around. Why would the met want to issue a warning for us on such weak potential? 

Further ahead - we should all be concentrating on developments with the Stratospheric set up from next week - the GFS is practically rendered useless by this and will change considerably by next week - keep your eyes out for the potential for a strong easterly mid-latter end of Feb. Afraid this won't become clear until nearer the time - the charts (particularly GFS) are hopeless at sorting this out at this range

[Justin123]

1 minute ago, Matty88 said:

My take on things - potential for limited wintry precip for us tomorrow. I just can't get excited though - it's not a strong enough potential - and any wintry precip will be moving through at a fair lick. Dustings at best in my view. 

Going onto Sunday - again, it's a weak set up for snow for anyone in SE/EA, nothing significant precip wise sticking around. Why would the met want to issue a warning for us on such weak potential? 

Further ahead - we should all be concentrating on developments with the Stratospheric set up from next week - the GFS is practically rendered useless by this and will change considerably by next week - keep your eyes out for the potential for a strong easterly mid-latter end of Feb. Afraid this won't become clear until nearer the time - the charts (particularly GFS) are hopeless at sorting this out at this range

They will want to issue a warning for ice as temps tommorow night drop below freezing after the late afternoon rain and freezing temps soon after, they issue warnings for no reason anyway, likewise yesterday mornings event was a dusting even where heaviest ppn was and no ice formed so no need for warning.

[Methuselah]

I'm losing the will to live!

Just caught the latest BBC lunchtimer: 2 - 3 days' 'bitterly cold' 7-9C maxima....The Southwest might even have to endure a frigid 11C!

Give me strength!

[lawrenk]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm losing the will to live!

Just caught the latest BBC lunchtimer: 2 - 3 days' 'bitterly cold' 7-9C maxima....The Southwest might even have to endure a frigid 11C!

Give me strength!

They never seem to do that in July do they? Ie “temperatures could reach a sultry  21C.”

[Chris101]

18 minutes ago, Justin123 said:

They will want to issue a warning for ice as temps tommorow night drop below freezing after the late afternoon rain and freezing temps soon after, they issue warnings for no reason anyway, likewise yesterday mornings event was a dusting even where heaviest ppn was and no ice formed so no need for warning.

....And yet just up the coast from you in Ipswich we had snow and graupel showers in the late after noon and just after dark, they then cleared and the temp dropped to -2c which in turn froze all settled snow and slush solid. Then in the early hours we had 2cm off snow fall on our nicely prepared crunchy surface (more than a dusting). Unfortunately its like storms......One mans warning can be completely called for but just down the road another mans can seem a complete waste of time.

[lassie23]

34 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm losing the will to live!

Just caught the latest BBC lunchtimer: 2 - 3 days' 'bitterly cold' 7-9C maxima....The Southwest might even have to endure a frigid 11C!

Give me strength!

According to the BBC we have been in the deep freeze for a week now

[Kent Blizzard]

3 hours ago, Lampostwatcher said:

I'm thinking we may get a warning for Sunday nearer the time

Funny you say that because I had this conversation at Lunchtime regarding this, the " trusted " weather apps the other day showed snow for Sunday 

As for Weather Warnings - Who remembers that April event a good few years back, was a Sunday night, took many by surprise including the Meto I believe?

Edited February 8, 2018 by Kent Blizzard

[KDME]

1 hour ago, Sharpedge said:

Some years ago there was a potential snow alert (it didn’t happen) and I subsequently bought a snow shovel from Tesco. They had also seen the alert and had loads of shovels at the entrance to the store.

I have had this snow shovel some five years now and all it’s ever been used for is shovelling leaves in the autumn, says it all really.

I thought I was the only one who brings out the red shovel to clear leaves in autumn!  I am so relieved I am not alone 

[Daniel*]

54 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm losing the will to live!

Just caught the latest BBC lunchtimer: 2 - 3 days' 'bitterly cold' 7-9C maxima....The Southwest might even have to endure a frigid 11C!

Give me strength!

Well their temperature projections are often garbage what was it 7C on this Monday think we barely got to 4C in London with NW airstream this temps are more likely, but with showers the temp will drop quick. It’s looking very likely the wintry showers will also affect our region however in NW it is likely to be much ‘significant’.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Well their temperature projections are often garbage what was it 7C on this Monday think we barely got to 4C in London with NW airstream this temps are more likely, but with showers the temp will drop quick. It’s looking very likely the wintry showers will also affect our region however in NW it is likely to be much ‘significant’.

The discrepancy between the weather warning's and the BBC's forecasts might be a reflection of the fact that the Beeb's data now come from MeteoGroup...Just a thought?

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The discrepancy between the weather warning's and the BBC's forecasts might be a reflection of the fact that the Beeb's data now come from MeteoGroup...Just a thought?

Well it’s always been poor. 

Even last night the minima were underdone some parts of London got down to -5C albeit they are known frost hollows here it was -3C which is really cold for here, the app & forecast had me at -1C. There can be a lot of local variation even less than a kilometer away. Temps are very tricky to predict nonetheless. I imagine if there was snow cover across some parts last night we would have seen lows of -10C in prone areas.

Edited February 8, 2018 by Daniel*

[lassie23]

meanwhile, in the MOD thread.................. will the SSW delivery?

[KDME]

1 hour ago, Matty88 said:

Further ahead - we should all be concentrating on developments with the Stratospheric set up from next week - the GFS is practically rendered useless by this and will change considerably by next week - keep your eyes out for the potential for a strong easterly mid-latter end of Feb. Afraid this won't become clear until nearer the time - the charts (particularly GFS) are hopeless at sorting this out at this range

I think there should be a huge health warning attached to the possible developments in latter Feb.  I get the feeling some people are expecting this:  in Hyde Park.

Seen toooo many fabled hysterical developments over past years, which led to a chilly couple of days and en mass wrist slitting on the MOD thread and beyond.

Edited February 8, 2018 by Weather_Novice

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, Weather_Novice said:

I think there should be a huge health warning attached to the possible developments in latter Feb.  I get the feeling some people are expecting this:  

Seen toooo many fabled hysterical developments over past years, which led to a chilly couple of days and en mass wrist slitting on the MOD thread and beyond.

I'm expecting at least to my knees, waist high is wishful thinking.

[KDME]

16 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I'm expecting at least to my knees, waist high is wishful thinking.

Covers my shoes, I will call it quits and look forward to spring!

This week, a fortnight ago - the charts were showing a potential easterly .... what did we get?

Edited February 8, 2018 by Weather_Novice

[Spikey M]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/must_see/42982886/skiers-and-snowboards-in-the-paris-snow

Paris is what, 2-300 miles away from me? I hate this Swearing AGAINing country. 

[Daniel*]

12 minutes ago, Spikey M said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/must_see/42982886/skiers-and-snowboards-in-the-paris-snow

Paris is what, 2-300 miles away from me? I hate this Swearing AGAINing country. 

So near but yet so far..

 

[alexisj9]

19 minutes ago, Weather_Novice said:

Covers my shoes, I will call it quits and look forward to spring!

This week, a fortnight ago - the charts were showing a potential easterly .... what did we get?

We did get an easterly, just yet again rather benign.

[KDME]

7 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

We did get an easterly, just yet again rather benign.

There were many who were getting SOO excited but this is what it always ends up in reality!  Has been like this for 5 years.  Hence, my recommendation on a health warning for the SSW and what may (or probably will not knowing our luck) come about.

 

Edited February 8, 2018 by Weather_Novice

[Daniel*]

Tomorrow afternoon is rather snowy looking on GFS I have my doubts.