SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

[SLEETY]

Why are some people so worried about this storm

And concerned.

i thought this is a weather enthusiast forum ,so people would be looking forward to see extreme events not worry about them.

Its not although we wouldn’t be prepared what with internet and social media everywhere now.

[lassie23]

27 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Why are some people so worried about this storm

And concerned.

i thought this is a weather enthusiast forum ,so people would be looking forward to see extreme events not worry about them.

Its not although we wouldn’t be prepared what with internet and social media everywhere now.

it might blow hats of heads

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Morning gang, 

Think I've seen the sun about 2 times I'm the last 10 days lol! 

Its all gone t*** up as usual 

[CK1981]

17 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Morning gang, 

Think I've seen the sun about 2 times I'm the last 10 days lol! 

Its all gone t*** up as usual 

This was my fear the other day, the pattern flattens and the westerlies return. I think we’re just doomed down here. Also, the strat signals are poor now, so we’ll be heading deeper into February and still chasing.....like most years. I’m tempted to throw the towel in now  

[NO LONGER POSTING]

21 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

This was my fear the other day, the pattern flattens and the westerlies return. I think we’re just doomed down here. Also, the strat signals are poor now, so we’ll be heading deeper into February and still chasing.....like most years. I’m tempted to throw the towel in now  

Each year me and mum have a bet on Winter. We don't do it for money or anything just a light punt. I went for warmer wetter and more risk of severe storms. Mum went for very cold with snow etc. So far neither of us are right. 

But I have remembered snow events in Feb to be really good.. The problem with where we are is the fact that after December 21st our approach ever so slightly to the sun begins again. Even now I said to mum last night it was lighter for that little bit longer and this morning I saw what light there is around 7:30am this morning. 

So on the 22nd of December we gained 3 seconds of day! YAY!!! Total day length 7:49:47 hours

But even now 14th Jan We gain 2:17 minuets of day. The day length is now 8:18:56 hours. From the 21st December we have gained nearly half an hour of daylight.. 

Statistically Feb is the snowiest month I think and January is the coldest month sometimes December... 

But by Mid February 15th say the Day is now 10 hours, almost 2 hours longer than in mid Jan!!.. If its clear the sun begins to gain it's strength again well in theory from the 21st December it gets ever so slightly stronger. Which means it gets harder and harder for us to get snow to stick around. You can have freezing days or even 1-2 degrees above freezing in Feb and it will still be drip drip if there is nothing to block the sun, when I was working for commercial garden company they said by mid March if you are out on a clear day for the whole day you can still "catch the sun" and recommended  taking sun cream LOL! But apparently  the risk of getting sunburn runs from March-October!

I was working with tree surgeons on one of the sunny days we had this week think it was Tuesday or Wednesday, I was in a t-shirt so was one of the other guys and we stood in the sun and he goes "that sun actually feels slightly warm" 

So even if we do get the conditions later on in "Winter" they need to be bloody good! I prefer Snow in December and Jan then start chasing the warmer weather by End of Feb. 

You can get nice weather winter or spring in Feb it is one of them Strange months like October or Sometimes November when it's not quite sure 15c or 5c kind of month.

Edited January 14, 2018 by Surrey

[CK1981]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Each year me and mum have a bet on Winter. We don't do it for money or anything just a light punt. I went for warmer wetter and more risk of severe storms. Mum went for very cold with snow etc. So far neither of us are right. 

But I have remembered snow events in Feb to be really good.. The problem with where we are is the fact that after December 21st our approach ever so slightly to the sun begins again. Even now I said to mum last night it was lighter for that little bit longer and this morning I saw what light there is around 7:30am this morning. 

So on the 22nd of December we gained 3 seconds of day! YAY!!! Total day length 7:49:47 hours

But even now 14th Jan We gain 2:17 minuets of day. The day length is now 8:18:56 hours. From the 21st December we have gained nearly half an hour of daylight.. 

Statistically Feb is the snowiest month I think and January is the coldest month sometimes December... 

But by Mid February 15th say the Day is now 10 hours, almost 2 hours longer than in mid Jan!!.. If its clear the sun begins to gain it's strength again well in theory from the 21st December it gets ever so slightly stronger. Which means it gets harder and harder for us to get snow to stick around. You can have freezing days or even 1-2 degrees above freezing in Feb and it will still be drip drip if there is nothing to block the sun, when I was working for commercial garden company they said by mid March if you are out on a clear day for the whole day you can still "catch the sun" and recommended  taking sun cream LOL! But apparently  the risk of getting sunburn runs from March-October!

I was working with tree surgeons on one of the sunny days we had this week think it was Tuesday or Wednesday, I was in a t-shirt so was one of the other guys and we stood in the sun and he goes "that sun actually feels slightly warm" 

 

That’s the biggest issue with snow events in February, especially later in the month. As the sun gets progressively stronger, we really need deep cold from the east to make it meaningful, otherwise (as you quite rightly say), the drip, drip, drip soon begins. Let’s see what unfolds over the next few days, but I believe we’ve taken a huge step back this morning! 

[tinybill]

morning  all if this  is  going  to happen it should be  fun!

[stainesbloke]

11 hours ago, CK1981 said:

A 50 mile shift south will run it through the channel and give us all a spell of snow. History tells us these runners usually adjust south, so you never know.

Wouldn’t be surprised if a shift south occurs. A shift north is possible too, these situations are very difficult to forecast. I’m not overly excited about the snow anyway, it’ll likely be nasty, slushy crap. Am more concerned about the possible winds, could be damaging. It’ll certainly be more ‘exciting’ than this grey nothingness, that’s for sure.

Edited January 14, 2018 by stainesbloke

[tinybill]

2 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Wouldn’t be surprised if a shift south occurs. A shift north is possible too, these situations are very difficult to forecast. I’m not very excited anyway, as it might snow but it’ll be nasty, slushy crap. Am more concerned about the possible winds, could be damaging. It’ll certain be more exciting than this grey nothingness.

mod thread talking  about possible 80 mph  in our neck of the woods should make things interesting!

[stainesbloke]

6 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Why are some people so worried about this storm

And concerned.

i thought this is a weather enthusiast forum ,so people would be looking forward to see extreme events not worry about them.

Its not although we wouldn’t be prepared what with internet and social media everywhere now.

That’s true, though I guess many people are on a tight budget and can’t afford to have to shell out for damage to their property. Plus travelling in severe winds is pretty dangerous. 

[JennyJane1]

34 minutes ago, tinybill said:

mod thread talking  about possible 80 mph  in our neck of the woods should make things interesting!

yeah they were yesterday and thats whats worrying me especially as that sting tail often gets us right on the coast here as it exits.

[bluebell]

Good moo-ning!! This is more like it welcome back Sunshine. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

16 minutes ago, bluebell said:

Good moo-ning!! This is more like it welcome back Sunshine. 

So jealous! Kent bathing in sun.. Spectacular 

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

So jealous! Kent bathing in sun.. Spectacular 

East Sussex.  

Nice little place Icklesham is, many a time we’ve gone out to The Robin Hood for an evening meal.

Horrible and grey in London..

[jright35]

9 minutes ago, Surrey said:

So jealous! Kent bathing in sun.. Spectacular 

Not all of Kent lol!

Thick clouds here in Sittingbourne 

[lassie23]

Just looked in the MOD thread and it's official, winter is now over.Best of luck next year for the start of the mini ice age, should make things less marginal here

[James Oliver]

3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Just looked in the MOD thread and it's official, winter is now over.Best of luck next year for the start of the mini ice age, should make things less marginal here

So dramatic! What you seen? 

[lassie23]

6 minutes ago, James Oliver said:

So dramatic! What you seen? 

Apparently the cold spell is dead before it even got started lol

[James Oliver]

10 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Apparently the cold spell is dead before it even got started lol

Everything I've seen is just Scotland NI and NW England. SE is positively tropical next week, therefore was it ever a thing for us anyway? 

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, James Oliver said:

Everything I've seen is just Scotland NI and NW England. SE is positively tropical next week, therefore was it ever a thing for us anyway? 

Apparently there was a chance of wintry showers lol, I don't think the model output can be taken too literally at the moment , too much flip flopping about

[shotski]

1 hour ago, James Oliver said:

Everything I've seen is just Scotland NI and NW England. SE is positively tropical next week, therefore was it ever a thing for us anyway? 

I don’t think it’s any massive surprise, at least not to me. 

The MOD thread will always get carried away and ramp any cold in sight but the met office were never really on board. We obviously have access to ECM, GFS etc but that’s only the tip of the modelling iceberg. Obviously the met have Mogreps and Glosea 4 and maybe more that we don’t know about. In other words they are playing with super computers while we’re toying around with a ZX 81 ☹️?

[snowspotter]

I would suggest that those of us in the south east need to write off January along with the last 5 Januarys . One day of falling snow and about 3 frosts sums it up. Its not looking good this winter I feel.  Luckily I am heading off to Austria which is about to get pummelled. suggest anyone who can gets over to the alps if they want to see some snow 

[James Oliver]

What are the average conditions in Oslo mid-February? Has anyone been? I'm a teacher and fancy a trip up there for a few days in half term.

Will I see any snow and experience cold? Thoughts?

[alexisj9]

I have sunshine, didn't expect this, thought I would have frontal cloud from the stalled front in the west by now. Has that made any progress yet?

 

[snowrye]

3 hours ago, Daniel* said:

East Sussex.  

Nice little place Icklesham is, many a time we’ve gone out to The Robin Hood for an evening meal.

Horrible and grey in London..

 

3 hours ago, Daniel* said:

East Sussex.  

Nice little place Icklesham is, many a time we’ve gone out to The Robin Hood for an evening meal.

Horrible and grey in London..

Just up the road from me,the queens head is good as well in icklesham,back to the weather,pah,at least the sun's out