Short range model discussion - into 2018

[knocker]

A wave forms off the coast of Newfoundland at T48 and tracks quickly east on the jet south of the Atlantic trough and then north east over Ireland at T120. The front brings some rain to N. Ireland and Scotland and a few drops in other western regions but quickly fizzles out against the block.

But the dispersal of the energy to the west is still causing problems unless you reside above the Finnish Arctic circle.

Edited July 21, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

No change in the overall pattern so straight into this morning's detail.

Apart from N. Ireland and western Scotland it's been a relatively clear night, apart from the odd mist and fog patches, and this will be the story of the day. Cloud and patchy rain/drizzle over the former whilst the rest of the country, once any mist/fog has quickly cleared, will bask in a very warm and sunny day, and this includes eastern Scotland which may hit 27C (Foehn Effect).You can add two to three degrees to those gfs temps.

Overnight and through Monday the cold fronts will move very slowly south east thus more cloud and light patchy rain in N. Ireland, Scotland and northern England which depresses the temps a tad but south of here, apart from far western regions, another sunny and very warm day.

A similar scenario on Tuesday with weakening fronts straddling the north still some patchy rain around but again over much of England very warm, locally hot in the south east.

Again a similar story on Wednesday but it's worth pausing here to take a look at the bigger picture. And here we find that the offshoot from the vortex, mentioned in previous posts, has phased with the Atlantic trough and formed a new and intense upper low in mid atlantic and the energy swanning around this will put more pressure on the impressive block

With this renewed pressure being exerted from the west the split over the UK is trending now more to the west/east with cloudier and cooler ( relatively) conditions pertaining in the former.

So the question remains, where do we go from here?

Edited July 22, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

A far bit of cloud on the 0600 geostationary. A broken sheet of high Sc here and perhaps ties in with indications of medium cloud on the Nottingham sounding from the upper warm front.(mind there is enough to choose from)

[knocker]

The wave depression swings north east through Weds/Thurs into Ireland before becoming absorbed in the main low and the associated front brings some rain to Scotland, N.Ireland and the far west of Wales and England before petering out.

[knocker]

High res. MODIS at midday and surface chart

 

[knocker]

Follow the cold front with the Hirlam

[knocker]

According to the gfs the wave tracks north east mid week and becomes absorbed by the main low as the front stalls over the west of the UK

Edited July 22, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm swings the low north east mid week and has it to the NW of Ireland by 12 Thursday, about to be absorbed in the main low, with the front running down through Ireland. over the next 24 hours it does make some progress east to bring cloud and rain to Scotland, N. Ireland and the western parts of England and Wales.

[knocker]

It is useful to keep an eye on the short term NH profile and anomalies just so that we have a pretty precise idea of the framework within which the det. runs are operating. No big surprise that there has been little change of late with the dominant features remaining the trough to our west centred to the NW and the impressive block in northern and north west Europe, aided and abetted by low pressure in SE Europe.

Thus we have a brisk SW/SWS upper flow over much of the UK but little eastward movement of any Atlantic systems, allied to the strong north easterly drift of the much warmer air over north west Europe just to the east. All of which  portends a W/E split over the UK with quite marked regional temp variations. It's this knife edge scenario and detail that the det. runs have to sort,

So on to the detail. Currently a cold front over Scotland, preceded by a trough,

is bringing cloud and some patchy rain, and these will move erratically and slowly south east during the day, There may also be some early cloud and mist in the south west but out side of the areas mentioned it will become a sunny and very warm day, particularly in the south east.

The front will more or less fizzle out over the midlands during the evening and overnight but there will still be some showery rain around on Tuesday so again some marked regional temp differences with it again getting very warm in the south.

A quick reminder of the overall picture on Wednesday, The main upper low is between Greenland and Iceland with the trough extending to the south east where a wave is forming on the front. This is due to track north east.

 Wednesday will generally be another warm day and again very warm in the south east.

By Thursday the wave and associated fronts are over Ireland but any rain stays to the west but this general moment does drag some warmer air north over much of the UK resulting in a very warm day generally.

By Friday the front has made some headway east and we are entering W/E split territory with it again being very warm south east of a line roughly the Tyne to Dorset and now there is some risk of the odd storm being triggered,

And the position at T120

[knocker]

At T96 the ecm has the front associated with the wave, now absorbed by the main low, over Ireland  and it's about to traverse the UK into the North Sea over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile NE of Newfoundland another low has formed and will track rapidly east, then north east, on the jet which is the result of the Polar jet and sub tropical combining in the western Atlantic.

Edited July 23, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The 0600 UTC geostationary. A layer of Sc here

[Sky Full]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

The 0600 UTC geostationary. A layer of Sc here

Looks like the cloud might hang around in the west for most of the week due to slowly traversing successive fronts?

[knocker]

35 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Looks like the cloud might hang around in the west for most of the week due to slowly traversing successive fronts?

Certainly cloud is more of an issue to the NW/W with lingering fronts and a different airmass.

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Certainly cloud is more of an issue to the NW/W with lingering fronts and a different airmass.

Although looking at the latest BBC forecast (hmmmmmm!), it seems to move back west a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday.

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Although looking at the latest BBC forecast (hmmmmmm!), it seems to move back west a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Not sure what it is but this morning's fax charts

[knocker]

The 0900 UTC geostationary

[Sky Full]

The cloud base has lowered here now and is delivering some welcome rain - albeit light.  This is not showing up on any radar I can find but is predicted correctly by the WRF 0.5 with more of the same tomorrow....

 Wednesday looking like the driest day of the week in the west, at least.

 

[knocker]

The high res. MODIS at 1110 UTC

[knocker]

The midday chart. Temps widely around 30C in East Anglia, 15C in Stornoway.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

15C in Stornoway.

 

If only I wasn't disabled- I'd be up there in a sho if I could find temporary work!

[knocker]

Some nice fair weather Cu over the east of England on the 1500 geostationary. And the chart for the same time

[knocker]

So according to the ecm the story this week is essentially about the major upper low to the west evolving as wave depressions track around the south of it and then become absorbed. All of which entails it in a orientation shift and thus distribution of energy which does briefly lead to the very warm air being directed further west over the UK Thursday through Friday.

Illustrated on the surface thus

The fronts associated with the passage of the waves do eventually traverse the country introducing cooler air by Saturday

Max temps at Synop stations today

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/18.html

 

Edited July 23, 2018 by knocker

[Coopsy]

9 minutes ago, knocker said:

So according to the ecm the story this week is essentially about the major upper low to the west evolving as wave depressions track around the south of it and then become absorbed. All of which entails it in a orientation shift and thus distribution of energy which does briefly lead to the very warm air being directed further west over the UK Thursday through Friday.

Illustrated on the surface thus

The fronts associated with the passage of the waves do eventually traverse the country introducing cooler air by Saturday

Max temps at Synop stations today

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/18.html

 

Given that 33oC was reached today do you think those figures on Thurs/Friday are a bit underestimated? 

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, c00ps said:

Given that 33oC was reached today do you think those figures on Thurs/Friday are a bit underestimated? 

Quite possibly but when discussing the ecm, for example, I prefer to stick with what the model is saying. Apart from the obvious fact that forecasting max temps is way above my pay grade.

Edited July 23, 2018 by knocker

[Coopsy]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Quite possibly but when discussing the ecm, for example, I prefer to stick with what the model is saying. Apart from the obvious fact that forecasting max temps is way above my pay grade.

Gotcha we’ll find out soon enough. Thanks for all the updates I look forward to seeing them every day

Edited July 23, 2018 by c00ps