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Short range model discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The high res. MODIS ( courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving Station) at 1130 UTC and 1100 chart confirm a very pleasant day today and to last evening's post this morning's 10-15 500mb mean anomaly also confirms the very impressive block.

 

ch38.jpg11.thumb.gif.f40b046bda82fab346db5c8d5ae383e4.gif10-15.thumb.png.e25250bd206686856a262f6ce5aac1e0.png

 

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm has a fragment of the vortex ejected into the Labrador Straits at T108 which 12 hours later is developing over the tip of Greenland and is about to be absorbed into the main trough and become quite and intense upper low/trough in mid Atlantic in the stand off against the block. How this develops is quite important imo

427210397_tues00.thumb.png.dbe3a2bee93d5d78931ee7812f15e8a5.pngecmwf_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.d4c7343e79d961e0a94812e5462ba518.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

And a quick look at the weekend A few fronts and troughs floating about so just the odd bits and pieces of precip. and tending towards the NW/SE split with Sunday being the warmer day in the SE

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Just a brief look at last night's medium term anomalies just to keep abreast of the long wave upper pattern within which the det. runs are operating.

 The main players remain the vortex over NW Greenland/N. Canada with associated troughs down through northern Russia and the other south through Greenland into mid Atlantic.Downstream to the latter is the continuing and very impressive block over eastern and northern Europe ably supported by low pressure to the south east.

With the centre of the high pressure temporarily a tad further east the main upper flow backs a little to the south west in the eastern Atlantic and over the north of the UK leaving the south in a much more slack, low pressure area,

This portends a N/S s[lit with some quite variable regional temps and weather albeit the former still above average, but particularly so in the south and east. This is of course where the det. runs come in to sort the detail

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_8.thumb.png.b24cd85775ed2d31d1fea900d33cdbcc.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_29.thumb.png.c0a7bd78365417741d4bb83d2c74250e.png

Back to the here and now and very much a NW/SE split today with the fronts and rain that were over N. Ireland and Scotland at 0300

2018_7_20_300_MSG4_31_S1_grid.thumb.jpeg.4467da94405862e35bd63f1eec35815e.jpeg

tracking slowly south east during the day with the rain becoming quite patchy as the progress of the fronts becomes quite problematic.Meanwhile skies to the east and south of this remain clear and temps rise sharply which will trigger some storms in these areas. If you happen to catch one the rain could be quite intense for a brief period. Both the rain and storms will tend to fizzle out by late evening.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.f76102340f646c2b39529ec3c5f65ad7.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.f2be6c9a1d9483c5217881d1887f08df.gif929168605_maxf.thumb.png.71bd9712c221a9284d986fd9fc8fd12a.png

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Cloud could well linger in western areas overnight and into Saturday but should burn off to some extent as the day progresses whilst again further to the the east temps will rise quite sharply once again and with the increasing humidity this could once more could trigger the odd storm

PPVI89.thumb.gif.6ab27059e61955ff833f854875909aa0.gifPPVJ89.thumb.gif.06bee2390cfe216e5ad7b8285986bcc4.gif1970408106_maxs.thumb.png.5db3bca06ebbb49508e161e4f3758a6e.png

Sunday sees the upper trough to the NW developing and surface fronts bringing cloud and some patchy rain to the north west whilst in the south and east of England it will be hot and sticky with maybe the odd shower littered around.

gfs_z500a_natl_12.thumb.png.5f0b2debedd88fdac2aa687877be9a3d.pngPPVK89.thumb.gif.9316c75164042902ab973ed4fc9897d9.gif

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_12.thumb.png.8973e71fc6d3cbc0442e20ad01a67e2f.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.979b1b41d0703b4ca6c3bfafddeb8af4.png

On Monday not a huge change to this scenario except a more marked delineation between the NW and SE with the latter becoming hot. whilst the former still under cloud and patchy rain.

gfs_z500a_natl_15.thumb.png.add2e1ef33aa4ca2d29c964878724998.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.2cf640e5394ac82cabb8c73f2d7129e4.gif

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A similar story on Tuesday with upper trough established to the west (where we came in earlier) with the very sharp NW/SE delineation continuing.

gfs_z500a_natl_19.thumb.png.1dfd468bdadd335d2c2b4b706386861a.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.306ab5d58810c2542df097b7b31d00ac.gif

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_20.thumb.png.8e61c78d3e38115dc878d0e4805ef381.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.d45909e6fc8cb4aa3b386f7e394d1713.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

One other quick point. I posted briefly last evening about the ecm and a fragment being ejected from the vortex lobe into southern Greenland where it develops and becomes absorbed in the main Atlantic trough and how this develops is of some importance. Well the same applies to the gfs this morning.

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.de3c2c3778daf3d4a885665513638cf6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

And just to wrap this up before I pop down to see Sidney the ecm also still has the new upper low over the tip of Greenland at T120. Over the following few days it absorbs it into the Atlantic trough and the development of the subsequent invigorated trough and the dispersal of the energy against the block differs from the gfs and this can subtle, or not so subtle, changes to the surface analysis in our neck of the woods

ecm_z500_anom_nh_6.thumb.png.b1fd40c1d419fe02cf8da10cb45aecbc.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The 1400 chart shows the variation in temps, even in the south east where some medium level cloud has encroached. the storms most likely just to the west of East Anglia

14.thumb.gif.cf4f74207ac437e596dcc97004c005f3.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Monday sees the upper trough in the Iceland area with a surface front straddling the country with the south under the auspices of the ridge and some very warm temps but a very marked NW/SE delineation

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Little to add to the outlook that hasn’t been said before. The battle between the energy out west and the block to the east continues apace resulting in very marked regional variations of weather and temps which can generally be summed up as a NW/SE split.

gfs_t850a_natl_21.thumb.png.6cfe8cb40aee4f1ada5326813d04d9fa.png

Meanwhile...................Cloud associated with yesterday's front is still lingering in places, mostly from south east Scotland down through the spine of England, with still the odd patch of showery rain around, but this will tend die out and the cloud to thin as the day progresses. Elsewhere it will be sunny, fresher and cooler in the north west but becoming increasingly very warm in the south east. This may well trigger the odd storm again. By evening more cloud and some patchy rain will effect north west Scotland as a warm front, associated with a low over Iceland, approaches.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.f9ea1ed2f3167e94ef7176efaae87594.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.ab72795f73a5d8c79ba7134d6eccfb4e.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.79146d328397bbe94348a5d5ec8c988b.png

overview_018.thumb.jpg.7940b897e88e61a1e0fd1a01909f45db.jpgoverview_024.thumb.jpg.7325831781b1c42f16d776985a8826b3.jpg

Over Saturday night and through Sunday the warm front will track south east, fizzling out as it goes, so not much rain on it but cloudy and humid and misty conditions prevail behind it in the warm sector until the cold front clears the far north west later, Meanwhile in the south the temps will once more climb and it will become very warm.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.6f9a6c2f4e64ec9c240507bb14a581ef.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.92779260db97f5122a43cb449d040aaf.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.74785ec622173126d737c07e0c05bcf2.png

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Overnight Sunday and though Monday the cold front will stagger slowly south east long with some patchy rain whilst south of this temps will once more escalate, again emphasizing the regional differences.

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.b388399425c9cfe76f0382990fadc07b.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.4d80d3e2cf1c93f316c6c5f34fc2dce5.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.48253edcc285880ef4458c66ae393659.png

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A similar scenario on Tuesday. With low pressure still over Iceland and weakening fronts straddled across the country, the north west will be fresher with some showers whilst it will be very warm in the south east

PPVM89.thumb.gif.d95f9c98d075812b81ba33073bf13756.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.ca27d27e83698b2171561e4c6899814a.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.7982dae8a26a8a0cc8f5dc5d292d8ff2.png

A similar fayre on Wednesday with perhaps the odd storm in the east/south east.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.aeff01546a6e578f807c74526403ba54.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_20.thumb.png.4727d7de8e1d3381e6f8bedfbfdac3f5.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.d3cc32b6b3e45c16960921f5a797f201.png

And at T120 the NH profile with particular interest in the offshoot from the vortex and how this will play out

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.dcf19255c5136a7dd20bbcc909960024.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

No need to repeat the detail vis the ecm but just for some variation a wave depression forms on the front at T72 north east of Newfoundland and tracks rapidly east to be over NW Ireland two days later bringing rain to N. Ireland and Scotland and possibly NW England Wales.

ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_4.thumb.png.5469c19a3e6f2d4aaa0113e1a4921e2b.pngecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_5.thumb.png.40f75abad0e4a2643db8c7eac31e0c85.pngecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_6.thumb.png.b6f21179cff34c49fc63b680b2087b94.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
3 hours ago, knocker said:

As already mentioned Monday through Tuesday sees a weakening cold front sink partially south but we are not talking copious amounts of rain.

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1892782638_m12.thumb.png.43be1e75ff35082c7f1a26dffb3c4727.png1267832187_t00.thumb.png.939e5b1788564236f95a9d5e9d26dfd7.png111265179_t06.thumb.png.bd79925c3dedff4445e1f8553427e89d.png

Presumably it'll have broken-up before getting to Norfolk?

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
1 minute ago, knocker said:

Indeed

Drat.  I think our garden is a couple of weeks away from resembling this:

2481-n-marina-dr-thermal-california-9227

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