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Short range model discussion - into 2018

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The EPS mean anomaly this morning. Consistent. And the 0900 UTC geostationary

eps.thumb.png.144265a2226d138cf5c9f6e35f38c333.pnggeo.thumb.JPG.80c690c384f6b541c4d6befab7688b70.JPG

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Apropos nothing really apart from a point of interest but the analysis is such on the 0600 gfs at 12 on the 7th that the 850mb temp is around 18C and the surface 19C If you took the DALR from 650mb you would be looking at a surface temp of 40C

sounding.thumb.jpg.be4d0fd228b3f9f3266cb77574c510b2.jpg

Edited by knocker

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2 hours ago, knocker said:

Apropos nothing really apart from a point of interest but the analysis is such on the 0600 gfs at 12 on the 7th that the 850mb temp is around 18C and the surface 19C If you took the DALR from 650mb you would be looking at a surface temp of 40C

sounding.thumb.jpg.be4d0fd228b3f9f3266cb77574c510b2.jpg

DALR = Dry Air Lapse Rate?

TIA..!

JC

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29 minutes ago, JeffC said:

DALR = Dry Air Lapse Rate?

TIA..!

JC

Yes.

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The high res MODIS at 1350 UTC. Graduating the Cumulus?

ch38.thumb.jpg.5c2be8806f006ac02e6f6d8100de8253.jpg

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The frontal system currently bringing cloud, rain and breezy conditions to N. Ireland and western Scotland will continue the effect the region over night and into tomorrow morning and but a brief respite before the next system tracks in from the south west, bringing more rain and wind into N. Ireland by midday.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.09deb55445a1ce513d402d5ec0ca6dc5.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.b2becaa01093cc3511342fc5cfe2a053.gif

overview_009.thumb.jpg.346cb2f0b247b5825a5618d929431c93.jpgoverview_012.thumb.jpg.51f6d1de76d844a426ff1055bfc34742.jpgoverview_015.thumb.jpg.671bcee8c7bc064e89b36cb70f18a787.jpg

overview_018.thumb.jpg.ee9e8549fbb1605efd552ccf2dc03b53.jpgoverview_024.thumb.jpg.22255dcff7c3dbf353909ff67bb7572d.jpg

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So often the orientation of the high cell is key to temp variance

at.thumb.png.511d92befe8d32292d71c8d607fc3bb9.png

193413101_fa.thumb.png.b4b138fea5b5b2971d64e26ddb3fe9a8.png544305225_sa.thumb.png.44a749e0be91d75673ae8eaa680f3f7e.png1359709065_sua.thumb.png.19935d313546fb7c2dee4691d90ec93c.png

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7 hours ago, knocker said:

Yes.

Cheers

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Over the next few days pretty much a NW/SE split with cloudier and cooler in the former and the reverse in the latter. The current NH profile

gfs_z500a_nh_2.thumb.png.ab5b3ec247a995710c4c22916e232949.png

A reasonably fine start to the day in many areas but still cloud and patchy rain around in the north west and western areas. This will develop into a fine day, with perhaps some variable cloud, in much of England and Wales and eastern Scotland but the next frontal system us swinging rapidly north east and cloud and rain and strengthening winds will reach N. Ireland by midday and spread to Scotland and the north of England through the afternoon and evening.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.d9b1c28d070ce5f74e03f3fe1b241f6c.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.bdcba62ab74e5b849f1515e4dbde702a.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.2948de11b282398bb2d524f05f97d811.png

overview_012.thumb.jpg.7204b2536154f4cce0604598f1b5294f.jpgoverview_015.thumb.jpg.1520b4c523e6dfe4948266792b81b95f.jpgoverview_018.thumb.jpg.0084dccca6eb19ec1870e17b1b0d1267.jpg

overview_021.thumb.jpg.c70901cc53a970a4e319666edefd30a6.jpg

The cloud and patchy rain, perhaps interspersed with some heavier bursts, will linger across the north west and through the night and Thursday will spread further south and east to encompass much of Wales and the west of England with the cloud even encroaching into the midlands, Throughout this the south east will get a tad warmer.albeit it's still relatively warm elsewhere.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.b4a2f53bccb45be2201f2c7879bcf925.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.f44797afcc28b2ac2aff5f35add1b275.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.5636887b0fb366ab34772e21984d883a.png

overview_036.thumb.jpg.500ff805115466e6940cd42a06a97621.jpgoverview_039.thumb.jpg.c55bf04bacc6abde007bf82ef0681384.jpgoverview_042.thumb.jpg.61f0da7abb6a526919cb686c25070b6d.jpg

It's worth pausing here to take an overview oft he situation and we find a cut off upper low to the south west that has initiated some very warm advection from NW Africa into a Iberia and equally important still a lot of west > east energy from N. Canada, and from the sub tropical jet, thus a strong westerly upper flow over the UK

gfs_z500a_natl_12.thumb.png.ffb12c41a4e5481e4c08f7cbc7e8393e.pnggfs_uv250_natl_12.thumb.png.f3eccff354b4c4c2d9dd40b8902ee8ea.pnggfs_t850a_natl_12.thumb.png.e2776f7151c4de237c7e48b6f89f4e67.png

So for the time being the north remains cloudy with patchy light rain but with high pressure becoming more influential in the south temps becoming hot in some areas.

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.b00ce553b60b000535ccd6f6c291e46f.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.99cda3b01ffac78b1812ed35a59cb534.gif

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_12.thumb.png.9017cdbf02ceaa42e579ab61edb4227c.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.f0d917c5474570bcc64ba3b5ac17a27d.png

Saturday sees the influence of the high pressure spreading further north thus a sunny and warm day for most and hot again in the south.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.1d5b3c92f6ffd12c2b398b9065f340a5.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.8a7dd07c08b14d70e1b656cf7c3e3f35.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.8a92079c2a5867bc230753d6aa11d7f1.png

Sunday sees the upper low and trough in the Atlantic still pushing east but this serves to amplify the ridge over the UK and to advect the warmer air further north to the south west resulting temporarily to a shift west of the surface temps. There is a very fine balance here of the energy/amplification scenario and the future evolution so this is just according to the gfs.

gfs_z500a_natl_20.thumb.png.cd71d3fab9b5f5d7592d529aec19cd6d.pnggfs_uv250_natl_20.thumb.png.f217aaaab6ca9131fdac0b43c658f33a.pnggfs_t850a_natl_20.thumb.png.bdbb33732e76741b74f44d15432b9880.png

PPVO89.thumb.gif.df5f0da796e3ecfa2f66202b822bdc66.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.7d6169e18165f7d2c53adb3bec65fcb4.png

The NH profile at T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.d2b39e58ebc87d6321642fdf9518d051.png

 

 

Edited by knocker
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There are always going to be minor differences in detail but essentially the gfs and ecm are singing from the came hymn book over the weekend

406639403_500a.thumb.png.52ed06e614f2d9ed6c25a2488c6750aa.png1167796384_850a.thumb.png.915e4255270838b38b0a003ca057ddf3.png

573310216_satmax.thumb.png.8f81524b44f9b9a45b4cbbd5c1f452d9.png773793850_smax.thumb.png.b5c5f6d843b61554377e31b72bc8d987.png

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3 hours ago, knocker said:

Actually I answered too quickly Jeff. It should be Dry Adiabatic Lapse Rate. Sorry. only just noticed my idiocy.

http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Dry-adiabatic_lapse_rate

Thanks, looking at the glossary it could almost be interchangeable anyway, and the concept is comparable, with one being a little easier to get your head round than the other! 

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1 hour ago, JeffC said:

Thanks, looking at the glossary it could almost be interchangeable anyway, and the concept is comparable, with one being a little easier to get your head round than the other! 

Just to clarify this Jeff

An adiabatic process is one during which the temperature of an air parcel can only cool or warm through expansion or compression, respectively. As air parcels rise, they expand and therefore cool adiabatically; as air parcels sink, they compress, and therefore warm adiabatically. The DALR is the rate at which unsaturated [relative humidity < 100%] air parcels cool or warm and is a constant 9.8°C km- at any temperature or pressure level.

The MALR is the rate at which saturated (RH= 100%) air parcels cool or warm, but unlike the DALR, it is not constant. When rising saturated parcels cool adiabatically, they release latent heat, which offsets some of the adiabatic cooling. Therefore the MALR is smaller than the DALR and its magnitude is dependent on temperature, because warmer saturated parcels release more latent heat. At warmer temperatures, the MALR is less steep than it is at colder temperatures indicating that as warmer saturated air parcels rise, they cool more slowly than colder saturated air parcels. In general, 6°C km- 1 can be thought of as an average MALR value, but the MALR is larger at colder temperatures and higher altitudes. In fact, if an air parcel is cold and/ or high enough, the MALR will nearly equal the DALR.

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24 minutes ago, knocker said:

The 0900 UTC geostationary

PPVA89.thumb.gif.63b5e6cbd623e97f8556441af33d9cf8.gifgeo.thumb.JPG.d75ce472fb6dbc9aa5d159450fbcea1b.JPG

Looks like the previous dormant front across the near continent coming alive again with some thunderstorms breaking out along the front with pulses of very warm surface air mixing with the cooler uppers. Will be interesting to see if it expands .

C

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The frontal system currently bringing cloud and rain to N. Ireland and western Scotland will continue to track NE over Scotland and the cold front will push into Wales and western areas of England so cloud and patchy rain here through the evening and night. Further east a pretty clear night.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.5b72a338d3a2c65906cfd329d1100fcc.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.302b05d1c199602c95f7107ac2d2b21b.gifgustkph_012.thumb.jpg.e273cc58211c989b2faf4ef63b53d335.jpg

overview_006.thumb.jpg.2f82870d8084db3e0547a56374daae31.jpgoverview_009.thumb.jpg.255e1678c8cdd6cf760173f1a00d79c7.jpgoverview_012.thumb.jpg.e483ec2e034949da5d3dac8358e4d837.jpg

overview_015.thumb.jpg.4ac8a4a35912152eea7876d7a8bf91e7.jpgoverview_018.thumb.jpg.ef764f71796943656d7266781395625e.jpg

The 1500 geostationary

geo.thumb.JPG.3638088f5223fcd936621c875dd09589.JPG

Edited by knocker

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This evening's fax chart for Saturday has the high cell centred to the south west of Ireland with a weakening cold front across the UK all of which leads to this ecm interpretation.

PPVK89.thumb.gif.b8a561d28ee9464b32e06655844a047f.gif1072292656_sata.thumb.png.7f06f18cb3f6561b06530b90bfd8efd8.png

Over  the next couple of days the east bound energy compresses the high cell thus keeping the N/S differential and quite warm in the south.

500.thumb.png.b8eadedd7a355ad1cb2ecae5c3c820e9.png300.thumb.png.f5cf69a70c5432765053e02bf84236bf.pngtemp.thumb.png.7c87077877211ebbb943fa7212c9c864.png

 

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The outlook is for the temps generally to continue above average, perhaps significantly so at times in the south east, but with conflicting energy flows very much a NW/SE split with the detail on occasion difficult to pin down.

gfs_uv500_natl_19.thumb.png.bbf3ed23034ad4db5af0d3c38e413924.png

The current NH profile

gfs_z500a_nh_2.thumb.png.3e5fa8f9a3703ff5ebf91e0ed93bafce.png

Today the warm front that brought some rain to the north west yesterday has moved away leaving much of the UK in a humid, warm sectorish, south westerly airstream thus cloudy and misty and maybe some drizzle in western areas but in the clearer south east temps starting to pick up although it is quite warm generally. But during the afternoon the next system tracking up from the south west will bring cloud and rain into N. Ireland and then later into Scotland.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.de9e9bb34762cf81a13e4367c3027ed9.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.bb26b31a3f7f28e49b2fe215428ed0b8.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.e898caaafc6ab568781ec9cd951a5521.png

overview_015.thumb.jpg.80495141217f112808164267708f07c1.jpgoverview_018.thumb.jpg.b7ef40aa93f985b6432d9c9186dd4630.jpgoverview_021.thumb.jpg.971624be9d4783e95872b91c4d203812.jpg

The system will continue to bring patchy rain to Scotland during the night and into Friday and as the cold front pushes south east so will the cloud and rain, albeit that will tend to fizzle out as the front weakens against the high pressure. But it will mark the temperature boundary and south of the front temps will get locally hot.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.ad00201f5baed051811138d024693eda.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.a79d451e1ddbd8d06adc68b087e5b98c.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.fc51975619448c0fda9e224d48111faa.png

overview_027.thumb.jpg.716fb87d18f9dee6627a7fd5814c9818.jpgoverview_030.thumb.jpg.2cc948a6b65749790da820ef3ffeef46.jpgoverview_033.thumb.jpg.2599cb4693a339414f9841d48430b826.jpg

overview_036.thumb.jpg.9b294da24bfea2329a79940d9192c0a7.jpgoverview_039.thumb.jpg.cf0ecadf2612c9c60d57ed8f363f6439.jpg

Overnight Friday and trough Saturday fronts continue to track around the strengthening ridge but perforce weakening as they do so so just the odd shower over northern Scotland but still the emphasis on a NW/SE split

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.49e9115e33a6ba2faf6a0cc4385916c0.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.ef63e0c3058e1764f4dcdf56afdb0247.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.44babeef1fcf522e9e6d3104a4b1d32d.png

Sunday the twin energy flows are entering the picture with the trough to the west getting some traction on the jet but for the time being the ridge is quite resilient and generally it is another warm and sunny day

gfs_z500a_natl_15.thumb.png.304c1399f4ebfacbdb18c042c27dc98d.pnggfs_uv250_natl_15.thumb.png.b04bda449cec01db5120a55bc6bfa50d.png

PPVM89.thumb.gif.1847eb7131b37636ac31a1cb406533e7.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.949e21b548e855c43bb997f6df93bc0e.png

By Monday the fronts and low pressure will have made some inroads in the north west so some cloud and rain into N. Ireland and Scotland but apart from here generally another very warm day,

PPVO89.thumb.gif.8b91924dab95c27221d69ab63799bda0.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_20.thumb.png.65a48ae79d0763751fd526b2a4762dc5.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.c204b6b15e45904c59af782593c1d8f1.png

The NH profile at T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.1026f87889a89641fa354b06c4726d34.pnggfs_t850a_nh_21.thumb.png.21a868a7831f09a38e381b1e5a78c0b2.png

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At T120 the UKMO not identical to the gfs but in the same ball park

ukmo.thumb.png.c727daa5815ca17fa132829a34831d82.png

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And also the ecm but they are struggling to resolve the detail going forward.

1100806703_500h.thumb.png.0d7600103748c92f5a4e3f2eea6ab787.png2021274850_500w.thumb.png.29e972b9b8ce115a81a22503254df4e8.png850.thumb.png.e924845007904c8891508dc461ce77ad.png

The 0600 UTC geostationary

geo.thumb.JPG.06a49e53068f00eb07dff0d002199e10.JPG

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Cloud and rain, particularly over N. Ireland and Scotland, but not exclusively as the cloud also stretches down through Wales and western regions of England is currently the order of the day  But in the clearer eastern regions temps have reached 30C in some places. Clearly illustrated on the 1500 geostationary and chart.

geo.thumb.JPG.0880e4b03ed8dd083f82d7eb68986085.JPG15.thumb.gif.de8dd44eb6f3e210ff4fc14601a2ece0.gif

Overnight pulses of rain will continue to run north east effecting N, Ireland and Scotland and down the north west of England but still a mild night in the humid south westerly

PPVA89.thumb.gif.313e81ca82a05c61b0c17c95c97f8b8b.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.0d46e8b6bb1d6b328e528bc10c27b85e.gif

overview_006.thumb.jpg.13717b72f3280e96db2e8893c3845626.jpgoverview_009.thumb.jpg.b3c4fa42647d79ea33d8609b1c2e662b.jpgoverview_012.thumb.jpg.53aa7c202913c3d4780a88527840b51e.jpg

overview_015.thumb.jpg.eebb708487672e3ebc561bf3831b7087.jpgoverview_018.thumb.jpg.cdcf1da914ca266fa22fe2615a1b0e20.jpgoverview_021.thumb.jpg.aacdb465d10c1fb622c54d4b3f869cb6.jpg

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