SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, Kent Blizzard said:

We are on the verge of the long awaited Easter'ly that tbf had been touted around as arriving in Feb by some Senior Forecasters.....The question is, will it make it? Will it be the one chance before we head into Spring?

Sit back and enjoy the emotional rollercoaster this week whilst we make the mistake of riding on the back of every model output!

GFS 06z says no

 it seems we have been on the verge, more like a cliff drop for years, out of all the regions we would do best. There is a greater probability it would be known for its marked cold rather than snow. 

Edited January 29, 2018 by Daniel*

[stainesbloke]

A nice start here but rapidly clouding over now and that bloody howling wind is back, again. Some nice, calm high pressure, please!!

[lassie23]

steady drizzle here awwwwww drizzle one of the wonders of the world

Edited January 29, 2018 by lassie23

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

A nice start here but rapidly clouding over now and that bloody howling wind is back, again. Some nice, calm high pressure, please!!

Perhaps your house is a bit drafty I’ve been hearing nothing only from that quite potent unnamed storm which you reported was not strong in your neck of the woods. 

[Daniel*]

It’s come over foreboding checked the radar and a squall line is moving southwards shortlasting.

[Blessed Weather]

Sun's just appeared here in Suffolk - on it's way down to you @Daniel*.

Sharpish drop in temp too as the front went through, falling from 11.9C around midday to 9.8C by 15.00.

 

[Daniel*]

6 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Sun's just appeared here in Suffolk - on it's way down to you @Daniel*.

Sharpish drop in temp too as the front went through, falling from 11.9C around midday to 9.8C by 15.00.

 

Oh I assume that was associated with a cold front then! Great won’t be far away then.  

[stainesbloke]

50 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Perhaps your house is a bit drafty I’ve been hearing nothing only from that quite potent unnamed storm which you reported was not strong in your neck of the woods. 

I was at the allotment earlier, it’s a big site so therefore quite open to the wind. Not blowing at gale force but strong and annoying, nonetheless and it’s ripping the roofing felt from my shed. 

That unnamed storm didn’t cause any damage here, but the one a few weeks earlier did. 

[Nick F]

Impressive threatening looking line of rain moving through with a cold front here atm

 

Edited January 29, 2018 by Nick F

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

I was at the allotment earlier, it’s a big site so therefore quite open to the wind. Not blowing at gale force but strong and annoying, nonetheless and it’s ripping the roofing felt from my shed. 

That unnamed storm didn’t cause any damage here, but the one a few weeks earlier did. 

That’s strange you aren’t even far away from, I’m more east though perhaps as it pulled away into the North Sea that’s where the damage came from - my fence was really damaged 30% of it was levelled flat. I was pretty shocked it’s seen some gales over the years, then again it’s seen better days.  

[Swave Snow]

Looked pretty dark here in North West London about an hour ago, but not much rain fell

[Dami]

That 'line' hit me a while back, wind got up, it rained. Looked on radar as you do, thought squall line but no on else said anything so kept quiet.

\0/

[CK1981]

For anyone wanting an easterly, don’t look at the latest gfs run, it’s dire. Is this already going pear shaped I wonder!

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

For anyone wanting an easterly, don’t look at the latest gfs run, it’s dire. Is this already going pear shaped I wonder!

Don’t quite know why you’re saying it’s going pear shaped? Never have we had cross model agreement on this. UKMO keeps the dream alive imo some share different opinions. 

[KDME]

5 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

For anyone wanting an easterly, don’t look at the latest gfs run, it’s dire. Is this already going pear shaped I wonder!

This on/off/on/off, always outside reliable range easterly has been going on for 2 weeks already.  It is computer weather I tell ya ... 

[CK1981]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Don’t quite know why you’re saying it’s going pear shaped? Never have we had cross model agreement on this. UKMO keeps the dream alive imo some share different opinions. 

I was just commenting on the gfs run! You do like to nit pick, don’t you ?

Also, read the last bit again. I didn’t say ‘it is going pear shaped’.

No disrespect, but you seem very quick to judge people, which I find rather odd.

Edited January 29, 2018 by CK1981

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, Weather_Novice said:

This on/off/on/off, always outside reliable range easterly has been going on for 2 weeks already.  It is computer weather I tell ya ... 

But you cannot sugar coat that gfs run, or disregard it either. Look what happened with the last easterly fiasco. The Euros said yes, but the gfs stuck to its guns and we all know what happened in the end. The gfs has been the most consistent this winter, so we cannot bin it.

[Daniel*]

Just now, CK1981 said:

I was just commenting on the gfs run! You do like to nit pick, don’t you ?

Occasionally. I had some agro in that mod thread apologies I just read what folk post it is not my responsibility to make something clear I was just a little bemused with ‘is this going pear shaped’. When it’s never appeared likely time to take a chill pill Daniel. 

[CK1981]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Occasionally. I had some agro in that mod thread apologies I just read what folk post it is not my responsibility to make something clear I was just a little bemused with ‘is this going pear shaped’. When it’s never appeared likely time to take a chill pill Daniel. 

It’s cool. I was just commenting on the gfs run though and I’m definitely not throwing in the towel yet. Let’s hope we get cross model agreement (for the better) soon.

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

No disrespect, but you seem very quick to judge people, which I find rather odd.

Quick to judge people? I was doing no such thing I thought it was an odd sounding statement from you perhaps I took it differently. Can I not share my opinion? I’m not afraid to voice my opinion of course not everyone likes that.. I don’t do it to cause drama and well being respectful despite that is important. 

[CK1981]

18 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Quick to judge people? I was doing no such thing I thought it was an odd sounding statement from you perhaps I took it differently. Can I not share my opinion? I’m not afraid to voice my opinion of course not everyone likes that.. I don’t do it to cause drama and well being respectful despite that is important. 

Just ignore my posts and we’ll all be happy. I thought the regionals had less drama, so if you’re going to jump on everything I say and cause agro, just ignore my posts. Thank you!

This isn’t the first time you’ve totally misread one of my posts and jumped in feet first either!

Edited January 29, 2018 by CK1981

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Just ignore my posts and we’ll all be happy. I thought the regionals had less drama, so if you’re going to jump on everything I say and cause agro, just ignore my posts. Thank you!

This isn’t the first time you’ve totally misread one of my posts and jumped in feet first either!

You’re making it into something it’s not there is no drama here, I have no issue with you just the post itself even that I’m being pedantic. I’m harmless.  

I apologise for causing any problems communication through forum isn’t best way to understand someone I merely wanted some clarify and I got that - thank you. I was never serious about it I have much worse things to worry about! 

[CK1981]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

You’re making it into something it’s not there is no drama here, I have no issue with you just the post itself even that I’m being pedantic. I’m harmless.  

I apologise for causing any problems communication through forum isn’t best way to understand someone I merely wanted some clarify and I got that - thank you. I was never serious about it I have much worse things to worry about! 

Ok, we can just forget about the misunderstanding. I was merely thinking aloud when I said ‘is this going pear shaped I wonder’. I’m the biggest coldie ever, so I’m willing an easterly to our shores.

I don’t want any agro either and I’m  commenting less in the other threads because some members seem to get pleasure out of pecking at people, and I don’t think any of us want that here.

[Dami]

oh my.

in other news, i must be ill, it doesn't feel that cold how side.

clear and a strong breeze.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Don't turn this place into the model thread 

The problem I see every time is people taking each run as gospel to what will happen to only then be let down or sudden joy when it goes either way 6 hours later. 

Plus, there are a few newbies that stir the pot up when they don't really understand how the mechanisms behind our weather work. 

Trend is your friend, and from the middle of last week a new trend was picked up on that was highlighted by some longer range models at the start of January and that is for a colder February. 

Now we have to take a step back from that and with a sprinkle of salt because when longer range models pick up on these kind of signals it doesn't always mean the extreme, a colder February could  mean that its only slightly below or could mean below average or we'll below average. Its not until you get within the reliable time that humans begin to properly analyse the data available and give a educated opinion what will happen next. Even then 12 hours before something is due to take place it goes bandy... That's the beauty of weather. 

Next, if something happens somewhere else in the atmosphere that affects our weather, these tend to have a big time delay or small depending on the "event" that can massively alter the weather or setup up shown above our tiny island. 

We also have probably one of the biggest weather makers in the world to our left that being the Atlantic ocean. Friend or foe its a gigantic area that has many varying factors and meteorological  happenings every day these sometimes do or don't affect our weather most of the time it does.. 

Don't get me started on the jet stream... 

The great thing about our tiny island is we can almost always be on the chance for weather.. Okay unless a great big fat high it sat over us or a slack easterly... Lol 90% of the time we can hunt the next big thing.. Be it storms, heat, snow, (ha!) or something that tickles your fancy, it's there... 

If February isn't cold we move onto spring and the hunt for early warmth and April showers is on or the hunt for sunny days High pressure to get the spring growth a kick start. 

Stay calm, we are all in same boat and we don't want to rock the boat lol! 

Peace and love 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2018 by Surrey