SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

[snowrye]

I'll believe it when its snowing hard and laying,we all know it will go belly up for us,wrong side of marginal again,rain for us,while everyone north of that bloody m4 corridor will be buried in the good stuff

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, snowrye said:

I'll believe it when its snowing hard and laying,we all know it will go belly up for us,wrong side of marginal again,rain for us,while everyone north of that bloody m4 corridor will be buried in the good stuff

Like marginality on ECM starting from Saturday especially with SSTs moderately below average. 

[Paul Sherman]

I think there is a massive difference between marginal battlegrounds and true advected dry easterly air for the South East.

Best shot of winter for the whole region by far

[JennyJane1]

39 minutes ago, Southender said:

Off to Iceland on Thursday, coming back on Sunday....just in time perhaps...

Blimey, I thought the queue in there was long enough on New Year's Eve.

[Southender]

18 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I think there is a massive difference between marginal battlegrounds and true advected dry easterly air for the South East.

Best shot of winter for the whole region by far

What you thinking Paul? Favourable conditions for our friend to ignite?...

 

[Southender]

7 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

Blimey, I thought the queue in there was long enough on New Year's Eve.

Very good Jenny. Hoping to get a snow fix in Reykjavik later this week, see the Aurora and take a dip in the geothermal pools. Then come back to Narnia in Essex ??

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Mate

Yh am hoping we can get that ENE trajectory, although this is looking like a slow burner, Scotland then NE England, just hoping everything falls into place with favourable uppers, its been a long time since the SE had this chance.

[Southender]

4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Hi Mate

Yh am hoping we can get that ENE trajectory, although this is looking like a slow burner, Scotland then NE England, just hoping everything falls into place with favourable uppers, its been a long time since the SE had this chance.

Fingers crossed. You seen the conditions in Erie lately?...mental. Now that is Lake Effect snow!

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, Southender said:

Fingers crossed. You seen the conditions in Erie lately?...mental. Now that is Lake Effect snow!

I dare say if we had -20C 850hPa temps over the North Sea with a cutting ENE flow we’d be up to our necks in the white stuff it’s very overdue. 

[Donna3397]

52 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Like marginality on ECM starting from Saturday especially with SSTs moderately below average. 

Looks chilly

[Laurence Hill]

Sounds like it’s all over bar the shouting on the other side

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, Sharpedge said:

Sounds like it’s all over bar the shouting on the other side

Already.

Mind you looks windy for Wednesday. Let's get that over with first.

[Laurence Hill]

5 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Already.

Mind you looks windy for Wednesday. Let's get that over with first.

Now it looks like it might be on again!

think I’ll just sit back.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

A very windy 24 hours to come starting from tonight, I'm pretty sure met will update their warnings this morning. 

When on computer will post some charts up, also convection weather UK gave iasued a coverage for the whole UK mentioning enhanced gusts in any showers and perhaps lightning along south coast 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The saying goes.. 

Red sky in the morning... 

[Sparky68]

Been away for a few days , can somebody tell me which areas maybe in for some snow [ if any ] this weekend?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

42 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

Been away for a few days , can somebody tell me which areas maybe in for some snow [ if any ] this weekend?

No detail till earliest Friday 

 

Closer to now... We have Storm Eleanor that has been named by the Irish Met. The impacts greater further North but even down here she will be felt.. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/ 

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 02 Jan 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 03 Jan 2018

ISSUED 23:21 UTC Mon 01 Jan 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Main interest during this period is the cold front and following post-frontal environment where deep convection is likely. Frontal wave eventually evolving into a closed low will promote WAA ahead of a well-forced cold front. In a strongly-sheared environment with marginal instability, elements of line convection seem likely along the surface cold front during the evening hours, capable of producing a spell of squally rain, strong gusts of wind and perhaps a tornado given backed low-level winds.

 

Lightning activity may be limited somewhat with this feature given limited convective depth, but as colder air aloft overspreads SSTs, so showers that follow the cold front will have greater convective depths and better potential to produce some lightning, especially offshore and close to western and southern coasts. Once more, strong gusts of wind and small hail will be possible with this activity.

Various warnings out I expect these to get updated by the met office UK around 10am this morning like normal.

Firstly rain..

EURO 4 model suggests the following

Currently the first associated front is moving through the region now, pretty calm and placid conditions with moderate rain, this then clears through the early afternoon to leave perhaps some short lived sunshine..

 

By 6pm the next band of rain is moving in and this is where the wind will begin to increase. By 6am tomorrow its still raining but these "streaks" in the PPN are heavy convective showers as mentioned above these will enhance the wind gusts if you are caught under one.

 

Im using the AROME for wind gusts BUT it tends to over do it a touch but what it does do is highlight those convective wind gusts.. (note time jumps)

  

These are not gospel charts the heavier showers and ones conductive of enhancing the wind will be down to radar watching, but just to compare PPN chart and same time gust chart together

 

 

Arpege for midnight 

100 KMH = 60mph give or take 2 or 3 mph

Interesting weather ahead if you like the lively side of things then there is the end of the week... wont go into any detail yet!

 

EDIT: I take about 5-10mph off the general wind gusts showing. So taking this in here is my estimate on what we will see. The BBC this moring said 40-50mph inland.

 

Inland areas: 40-50mph prehaps a touch higher 

Coast: 60mph possibly higher maybe top end 60s.

Exsposed coast: 70-80mph.

In the showers I think any areas can expect the gusts to be enhanced somewhat but to but a figure on this is impossible, I have witnessed a standard winter storm wind go from gusting 50mph to 75mph under an intense squally shower. Was responsible for blowing all my fences out and making next doors shed take off a few years back 

Edited January 2, 2018 by Surrey

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Updated met office warning, it was 2 separate warnings but has now been combined into one the mention of gusts above 60mph inland and a very squally feature overnight.. Brought forward also to start at 6pm tonight 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-01-02

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A deepening area of low pressure, now named Storm Eleanor, will track east across the centre of the UK. This will bring gales and severe gales to Northern Ireland and northern England late on Tuesday and overnight, clearing eastern England during Wednesday morning. The strong winds may clip southern Scotland, with continued uncertainty in the northern extent. Further south, severe gales affect western and southern coasts this evening and overnight, with a very squally feature bringing a short spell of intense rainfall and very strong gusts to some inland localities. Wednesday daytime sees a very blustery day, with squally gusts accompanying showers in many areas. Throughout this period, gusts of 60-70 mph are likely along exposed coasts, with the more exposed locations seeing gusts close to 80 mph. Inland gusts exceeding 60 mph are possible.

[Dami]

Most amazing red sky, wanted to take a pic but I needed coffee then it had gone, but pretty much lived up to the old wives tale, just started to rain and isn't going to be wonderful on the first school run of the year tomorrow either. 

My new coat will either bring us the cold or it won't - only time will tell.

[Sparky68]

 Was a pretty sky

[Chris101]

Nice post Surrey, would of taken me about 6 hours, i've used a pc for years but never get any quicker.

[Sparky68]

We have quite bad flooding around here already , last thing we need is more rain.  Thanks for the detailed post , will keep an eye on the thread over the coming days.

[yamkin]

ECM wants to continue this block with an Easterly flow. It will be interesting if ECM does not back down. Will GFS follow suit if this is the case?

[stainesbloke]

Saw the briefly red sky this morning (shepherd’s warning) and the rain has duly arrived, with wind overnight and tomorrow. Not a nice spell of weather at all, I’m still off sick with this nasty ‘flu bug so quite happy to be indoors.

[yamkin]

1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

Saw the briefly red sky this morning (shepherd’s warning) and the rain has duly arrived, with wind overnight and tomorrow. Not a nice spell of weather at all, I’m still off sick with this nasty ‘flu bug so quite happy to be indoors.

Get better soon

Edited January 2, 2018 by yamkin