SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

[snowray]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

Just for giggles but can you imagine this thread this time next week.. Lol 

I'd love that, I'd be snowed in. 

All that snow would come in handy to keep my beer nicely chilled!

[craigore]

Looks a v. Cold week

Bit worried that the trough distruption from N.w never really makes it to our corner in tact so the usual places i.e midlands will do best frim the set up if it happens this way.

Hopefully we nay get a few C.m from shower activaty if the N Sea fires up.

Dont want to sound down beat but thats the way i read the charts as they stand at this moment. 

Hopfully there will be further upgrades on ppn as wth the cold in place we need it...

C.

[PLANET THANET]

1 minute ago, craigore said:

Looks a v. Cold week

Bit worried that the trough distruption from N.w never really makes it to our corner in tact so the usual places i.e midlands will do best frim the set up if it happens this way.

Hopefully we nay get a few C.m from shower activaty if the N Sea fires up.

Dont want to sound down beat but thats the way i read the charts as they stand at this moment. 

Hopfully there will be further upgrades on ppn as wth the cold in place we need it...

C.

unfortunately, and I know they are not totally reliable, both the met and bbc 5 day outlooks put us down for rain  lets hope things change

[craigore]

P.s no lying snow here since 2013 im my neck of the woods. So got everything crossed here in hope that this is our turn.

Sick of seeing pics of peps north of the m4 wth the white stuff. 

Law of averages says after 5 years we deserve something.

Edited February 2, 2018 by craigore

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, craigore said:

P.s no lying snow here since 2023 im my neck of the woods. So got everything crossed here in hope that this is our turn.

Sick of seeing pics of peps north of the m4 wth the white stuff. 

Law of averages says after 5 years we deserve something.

Time to reset your TARDIS?

[craigore]

7 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

unfortunately, and I know they are not totally reliable, both the met and bbc 5 day outlooks put us down for rain  lets hope things change

I know what u mean.

We seeing all these fantastic charts on the mods , but meto & bbc not having it for our little corner.

Think it will defo be down to nowcasting.

Things will hopfully pop up out of the blue.

Surely wth -10-11 uppers over us we are not looking at rain . If thats happens then im done. 

Edited February 2, 2018 by craigore

[craigore]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Time to reset your TARDIS?

Sorry 2013  ... 

 

[CK1981]

The BBC and Met Office forecasts will change over the weekend. They will always be reluctant to forecast snow until reliable time frames.

With next week’s uppers and easterly air source, we will not be seeing rain.....especially not inland.

[interested & confused]

Garden thermometer says 5C but it's flipping freezing out in that wind from the North. Hat, scarf and gloves weather. 

The cat decided she didn't want to go out after all, once the door was opened lol Can't say I blame her

[Daniel*]

If we think it’s cold now god help us, exciting times. 

 

[CK1981]

Today’s Met Office outlook is even better than yesterday’s.

They are confident of a continuation of the cold theme with the risk of very cold air arriving mid February with easterly winds!

[throwoff]

I wouldn't be too disheartened by BBC and METO output. 

METO normally doesn't go for snow until 24 hours out for Kent and the Beeb always follows shortly after.

Let's see what the 12Z comes up with.

[seb]

14 minutes ago, throwoff said:

I wouldn't be too disheartened by BBC and METO output. 

METO normally doesn't go for snow until 24 hours out for Kent and the Beeb always follows shortly after.

Let's see what the 12Z comes up with.

Indeed. The MetO hourly forecast and the BBC hourly forecast (now using Meteogroup) don't use high res models for a few days out and streamers hardly ever show up on non-high res models.

Edited February 2, 2018 by seb

[essex coast matt]

BBC Essex radio was very upbeat this morning re wintry weather next week all from BBC weather center.she was saying good chance of some good coverings of snow

[lassie23]

 I don't like snow

[PLANET THANET]

32 minutes ago, throwoff said:

I wouldn't be too disheartened by BBC and METO output. 

METO normally doesn't go for snow until 24 hours out for Kent and the Beeb always follows shortly after.

Let's see what the 12Z comes up with.

thanks for everybody's re-assurance and I suppose its a case of waiting and hopefully "cometh the hour, cometh the snow"  

[Azores Hi]

Hello all!

 Thought I'd pop in, don't post much these days but I'm always watching!

Here in the far SE it looks great for flurries (love that word) of snow streaming in off the North Sea, models are consistently showing a feed of showers clipping the region and as these are shown on the precip charts that gives me great encouragement as I've often seen these set ups produce without much precipitation being modelled.

 If I'm being fussy I'd like a bit more strength in the wind to decrease modification time over the sea and get those showers packing inland and queuing up offshore. As it stands though I think Sunday morning through to Monday evening should see a period of intermittent shower activity for Kent, SE Essex and East Sussex (depending on strength of wind) which could lead to some significant local accumulations if they prove persistent and frequent enough, that detail is still a little way off, would be nice to see a trough in the flow, these sometimes only appear first on the radar and it will soon be time to watch that!

 For those further N and W, fingers crossed the front has enough oomph to get to you,  but if not, try not to loose heart, it just means the cold has penetrated further west, which is a good thing!

 

 

[Daniel*]

Marginality won’t be a problem for once, it’s most unfavoured in our region! Seems like we have been on a stuck record for five years. I’d be genuinely very surprised if not everyone of us at least has a covering out this. Our more western members more likely to pick up from frontal lot while those more east and south will do best out of convective snow showers. 

Edited February 2, 2018 by Daniel*

[lawrenk]

47 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Today’s Met Office outlook is even better than yesterday’s.

They are confident of a continuation of the cold theme with the risk of very cold air arriving mid February with easterly winds!

Yes, that is really intriguing and the first mention of “very cold” that I can remember.

Maybe the coming week is a mere appetiser!

[CK1981]

Just now, lawrenk said:

Yes, that is really intriguing and the first mention of “very cold” that I can remember.

Maybe the coming week is a mere appetiser!

I can’t remember them using ‘very cold’ either, so that’s quite a statement.

If next week is the appetiser, I can’t wait for the main course.

With the signals from the strat, we could be in for an epic spell after next week.

[Daniel*]

Would you Adam and Eve it? 

 

[CK1981]

10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Marginality won’t be a problem for once, it’s most unfavoured in our region! Seems like we have been on a stuck record for five years. I’d be genuinely very surprised if not everyone of us at least has a covering out this. Our more western members more likely to pick up from frontal lot while those more east and south will do best out of convective snow showers. 

These setups always make me nervous here in east Berkshire. I might be in the middle of the 2 zones, which would be typical.

[Laurence Hill]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Look at the updated JMA 72-84  ^^^

Anyone know what it showed?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Euro4 does show the front in Saturday making it into the region albeit very patchy and light not sure if it will fall as snow.. 

[Methuselah]

Just caught the Beeb's lunchtime Special: snow showers on Monday for parts of the London Area @7C!!