SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, CK1981 said:

This is very encouraging!

One thing I will say about Exeter, for them to stick to the easterly outlook must show a pretty strong signal in Glosea. 

Now we have this from the contingency planners, I will certainly keep the faith.

Its good news but i think i'm just programmed for disappointments now- surely i'm not the only one...

Anyway, all we can do is hope Exeter are right.

[snowray]

We really do need to get 18z this evening back on board or at least moving towards the euros, it was a good run last night so I have high hopes.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, snowray said:

We really do need to get 18z this evening back on board or at least moving towards the euros, it was a good run last night so I have high hopes.

Dont want it moving to ECM , thats was left trouser leg filler ..

UKMO on the other hand looks good to me, and potentially very good at 168-

[CK1981]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Dont want it moving to ECM , thats was left trouser leg filler ..

UKMO on the other hand looks good to me, and potentially very good at 168-

Usually the UKMO handles this sort of scenario better, so maybe that’s the trend we need to follow.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, CK1981 said:

Usually the UKMO handles this sort of scenario better, so maybe that’s the trend we need to follow.

Gawd i hopeso.

[snowray]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Dont want it moving to ECM , thats was left trouser leg filler ..

UKMO on the other hand looks good to me, and potentially very good at 168-

Yes UKMO looks best out of todays model runs, not perfect though, anyway maybe 18z will be a stonker, fingers crossed.

Edited January 29, 2018 by snowray

[lassie23]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Dont want it moving to ECM , thats was left trouser leg filler ..

UKMO on the other hand looks good to me, and potentially very good at 168-

left trouser leg filler, is that a weather term

[snowray]

3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

left trouser leg filler, is that a weather term

What does that mean, is it better? So whats the difference with a right trouser leg filler then?

[Daniel*]

8 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Usually the UKMO handles this sort of scenario better, so maybe that’s the trend we need to follow.

I tend to be fairly sceptical if UKMO isn’t interested however there have been a number of times we have been teased by D5/D6 charts, still good to see plus ECM is more on board than GFS.

Who’s seen T+168 it shows a nice E’ly precip in the region falling presumably as snow

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

What does that mean, is it better? So whats the difference with a right trouser leg filler then?

It means you didnt make it to the loo in time..

[CK1981]

10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I tend to be fairly sceptical if UKMO isn’t interested however there have been a number of times we have been teased by D5/D6 charts, still good to see plus ECM is more on board than GFS.

Who’s seen T+168 it shows a nice E’ly precip in the region falling presumably as snow

That’s a great looking chart and ties in nicely with the outlook from Exeter - thanks for sharing it.

Could we be about to see a gfs flip on the 18z.

Let’s all do a snow dance ?

Also, look at the low pressure over Spain and France. That will stop the Azores high ridging in and may support a Scandi ridge. I’m feel much more positive now!

Edited January 29, 2018 by CK1981

[snowray]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It means you didnt make it to the loo in time..

Oh I see, not weather related then, I was thinking of the LTLF, like the GLAMM or something like that, you know.

Anyway, why are them Canadians so greedy and hogging all the cold, lets have some! 

This was just posted on the MAD thread.

[CK1981]

6 minutes ago, snowray said:

Oh I see, not weather related then, I was thinking of the LTLF, like the GLAMM or something like that, you know.

Anyway, why are them Canadians so greedy and hogging all the cold, lets have some! 

This was just posted on the MAD thread.

That’s brutal cold! I don’t think I’ve ever seen such widespread frigid air. 

You’re certainly looking at -40 surface temperatures there ❄️❄️

[lassie23]

9 minutes ago, snowray said:

Oh I see, not weather related then, I was thinking of the LTLF, like the GLAMM or something like that, you know.

Anyway, why are them Canadians so greedy and hogging all the cold, lets have some! 

This was just posted on the MAD thread.

that can stay in canada lol, a bit too cold

[snowray]

Just now, CK1981 said:

That’s brutal cold! I don’t think I’ve ever seen such widespread frigid air. 

You’re certainly looking at -40 surface temperatures there ❄️❄️

We really could have done with a December or early January SSW. That cold is the hindrance to us getting PV to slow down a bit so that a block can set up shop in a favourable location.

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

We really could have done with a December or early January SSW. That cold is the hindrance to us getting PV to slow down a bit so that a block can set up shop in a favourable location.

That’s true, but other factors such as the MJO making its way through high amplitude phases should support blocking to our north east.....if it gets there of course.

[yamkin]

Gritters will be deployed in the Croydon Borough in a few hours time to treat A & B Routes

[Darkcloud]

1 hour ago, CK1981 said:

This is very encouraging!

One thing I will say about Exeter, for them to stick to the easterly outlook must show a pretty strong signal in Glosea. 

Now we have this from the contingency planners, I will certainly keep the faith.

I'm fast losing faith, even if we do by some miracle get the easterly it'll probably be a dry one knowing our luck!

[CK1981]

Just now, Darkcloud said:

I'm fast losing faith, even if we do by some miracle get the easterly it'll probably be a dry one knowing our luck!

Yes, I think it would be a dry one with pressure too high. Snow showers probably reserved for the east coast. Need to get some troughs into the flow if the easterly comes off.

[CK1981]

Things seem to be taking a turn for the worst this evening, with a rather sobering tweet from Ian suggesting a chilly outlook, but nothing bothersome. I think we will be very lucky to get an easterly. The BBC are favouring a mid Atlantic ridge over a Scandi ridge ?

Now where’s that towel.....

[Darkcloud]

31 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Things seem to be taking a turn for the worst this evening, with a rather sobering tweet from Ian suggesting a chilly outlook, but nothing bothersome. I think we will be very lucky to get an easterly. The BBC are favouring a mid Atlantic ridge over a Scandi ridge ?

Now where’s that towel.....

Don't worry...I've already thrown it in! 

Edited January 29, 2018 by Darkcloud

[CK1981]

3 minutes ago, Darkcloud said:

Don't worry...I've already thrown it in! 

I was trying to be positive, but there’s no point sugar coating things, it’s looking crap now.

If the experts are moving away from proper cold, I expect the Met Office outlook will also be watered down tomorrow.

We get sucked in every time, but never learn.

[Darkcloud]

22 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I was trying to be positive, but there’s no point sugar coating things, it’s looking crap now.

If the experts are moving away from proper cold, I expect the Met Office outlook will also be watered down tomorrow.

We get sucked in every time, but never learn.

Agreed! Its damn addictive though! Some part of me is still hoping something will appear suddenly. Meto long range gives me a spark of hope but this whole winter has been a tease...mouthwatering synoptics that fail to verify! 

Out of interest, was it an easterly that delivered to us in 2009/10?

[CK1981]

10 minutes ago, Darkcloud said:

Agreed! Its damn addictive though! Some part of me is still hoping something will appear suddenly. Meto long range gives me a spark of hope but this whole winter has been a tease...mouthwatering synoptics that fail to verify! 

Out of interest, was it an easterly that delivered to us in 2009/10?

I think that was the result of a Greenland high, so the flow would have been North, North East on average.

[Donna3397]

Temperature tumbled away this evening beautiful night tho.