SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

[yamkin]

100mph wind gusts recorded at Great Dun Fell, North Pennines

THAMES BARRIER WILL BE ACTIVATED 'CLOSED' AT APPROX 10:15 HRS TODAY

 

 

[yamkin]

73mph wind gusts recorded in West London

Edited January 3, 2018 by yamkin

[yamkin]

89mph wind gusts recorded in Isle of Wight

Edited January 3, 2018 by yamkin

[stainesbloke]

Apart from a very gusty W’ly wind, it’s quite a nice morning here, good to see sunshine again. 9C currently. 

[alexisj9]

6 hours ago, snowray said:

This is prime snow time of the year, and we get gales!

Stop messing around, it will be springtime soon, wheres my snow.......I WANT MY SNOW AND I WANTS IT NOW!

Wait a week, or less, it' coming.

[Dami]

I slept all through it, didn't hear any rain or wind, although hubs actually got out of bed to check what the gush of water was. very windy still. Our garden is full of rubbish, a sigh on the school was blown off a gate, but I couldn't see anything else had happened. people had bins out thinking it was collection today but all it seemed to do was blow a few lids off. School head thought the roof of her house was going to fly off.

 

  

 

 

 

 

[James Oliver]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

Wait a week, or less, it' coming.

I'm not convinced it is. Looks dominated by a high settling over UK - clear, dry and cold.

[Donna3397]

This is my view this morning, not to bad, very rough still here. I have never seen the river this high. 

[tinybill]

I'm just hoping they open the bridge this afternoon over the a 14 if not it will be  a nightmare to great home  tonight

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, James Oliver said:

I'm not convinced it is. Looks dominated by a high settling over UK - clear, dry and cold.

That's just the beginning.

[lottiekent]

For me I’m happy with the fact we are going into a north east flow to start with. Once that’s in we can then worry about the longevity of the cold snap/spell and look at shorter range for any showers and (fingers crossed) streamers into the region.

Exciting model watching the next few days if nothing else!

[claret047]

On 1/1/2018 at 21:19, Southender said:

Off to Iceland on Thursday, coming back on Sunday....just in time perhaps...

Hello Southender,

Whilst you are there can you get my groceries too if I send you a list?

Kind Regards

Dave

[JennyJane1]

1 hour ago, tinybill said:

I'm just hoping they open the bridge this afternoon over the a 14 if not it will be  a nightmare to great home  tonight

Its still very windy in the exposed spots, i could only just keep my feet while i was out in it.

[SLEETY]

• Not looking very cold according to met office next week i n this Easterly max temps of 5-6 c  mon tues and min temps above freezing.So not cold enough for snow.oh well maybe one day 

[yamkin]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

• Not looking very cold according to met office next week i n this Easterly max temps of 5-6 c  mon tues and min temps above freezing.So not cold enough for snow.oh well maybe one day 

Depends on the upper temps. We can still have snow even at ground temps 5-6c, but is not ideal though

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

• Not looking very cold according to met office next week i n this Easterly max temps of 5-6 c  mon tues and min temps above freezing.So not cold enough for snow.oh well maybe one day 

Thu not what the office metrologist said on ITV this morning. She bulishly said anything that falls will be white. That is why I knew they were changing their update. Now they have. Cold week next week.

[Dami]

was very windy out in the garden, not so now. Bubs class has a new topic, which is north/south poles and it looks more christmasy now in the room then it did in December, honestly the classrooms have fairy lights, trees and silver snow flakes on the windows. Excuse me 

Anyway Met0 are telling me it's going to be cold and dry and calmer. *waits*

 

 

Edited January 3, 2018 by Dami

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Depends on the upper temps. We can still have snow even at ground temps 5-6c, but is not ideal though

And much more common in March, April and May, yamkin, when lapse rates tend to be steeper...I can't ever remember witnessing falling snow, at 6C, in January before...

[alexisj9]

Winds from this storm dying down now,  let's see what the next one does. Think it crosses further south so could be breezy over us again.

[Donna3397]

45 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Winds from this storm dying down now,  let's see what the next one does. Think it crosses further south so could be breezy over us again.

Is that the weather front moving in later tonight?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Evening guys and girls, cats and dogs...

So storm Eleanor will be going down as one that caused some problems and a very note worthy storm. Maybe the impacts felt further North more so than southern areas but that was always the case.

Did the models do okay? Well the ERUO4 did pretty bad actually, it well over estimated the convective showers after the first front. The Arome did better but still over did it slightly. Wind speeds though the Arome did VERY well... 8/10 it upgraded the speeds right at the last minute.

Aside from the crazy 3am wake up I had seeing trees side ways and a roaring wind plus the drain pipe episode this morning, it seems for once my area inland came out okay.

 

 

Moving on, stay out of the model thread if you want to stay level headed. As usual with an evolving and very exciting event unfolding (or not so) it gets a bit stupid in there. The issue I think is some party goers don't know how to handle their drink. Let along know what they are drinking.. If you get my drift. We have some great posters in the regional thread that will keep us updated on the longer term stuff. I sometimes touch on it but its not really my forte, short range is my game.

Finally onto tonight compared to last night it will be a fart in a thunderstorm..

Wind

GFS  40mph MAX inland 50MPH coast                                           

In house net weather Same as GFS 

AROME not worth saying This is a typical one by the Arome of way over doing wind gusts. It really does have a habit of doing this. Anyone know why? I know I have contradicted the above but I want to illustrate how models can and are wrong all the time. Even at T0 they can be wrong. Hence my comments on the MAD thread.

 

 

Rain.. 

Same order as above..

GFS

 

Net weather

 

AROME

  

So not a very pleasant early morning and a tad breezy.. But nothing that we wouldn't normally expect in the height of winter. Although the rivers are very high so any rain is very un welcome. Luckily after this it looks to turn drier.. But colder. And that leads to me to one cherry picked chart of the evening on the long range, the rest I will leave to the more experienced.

 

 

Unleash the beast...  Dreamy charts... 

 

 

 

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, DonnaThw said:

Is that the weather front moving in later tonight?

Yes.

[weathergeek]

To be(easterly) or not to be(easterly), THAT is the question!!!!

As much as I'll be soooo gutted if we don't get snow from any of this, you can't deny that it' exciting watching the developments as they unfold!!! Fingers crossed for all if us, especially those South of the Thames who missed out last time!!xx

[Donna3397]

For the more knowledgable people on this forum, please can someone explain why weather forecasts (bbc, net check) are still saying the temperature will be around the 6 degrees mark??  Are we not in reach for the cold???Are they hanging on till we get closer to Friday/Saturday. Newspapers all starting to emerge with “snow bomb for east” blah blah

Edited January 3, 2018 by DonnaThw

[bluebell]

6 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

For the more knowledgable people on this forum, please can someone explain why weather forecasts (bbc) are still saying the temperature will be around the 6 degrees mark?? Are they hanging on till we get closer to Friday/Saturday. Newspapers all starting to emerge with “snow bomb for east” blah blah 

Yeah I was wondering exactly the same, if I wasn’t on this forum I wouldn’t have the scoobiest that there may be a chill down and snow on the cards... mind you perhaps that’s a good thing, hopes raised anticipation, then a massive NO SNOW SHOW crushing my January blues morale further into the soggy wet ground!!!