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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards


Captain Shortwave

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

Just the faintest of dustings. here in Chislehurst overnight. Bit different to what my daughter will be waking up to in Toronto, a bit later on. 5 to 10 cms of snow, although some models were predicting 20 cms, a few days ago. I knew I should have smuggled myself on board her flight. on Monday.:D

Here's a link to the latest weather, in Toronto, one way of getting a snow fix. :cold:

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/weather/ontario/toronto?wx_auto_reload=

Regards,

Tom.

Edited by TomSE12
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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

Morning, Snowed here around 5am with a very slight dusting. We maybe in for a real taste of winter from the 19th Feb or thereabouts.

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Posted
  • Location: Blackboys, East Sussex, 275ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Blackboys, East Sussex, 275ft ASL

I had a flurry of messages on the WhatsApp group for our kids school this morning, "Were the roads Ok?", "Is the school going to be closed?" etc, etc. On dropping the kids off at school they had to go straight in as the playground was apparently too slippy to safely play in. 

As a kid growing up in Scotland I remember wading through waist deep snow to the school bus stop and waiting in a blizzard for the bus that didn't make it. After half an hour a parent came over to say she'd phoned the school and the bus couldn't make it so we'd have to walk. Big kids looked after the little kids and we all set off at about 8.30 to walk the 3 miles to school. The first bit was an easy 800ft downhill, then through the town and 800ft up the other side. As I remember it we got to school about 11.30, had lunch, and then set off home again. We got home after dark in a slightly lesser blizzard, had tea, and then went sledging in the woods above the houses - and did pretty much the same again the next day. In one way it was fairly safe as there was so much snow there wasn't much traffic outside the centre of town. 

Edited by Convergence
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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, UK
  • Location: South Norfolk, UK

Raining now, going to melt what little snow we've had. Still the kids got excited to see grass snow so worth it. Let's look to month-end now for any more fun.

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Posted
  • Location: Ditchling East Sussex , on the South Downs 12 miles North of Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , Sun and lightning
  • Location: Ditchling East Sussex , on the South Downs 12 miles North of Brighton

Snowing In Rottingdean sussex at the moment right on the beach!

Edited by therecoil
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

If the next event is any thing like this one i'd rather pass.:lazy:

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Raining up here, after no overnight snow. Och well, it could be worse!:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Raining up here, after no overnight snow. Och well, it could be worse!:santa-emoji:

That's about as bad as it gets.

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Posted
  • Location: Blackboys, East Sussex, 275ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Blackboys, East Sussex, 275ft ASL

I'm feeling more positive by the day. Last night was slim pickings compared with what we really desire, but - I've got lying snow outside at the moment, I've just checked the 06z GFS and we've got a possibility of some back edge snow on Friday, followed by another (very slim) chance of some sleet on Sunday. After that, it's probably a few days wait before we can tuck into our starter before the main course arrives around the 22nd or thereabouts. And there's a very good chance that the main course will be an Eastern dish which always goes down particularly well in this part of the world.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

50 feet up the hill, theres a covering on all surfaces, 50 feet back down the hill, the snow has melted

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Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex

Sunny but snowing again.

Sadly a fair bit of our cm and a bit has melted but can’t complain as it seems we’ve been luckier here than many.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

I don't think Friday is going to deliver for us, unfortunately.

The FAX shows the front moving through but the cold air doesn't dig back down until after the front has cleared Eastwards

FAX1.thumb.gif.77cd885f3bd664f638fb0b7f00ec4457.gifFAX2.thumb.gif.ae65cc913745fff648b2ce7c80198dd0.gif

APERGE similar, the warm sector associated with the shortwave is just too far above marginal

APERGE1.thumb.jpg.22838964d6ec46c559465e98497ca86b.jpgAPERGE2.thumb.jpg.ffeffbc01d5fdda125aba1716dd2e72f.jpg

So rain largely, turning colder after the PPN clears.

The GFS which has been the most consistent model in calling for back edge snowfall has also decided largely against the idea

GFS1.thumb.gif.c8f224a6ce0010fea884ccb6f07faab2.gifGFS2.thumb.gif.b477c196e51869337d8970edb544bfa5.gif

The next front on Saturday moving through annoyingly removes the cold air before the PPN arrives, so rain again then too

Sat.thumb.gif.97bca0ad0b50eab1c1c4cf4ad3062249.gif

All eyes towards the 19th onwards. Fairly high confidence for high lat blocking and perhaps finally, some proper cold. But for now, I think our chances of snow during this cold spell from this point onwards have faded.

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
46 minutes ago, Convergence said:

I've just checked the 06z GFS and we've got a possibility of some back edge snow on Friday, followed by another (very slim) chance of some sleet on Sunday. After that, it's probably a few days wait before we can tuck into our starter before the main course arrives around the 22nd or thereabouts. And there's a very good chance that the main course will be an Eastern dish which always goes down particularly well in this part of the world.

As I mentioned in the MOD yesterday, GFS tends to undercook the modification a northwesterly flow has gone through across southern UK, it often shows back edge snow as a cold northwest flow undercuts, but in reality the flow is not cold or dry enough at the surface to allow snow to fall apart from say over 200m. Northerly direct from the arctic undercutting a front a different story as it is warmed less over cooler waters north of UK. 

Agree, though, of a greater chance than usual of the Beast from the East by the end of the month, given SSW, favourable MJO phase, easterly QBO and approach of solar min combined.

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
58 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

That's about as bad as it gets.

See, it has got worse, lass: it's now very dark with horrible sleety rain falling!:angry:

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Just seen the weather ITV, apparently the showers still effecting some areas are still associated with last night front, it hasn't yet cleared us, is that right, or are they really losing the plot.

Here no sign of last night's little flurries. I don't think we've had anything fall since them either.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Just seen the weather ITV, apparently the showers still effecting some areas are still associated with last night front, it hasn't yet cleared us, is that right, or are they really losing the plot.

Here no sign of last night's little flurries. I don't think we've had anything fall since them either.

There's the odd flurry floating about but nothing more than that

5a7ae3405cf90_ScreenShot2018-02-07at11_29_45.thumb.png.36016aa46ea66180ef8735bbe14cba75.png

Those too will fade away this afternoon.

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex

Beyond pathetic attempt from mother nature at snow last night.

There were just enough flakes to make the pavements extremely slippery. 

Roll on the lack of storms in the summer!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

I can hardly contain my excitement of those thunderstorms I won't have.  

 

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
55 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Just seen the weather ITV, apparently the showers still effecting some areas are still associated with last night front, it hasn't yet cleared us, is that right, or are they really losing the plot.

Here no sign of last night's little flurries. I don't think we've had anything fall since them either.

Just hanging on with it last occluding breath.

 

front.png

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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

Very frustrating isn’t it.

Conditions were perfect for snow to fall and settle last few days, but little in the way of ppn. Was hoping for better from this cold spell, but yet again it has failed to deliver much of note for most of us.

All eggs in the basket towards the last week of Feb now, if that fails then time is about to be called on another poor winter overall, although slightly better than the last few to be fair, but that’s not saying much!

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