SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Wonder what the Daily Express is making of it all

Hope they keep their noses out of this one.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Heres an animation of the latest GFS  (850hPa temps) 

Edited February 3, 2018 by The East has Ceased

[Vortex3929]

Nice animation. Thank you for that  those uppers don't really suggest anything for us in se to worry over. -10 is very good. Someone posted about the north sea sst's being 7c i think it was? Surely conducive for some convective activity for e/ne facing coasts, we hope anyway. Any likelihood of some troughs kicking up from Nick sussex or sm if hes awake

[SMU]

Yes

UKMO 00z very good increasing snow chances from Mon - Weds as winds get more & more ENE then E !

prettygood run with only a small milder window at day 6 before much colder air follows on..

[Tom Quintavalle]

A very early good Saturday morning to you, all.

I'd like to take issue, with regard to Thames Streamers, to some posts on the Mod thread. I've lived in prime TS country, all my life : Bromley ( N.W, Kent ) and Lee, (S.E.London ) and I've experienced, quite a few TS events. It's simply not true to say, you need a strong easterly flow. I'd like to quote a couple of examples. Firstly, Xmas/Boxing Day 1970.Secondly, 8th Jan, 2003.  For the areas I've mentioned above, the flow, has to be specifically ENE, so the air remains in contact, with a source of moisture, for as long as possible. As important, are the 850 temps, the colder the better, the differential between the upper air temp and temp of the Thames Estuary/River Thames, creates great instability .Now those examples.

Xmas Day/Boxing Day 1970. Heavy snow showers, overnight, with one almighty crack of thunder, gave the Bromley area, snowfall of 4 to 6 inches and it wasn't that strong an ENE flow. See chart below.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?uur=1800&var=2&nmaps=24&map=1&model=noaa&jaar=1970&maand=12&dag=26

8th Jan. 2003. An even lighter ENE flow, gave my area of Bromley, a covering of 4 inches, 6 inches in the hillier south of the borough, i.e, Biggin Hill. See chart below.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?uur=0000&var=1&nmaps=24&map=1&model=avn&jaar=2003&maand=01&dag=08

As you can see, from these charts, the flow isn't especially strong, certainly not a la Jan 1987 or Feb 2009, indeed the synoptics ,look rather innocuous, at face value. More importantly , we had convergence and decently cold uppers.

IMO, the possible streamer event Sunday night into Monday. looks to have, a fraction too much of a northerly component, to the flow, for a Thames Streamer. As long as the 850s are cold enough, I would favour a mid-Kent to East Sussex Streamer, on a NE flow.

Whatever the outcome, I hope some of us get lucky and see some white stuff.

Regards,

Tom. 

Edited February 3, 2018 by TomSE12

[lassie23]

It's raining this morning

[Dami]

yeah I got rain, but i did look out the window ever hopeful.

[stainesbloke]

Rain here too and 3C. Vile.

[That ECM]

I think you guys are in for some snow over the coming days. It will feel bitterly cold as well. Tuesday early hours could be a lamppost job.

[Norfolk_N_chance]

Snowing here in Buxton.....Derbyshire! Nice to see for a snow starved Norfolk resident. Looking forward to finding the highest peaks around this way as I'm normally used to 40m above sea level, not 300.

Up here for the weekend, will bring some back to East Anglia with me!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The best met office write up so far for this winter?

Regional Forecast for London & South East England

Headline:

Cold with outbreaks of light rain spreading erratically east.

Today:

Cold and mostly cloudy today, with outbreaks of light rain, perhaps sleet, already across western areas gradually spreading eastwards. Therefore Kent, Surrey and Sussex are likely to remain largely dry this morning. Highest temperature in London, generally colder elsewhere. Maximum temperature 5 °C.

Tonight:

Largely cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, perhaps sleet, gradually dying away. Scattered showers will follow, mainly across eastern areas, falling as rain, sleet or snow. Risk of icy patches. Minimum temperature -1 °C.

Sunday:

A brisk and bitterly cold wind will blow scattered showers in from across the North Sea, with the showers often wintry and perhaps locally heavy later. Some sunny intervals. Maximum temperature 4 °C.

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Monday and Tuesday will be cold, after sharp overnight frosts, with sunny spells and scattered wintry showers. Tuesday night chance of light snow. Wednesday frequent and sometimes heavy wintry showers.

 

Only goes out to Wednesday to if Friday is the last day of cold then we still got 2 more days to follow!

Updated: 02:13 on Sat 3 Feb 2018 GMT

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Oh boy..

[Laurence Hill]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Oh boy..

Is that termed as a streamer?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

3 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:

Is that termed as a streamer?

With the GFS being low RES it just illustrates risk of streamers we need the higher RES models in range first. 

Even then, expect suprises 

[howmuchsnow]

Top of Shard buried.

[stainesbloke]

22 minutes ago, Surrey said:

The best met office write up so far for this winter?

Regional Forecast for London & South East England

Headline:

Cold with outbreaks of light rain spreading erratically east.

Today:

Cold and mostly cloudy today, with outbreaks of light rain, perhaps sleet, already across western areas gradually spreading eastwards. Therefore Kent, Surrey and Sussex are likely to remain largely dry this morning. Highest temperature in London, generally colder elsewhere. Maximum temperature 5 °C.

Tonight:

Largely cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, perhaps sleet, gradually dying away. Scattered showers will follow, mainly across eastern areas, falling as rain, sleet or snow. Risk of icy patches. Minimum temperature -1 °C.

Sunday:

A brisk and bitterly cold wind will blow scattered showers in from across the North Sea, with the showers often wintry and perhaps locally heavy later. Some sunny intervals. Maximum temperature 4 °C.

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Monday and Tuesday will be cold, after sharp overnight frosts, with sunny spells and scattered wintry showers. Tuesday night chance of light snow. Wednesday frequent and sometimes heavy wintry showers.

 

Only goes out to Wednesday to if Friday is the last day of cold then we still got 2 more days to follow!

Updated: 02:13 on Sat 3 Feb 2018 GMT

Just watched latest BBC forecast and it looks like being a cold week, several sharp frosts and ‘some snow’. Not much detail but sounds good!

Edited February 3, 2018 by stainesbloke

[lassie23]

It's D day today, damp, dull, dank, dreary, drizzly errrrm dreadful, that will do

[seaside 60]

Really not impressed with the latest forecast.

4c today then forecast for monday was bitterly cold winds from the east and temps at 4-6c.

Sorry being old school, its getting warmer by monday ??? just with cold winds, all the precip was showing as rain.

I just think after years of nothing, people expectations are somewhat high.

Still hoping for a Feb/March 2013 when it just seemed to have snow on the ground for weeks.

[Donna3397]

Is our chance of snow slipping away??? 

[Gowon]

5 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

Is our chance of snow slipping away??? 

We've got this little band of ppn over our region on Monday which will hopefully be of snow. 

[snowblind]

7 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

Is our chance of snow slipping away??? 

Some of the models look quite promising, apparently, but the forecasts aren't too inspiring at the mo, just a bit too warm. But things chance quickly I've had uninspiring forecasts before and ended up with snow, so I would say wait and see what happens. Seems like Wednesday might be our best chance for any snow.

[snowblind]

23 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Really not impressed with the latest forecast.

4c today then forecast for monday was bitterly cold winds from the east and temps at 4-6c.

Sorry being old school, its getting warmer by monday ??? just with cold winds, all the precip was showing as rain.

I just think after years of nothing, people expectations are somewhat high.

Still hoping for a Feb/March 2013 when it just seemed to have snow on the ground for weeks.

I'm hoping that those temps are being slightly over estimated and will be modified down a couple of degrees nearer the time so this should increase out chances of snow. But I agree expectations from looking at the model thread and watching the forecasts don't really tally.

[SLEETY]

36 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Really not impressed with the latest forecast.

4c today then forecast for monday was bitterly cold winds from the east and temps at 4-6c.

Sorry being old school, its getting warmer by monday ??? just with cold winds, all the precip was showing as rain.

I just think after years of nothing, people expectations are somewhat high.

Still hoping for a Feb/March 2013 when it just seemed to have snow on the ground for weeks.

I don’t understand either,how can it be getting warmer by Monday,when the cold air hasn’t even arrived from way out east yet

are bbc forecasts really incompetent now,we are about to find out shortly 

 

Even the updated forecast this morning  on the website is showing temps highest in the SE  of 6c sun and mon,then talks about snow next week.SEEMS  nonsense

give up

Edited February 3, 2018 by SLEETY

[Donna3397]

I’ve just read in the mod thread that the temperature are slightly higher because of sea temperatures 

[Keefo]

Light rain.  Currently 2.4C

Hoping for a bit of the white stuff over next couple of days here.