SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

[stainesbloke]

3 hours ago, Surrey said:

Something to keep an eye on would be the potential for quite an active front to sweep through Wednesday morning associated with the low pressure forcast to cross Scotland.. 

When ever you see a sharp cut off in the models of wind speeds it usually suggests some kind of feature maybe a squall line etc with a bit of oomph to it. Though GFS sucks at the smaller detail and will paint a different picture to high RES 

Would expect some very squally conditions perhaps warnings for areas further north over the next 48 hours.. 

AREPGE 

 

Looks quite lively, may see some lightning and hail?

A much more pleasant day here, still quite cloudy though the sun is peaking through from time to time and feeling mild at 8C.

[moogyboobles]

What a funny couple of days, from driving in what was practically a blizzard on the A130 yesterday, to popping out to the shops today and it almost feeling like spring is round the corner. 

[Daniel*]

Onwards to the next cold spell I’d hardly call the one just gone one. My jaw somewhat dropped looking at GFS ensembles for February, so many go very cold. Much milder today, nice and bright too.   

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, CK1981 said:

It’s been snowing heavily here in Tallinn this morning. Approximately 2 inches has fallen and it’s coming down again now. Let’s hope it doesn’t cause issues for my flight to London this afternoon!

Wow still snow about, thought things had warmed up.

[interested & confused]

Got up to 12C just after lunch, but starting to cloud over and cool down again, now though. It was so good to see a bit of sunshine this morning after all the grey days lately  

Roll on Spring

[lassie23]

not many posts in here today, nobody seems to be fascinated by cloudy mild nothingness any more

[Dougal]

Grey.

[alexisj9]

Was nice and sunny here till this evening, clouding over now.

[bluebell]

18 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Was nice and sunny here till this evening, clouding over now.

Was here too, think the south east corner did well, it was a blessed relief from the weekend weather which was grey and rainy enough to trigger a right old fit of the glums! 

Lucky to not work Monday so had a lovely but soggy underfoot walk round Rye and Iden. I won’t be welcoming tomorrow’s rain with open arms hey ho. 

[alexisj9]

23 minutes ago, bluebell said:

Was here too, think the south east corner did well, it was a blessed relief from the weekend weather which was grey and rainy enough to trigger a right old fit of the glums! 

Lucky to not work Monday so had a lovely but soggy underfoot walk round Rye and Iden. I won’t be welcoming tomorrow’s rain with open arms hey ho. 

On the plus side our River is now getting back to normal.

[seb]

Looks like another 8-9 hours of gusts in excess of 60mph on Wednesday along with lots of rain. This time it’s during the day, starting around morning rush hour continuing until just before the evening rush hour.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

16 minutes ago, seb said:

Looks like another 8-9 hours of gusts in excess of 60mph on Wednesday along with lots of rain. This time it’s during the day, starting around morning rush hour continuing until just before the evening rush hour.

Not sure, high RES is still toying with the idea of making the wind field larger.. 

GFS still has more of a tighter wind field. 

Quite a squeeze over Scotland some damaging wind gusts up there in excess of 90mph

 

[seb]

15 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Not sure, high RES is still toying with the idea of making the wind field larger.. 

GFS still has more of a tighter wind field. 

Quite a squeeze over Scotland some damaging wind gusts up there in excess of 90mph

 

I don’t know. I’m ignoring a lot of models but AROME and the DWD one yet again show >65mph for several hours. Also, Kachelman Wetter and AccuWeather state locally damaging gusts between 6am and 3pm >65mph. Both were spot on last week.

MetO going for 50mph max.

[snowray]

Well thats out lot then down here, no winter again south of the Thames,  no indication of a late winter in Feb either, might get a few wintry outbursts in the spring like we normally do of course but I am now officially in Spring watch mode 100%. Good luck to the members who are still expecting something of Winter.

Edited January 22, 2018 by snowray

[NO LONGER POSTING]

36 minutes ago, snowray said:

Well thats out lot then down here, no winter again south of the Thames,  no indication of a late winter in Feb either, might get a few wintry outbursts in the spring like we normally do of course but I am now officially in Spring watch mode 100%. Good luck to the members who are still expecting something of Winter.

Easy, we know Feb is our snowiest month, but by the end of Feb it's time to look for the early March warmth or as previous years the late arriving useless easterly 

[CK1981]

5 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Wow still snow about, thought things had warmed up.

I was in Estonia. It’s certainly not warm there!

[snowrye]

Wow,this thread is buzzing,hardly a surprise really,nothing to report,and according to the mad thread,nothing at all for 10 days plus,at least at the end there's an easterly,yer right,its a nice garden path that,personally,I think that's it,only jan I know,but it's just not happened,fingers crossed im wrong,I just hope summer delivers some nice plumes

[Daniel*]

 

[seb]

32 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

 

Fully agree with this assessment. Majority of models showing this. There better be MetO warnings by the end of the morning to avoid a repeat of last week. They did e-mail me about last week and all but admitted that they shouldn't have removed the warning from the SE. 

Tomorrow's storm is going to hit the region in time for morning rush hour and will go on until mid afternoon with gusts around 60mph across the majority of the region. Not something to be sniffed at during daytime.

Edited January 23, 2018 by seb

[Daniel*]

19 minutes ago, seb said:

Fully agree with this assessment. Majority of models showing this. There better be MetO warnings by the end of the morning to avoid a repeat of last week. They did e-mail me about last week and all but admitted that they shouldn't have removed the warning from the SE. 

Tomorrow's storm is going to hit the region in time for morning rush hour and will go on until mid afternoon with gusts around 60mph across the majority of the region. Not something to be sniffed at during daytime.

Yes that’s the distinction between this and the last unnamed storm despite being less potent although not significantly so. What with a beefy squall line being modelled too - could be messy.

[seb]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Yes that’s the distinction between this and the last unnamed storm despite being less potent although not significantly so. What with a beefy squall line being modelled too - could be messy.

 Very messy indeed. To put it into perspective - last week’s top gusts in high population areas in Germany were 62mph and 8 people were killed, including two firefighters.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Hmmm no warnings yet, we also need to take into account that there could be a convective nature to what ever blows through which could enhance gusts 

60mph for the 5th time this season if it does get there, would be approaching 2014 in terms of wind.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Text book squall 

[stainesbloke]

52 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Text book squall 

Yes, the winds associated with that will be nasty. Might see a storm or two.

[stainesbloke]

Dreary day here, grey, breezy and not feeling especially mild, considering it is 11C. Chanced going to my allotment, despite the forecast. Glad I did, as it hasn’t rained at all and I’ve got quite a lot done.