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Short range model discussion - into 2018

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High res MODS at 1240 UTC and 1300 chart. St and mist/fog beginning to roll back in here now.

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The cloud and rain associated with the next frontal system can be seen west of Ireland on the 1500 UTC geostationary and this will track north east over Scotland during this evening and overnight, just skirting N. Ireland. The main bulk of rain will move into the North Sea leaving a showery regime in it's wake. A pretty clear night elsewhere except st and fog will effect the far south west.

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Tuesday 00 sees the main low just south east of Iceland with the associated waving front straddling the country and tracking slowly south east and weakening over the next 24 hours, The front marks the airmass boundary and it still hot in the south east ahead of the front. And during Tuesday evening and overnight a thundery outbreak will track north east from France over this area to be in the North Sea by 0600 Wednesday.

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The transition to a more unsettled and cooler period continues but often tending towards a NW/SE bias.

The current NH profile

gfs_z500a_nh_2.thumb.png.5f04ca9042524c40099ec3f04475f2a6.pnggfs_t850a_nh_2.thumb.png.b390fdf35385ed5990a62382af096642.png

It's been a mainly clear night apart from a band of cloud associated with an upper occlusion and some showery rain over the north of Scotland courtesy of the frontal system associated with the low to the west and also some St./mist over the far south west.

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The latter should clear quickly this morning portending a sunny and warm, locally hot, day in Wales and much of England. But N. Ireland , Scotland and northern England will be subject to cloud and patchy rain as the cold front moves slowly south east and the temps in comparison quite depressed. Except perhaps later over north east Scotland (Foehn Effect)

PPVA89.thumb.gif.ca8ff60936b0859e5bae69bca1d33e08.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.b1cb850812cb8917e30a8b4fa7994c16.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.3d7f0ff938c6c1a9e47ad3e7336e42e8.png

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Over Monday night and through Tuesday the cold front continues to track slowly south east but with little or no rain on it by now. But it does mark the boundary between the very warm air to the south and cooler and showery regime to the north so once again it becomes very warm/hot in the south east which could trigger the odd storm albeit the convection over France appears to be sliding past to the east.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.dd7d5d59290d7f12354e41dd2d63423f.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.8e1883bde2ed08e3f2878aa93d4def6b.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.3bc96afc3c670de22f39626336097b31.png

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By Wednesday the weakening cold front is in the North Sea and with the low just south east of Iceland the UK is in a fresh, much cooler, westerly portending showers, mainly concentrated in the north and west.

gfs_t850a_natl_11.thumb.png.047c627b7d680b20872a4baa8e13a391.pngPPVK89.thumb.gif.fa40034dd64eef99bf82b6f12dfddb26.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.0895a629aa0cb39427115aba17629510.png

A continuation of the westerly showery routine on Thursday but with the odd trough and weakening fronts littered about more concentrated periods of rain are quite likely and temps generally a tad below average

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Friday sees the next wave tracking rapidly north east west of Ireland with the complex associated fronts bringing rain and freshening winds to most of the UK.

gfs_uv250_natl_20.thumb.png.3caeb0baa48b9a9269f62fa0bf086ef9.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.a12318af7f05cd04c347fb9da3555e60.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.ba28836636a200c3c85a9a2cf7b14662.png

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The NH profile at T120

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Edited by knocker
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Looking at the fax updates for tomorrow and the ecm it looks quite likely that the showert/thundery outbreak will track north east across the south east Tuesday evening

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And later in the week some wet and windy weather for Saturday. Might just be okay for the wedding on Friday Lottie

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Quite an interesting 0600 UTC geostationary. I'm a million miles away from being an expert on sat. imagey but clearly there are three different airmasses to the west, Showers behind the frontal cloud stretching from Ireland to Scotland and low Cloud, Sc or St?, to the south west. Currently a layer of low Sc here

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As I'm more or less confined to barracks at the moment with arthritis a quick look off piste at the NOAA, GEFS and EPS anomalies.

Basically a pretty zonal NH pattern with low pressure over the Arctic with an weak associated trough down through Greenland NW of the UK. With some positive anomalies in the eastern Atlantic and some weak ridging from the south west by the Azores high, albeit only really a feature with the GEFs, A fairly relaxed upper flow from a westerly quadrant is the order of the day. This would suggest, to me anyway. nothing drastic and a matter of the det. runs sorting the phasing of the cooler/warmer air and basically how influential the latter will be in the form of ridging. All the makings of a north south split with temps generally around average but with usual regional bias with these scenarios.

7-12.thumb.png.fcb8cc3b2035ea88e055dfb0be013592.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_49.thumb.png.6bb66c7d0a8b6b17c53d6e012ffa380c.png814day_03.thumb.gif.d72d26c7f36b4664bd5322bd0e5c28cf.gif

 

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Just wanted to thank you knocker for your posts. I check your updates daily and find them informative and reliable.

Keep up the good work!

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The cold front(s) on the 1322 UTC MODIS and the expected temp contrasts either side of it on the 14 chart

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The instability just skirting the south east tomorrow evening

2021471330_con20.thumb.png.840ff4fd4a786a3426f91e5a51e3ee9d.png1234370447_cape21.thumb.png.f83c96211940c372fd4fdb316d23baf0.pngpre.thumb.png.8116edbf5df153dc146e72141f5acf03.png

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

The instability just skirting the south east tomorrow evening

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I can’t see the timeframe on my phone as it’s blurry. When would you expect the cooler air to hit the SE based on these charts? Tuesday evening? Early house Wednesday morning? 

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12 minutes ago, c00ps said:

I can’t see the timeframe on my phone as it’s blurry. When would you expect the cooler air to hit the SE based on these charts? Tuesday evening? Early house Wednesday morning? 

Slightly tricky as the convection is running NE and the weakening cold front  more or less east behind which is the cooler air. My best guess would be around the early hours of Weds Say 0700-0800

dew.thumb.png.419e705dd09266c17c2976132b720476.pngtemp.thumb.png.ce763d14ccaa76ec9982c0a957ab19fd.png

Edited by knocker
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20 minutes ago, knocker said:

Slightly tricky as the convection is running NE and the weakening cold front  more or less east behind which is the cooler air. My best guess would be around the early hours of Weds Say 0700-0800

dew.thumb.png.419e705dd09266c17c2976132b720476.pngtemp.thumb.png.ce763d14ccaa76ec9982c0a957ab19fd.png

Thank you 👍

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The ecm has an area of instability around Coruna at Thursday 00. It rapidly develops this and tracks it north east into France in the next 12 hours  Continuing this in the next 12 hours by Friday 00 quite an intense closed low over Denmark and in it's travels just impinges on the far south Thursday evening.

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The importance of this is is it goes on to form quite an intense feature just west of Norway.

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Edited by knocker
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This is the feature mentioned above on this evening's fax charts, all courtesy of the upper trough. Certainly not an uninteresting ecm this evening

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Today is the last day of the current hot spell as a more changeable and cooler regime sets in but it quite likely will not go quietly in the south east. Before getting to more detail the current NH profile

gfs_z500a_nh_2.thumb.png.f9297bf517b421b64edef9af61d1cb88.pnggfs_t850a_nh_2.thumb.png.89f8d4846ee52b53d03aa4d6a05e28ce.png

At the moment a fair bit of cloud across n. England, Wales and the south west associated with the weakening cold front that is gradually moving south east and some bits and bobs of rain in the far north west from the occlusion.

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The cold front is really the major player today as it will again be hot to the south and east of it with the cooler air behind. Thus another very hot day in parts of the south east which will not only trigger some storms but be in the firing line of an unstable low feature tracking north west from France during the evening which could well produce some quite intense outbreaks before clearing into the North Sea.The storms obviously could occur anywhere but probably east of a a line the Wash to west Sussex. Elsewhere cooler with showers in the west and the cold front should clear the east coast in the early hours of Wednesday. The sequence:

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So by Wednesday everyone is in the cooler westerly airflow thus a bright sunny day with showers which could well be heavy and concentrated at times in the north and west.

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As was mentioned in a post last evening a wave forms near Coruna by 00 Thursday and this develops quite rapidly and tracks north east through France into the North Sea during the day accompanied by an area of heavy rain En route this impacts the south east of the UK

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By Friday the Atlantic is revving up and a warm front associated with a complex area of low pressure brings patchy rain to western regions

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By Saturday the complex area of low pressure is more organized and the low is centred over N. Ireland and, in conjunction with the associated fronts, has brought wet and windy weather to most of the UK. Not unusually the far south east excapes and in fact is pleasantly warm.

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The NH profile at T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.a7404226621e5aebdaa654021836c54d.pnggfs_t850a_nh_21.thumb.png.72226ac2bbf9c60e2deb670aba4e3d08.png

 

 

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The 0600 UTC geostationary. Slight rain in these parts

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These just skirting the south east as previously mentioned

An outbreak of intense severe storms seems likely across N France and BeNeLux this evening - supercells with very large hail, damaging winds and tornaadoes possible! Storm clusters overnight while the activity spreads towards NW Germany: H/t severe-weather-EU

storms.thumb.jpg.0f0444422ccd1a0a8005a34b496cd646.jpg

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http://www.estofex.org/

Red
level 2 warning issued for the areas discussed above - there are going to be some monumental storms later, probably more akin to what you see across the plains of the USA than mainland Europe.

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Funny how we put up with all this heat and we aren't even rewarded with the storms when it breakdowns. France is going to be lively tonight

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Medium level instability on the 1200 Herstmonceaux sounding? And the 1400 UTC MODIS and 1300 analysis

2018080712.03882.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.494be9042d1a70378d83ca8e96e66ca8.gifch38.thumb.jpg.a21e5ce5d739a3fcec955f78c1a59392.jpg13.thumb.gif.105636d42eda73012dca415099fd757e.gif

Edited by knocker

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