SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

[NO LONGER POSTING]

And the text reads 

Tonight:

Thickening cloud bringing a spell of heavy rain through the evening. Turning more showery into the early hours with winds becoming very strong. Coastal gales or severe gales developing later. Minimum temperature 3 °C.

I personally think they are waiting on seeing what the storm does on approach, if we cast our minds back 2 weeks ago we got issued a wind warning 3 hours before it was due to take affect 

[alexisj9]

Last night was windy enough with the highest gust at 50, still gusting at between 30, 45 now.

[seb]

It's the update text that makes the odd choice obvious - "This is an update to the warning, shrinking the yellow area and also the validity period.Gusts of 50-60 mph are likely quite widely. There is some uncertainty over the peak gusts, but there is a small chance of winds reaching 70 mph in places - most likely across coastal north Wales and northwest England during the middle part of the night and then across parts of Lincolnshire and East Anglia early on Thursday morning."

Very odd considering AROME, ARPERGE, ICON and the Germans are showing exactly those speeds across most of England, higher along Channel coasts and even higher in EA early morning.

Edited January 17, 2018 by seb

[yamkin]

Morning all, Gritters were out late last night in the Croydon Borough as a precaution which was a sensible idea. Latest GFS model shows the SE will bear the brunt of the oncoming storm around 07:00 hrs tomorrow morning. Will there be more twists and turns 

[snowray]

What a lovely day, well done BBC, who needs the GFS etc. Currently 6c, and wall to wall sunshine, Spring has sprung in sunny Erith!

[tomp456]

This GIF of Woy sums up today/tonight's storm

[snowray]

Wow, cold wind, just been out and there's quite a wind chill in spite of the sunshine.

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, Surrey said:

And the text reads 

Tonight:

Thickening cloud bringing a spell of heavy rain through the evening. Turning more showery into the early hours with winds becoming very strong. Coastal gales or severe gales developing later. Minimum temperature 3 °C.

I personally think they are waiting on seeing what the storm does on approach, if we cast our minds back 2 weeks ago we got issued a wind warning 3 hours before it was due to take affect 

Must be hard to forecast these storms as they develop so quickly. Doesn’t look too severe at the moment, though Norfolk is at risk of storm force gusts. The rest of our region could see gusts up to 50-60 mph. If the low bombs quicker though, it’ll be more severe. The storm continues to deepen as it leaves the UK, giving the Netherlands and parts of Germany a battering tomorrow. 

[snowray]

Latest temps around London for 12:00 from the Met site has us up to 7c generally but Heathrow is showing as -5c, yes, minus!! 

 

Edit, now up to 8c at 13:00 down on the South Coast, places like Horsham and Hertsmonceux.

Edited January 17, 2018 by snowray

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Latest surface analysis has the low already deeper than the GFS 06z is showing... Think the met Office in Exeter are probably watching this develop by the hour, granted they are not for the same time.. Only 1 hour out.. 

Now racy kicks in its up to what the storm and jet want to do.. 

[tomp456]

So according to the BBC forecast the south coast is going to get a bit of rain for a bit, then a bit of wind for a bit. 

Seems pretty standard weather for the winter here ! 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, tomp456 said:

So according to the BBC forecast the south coast is going to get a bit of rain for a bit, then a bit of wind for a bit. 

Seems pretty standard weather for the winter here ! 

Oh I don't know, Tom - a couple of cans of Baked Bean & Brussels Sprout Soup ought to stir things up a bit?

[LightningLover]

we had a very slight covering of sleet/hail on the bins this morning. amazing.

[tomp456]

19 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh I don't know, Tom - a couple of cans of Baked Bean & Brussels Sprout Soup ought to stir things up a bit?

Thanks for the suggestion Edward.

Maybe the Met Office will upgrade their warnings??? 

[Brassmonkeylily]

I cannot believe the Met Office have taken off the wind warning  for tonight's low pressure system ,,, we are still expected to get severe Gales with 50 mph gusts .. They were determined not to give it a name as well.... not sure of their reasons

[Delka]

We're expecting a rough night especially in the early hours with the winds forecast here.. We could be let off with gusts peaking 50-55mph or if some other models are correct we could be facing more serious gusts of close to 75-80mph here. I guess we'll have to wait and see, nobody seems to have any clue on what exactly the storm will do as it strengthens!

[Delka]

I fancy the GFS's windspeed and gusts alot more then ICON which brings 75mph gusts over my area for rush hour!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Now at 992mb 

GFS is way of mark now not having it down to 992mb till its over Ireland at 9pm

[Delka]

28 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Now at 992mb 

GFS is way of mark now not having it down to 992mb till its over Ireland at 9pm

So GFS has it weaker?

[Spikey M]

I went out in the garden and took my cover off the bike this morning. I then put it back on, went through the house and got in the car. No thanks!

it felt raw this morning, although apparently it was 3c!

[lawrenk]

9 hours ago, DonnaThw said:

Beautiful morning, the ground is dry as a bone here, can’t remember the last time I saw the path dry in the morning. It’s nice but not even one snow shower  I agree that it quite windy here already so I’m not sure what that will bring tonight/tomorrow. What a awful winter AGAIN .

Yes, when I read “more runs needed” in the MOD thread 5 years ago(last time I had lying snow) I didn’t think they meant thousands more.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, lawrenk said:

Yes, when I read “more runs needed” in the MOD thread 5 years ago(last time I had lying snow) I didn’t think they meant thousands more.

Think 'infinity' and you'll never go wrong!

[Dbarb]

Pressure looks to be below 990 now at 988, also surprised this chat is not busy as its going to be the windiest night this season. 

[Delka]

2 minutes ago, Dbarb said:

Pressure looks to be below 990 now at 988, also surprised this chat is not busy as its going to be the windiest night this season. 

I think the uncertainty is a big factor of whether people are interested or not, plus I think we've already had windier then what the max overnight could be. It could be disruptive but nothing out of the ordinary is forecast

[tinybill]

all i say is i hope the highways have  got it right reg our bridge and they not shuting it!!