Short range model discussion - into 2018

[knocker]

Precipitation totals by 00 Sunday initiated at 0600 today.

Edited March 30, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

This evening and tonight remaining wet in central and southern areas with showers in the north east of England in the fresh easterly wind.

 

[knocker]

Interesting tweet from James Warner

It is starting to snow in Exeter... temperature has been dropping more than expected. Looks like we're the cold-spot of England! 

Weather Conditions observed on 2018/03/30 at 15:20 UTC at EXETER AIRPORT, UK (EGTE)

Sky conditions: partly cloudy. Obstruction(s) to Vision: moderate rain showers. Temperature: 2.0 Celsius. Dewpoint: 1.0 Celsius. Relative Humidity: 93%

Edited March 30, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

These high altitude blocks cause too much cold spillage and are not good at this time of year unless you can sneak into a WAA region. We need rid as soon as.............

Edited March 30, 2018 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Yes a chilly day tomorrow with a brisk East N East wind bringing gales over the spine of the UK adding to the wind chill.

[knocker]

The dew points still loking a fraction on the high side for significant low level snow on Monday according to the ecm. Not of course definitive.

[knocker]

The low and front currently situated over central England will move slowly east during the day. Thus the outbreaks of rain and hill snow will do the same and it will become drier in the west and less windy with the drier and sunnier areas being N. Ireland and western Scotland. Quite a chilly day as well with temps a little below average

A snapshot of the current situation

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-1.76,52.98,2223

The low will continue to track east during the night and through Sunday with the bouts of rain dissipating leaving clear periods in many areas and quite a widespread frost.by morning and a slack pressure gradient over the UK. Thus generally a dry day day apart from a few showers in the east. But by lunchtime a front and heavy rain associated with the depression to the south west are already starting to impact Cornwall and these will move north east during the rest of the day and evening.

The track of the front will continue through Monday and of course the question remains will the rain turn to snow and if so where and how low down. According to this morning's GFS snow will be struggling in the lower regions until further north but there is still uncertainty about such a marginal scenario. What we do have by the end of the day is very marked latitudinal  temp gradient

By 00 Tuesday the overall pattern is very similar to one highlighted yesterday vis high latitude blocking and spillage with low pressure dominating the Atlantic and a brief touch of WAA over the UK.

So certainly less cold on Tuesday with temps near average but frequent rain showers will be the order of the day and the low pressure in the eastern Atlantic is getting more organized with some able assistance from the energy still exiting north America and later a more concentrated band of rain crosses the country accompanied by strong winds as an intense low 974mb tracks into eastern Ireland. And the colder air is never that far away.

Edited March 31, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Satellite 0530 UTC

[knocker]

This morning's fax charts 12 Sunday > 12 Tuesday to supplement the above

Edited March 31, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

According to the ecm at1200 Monday dew points north of a line N.Wales to Hull in the 33-34F region. South of it 40-45F

[knocker]

The 0900 surface chart, still a lot of rain around central and eastern England, and geostationary (courtesy DWRS)

Edited March 31, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Unsettled with rain and windy, and cooler for a time, weather remains the outlook for the middle of next week as energy/troughs track east under the block. Lets hope the continuing trend with the ext EPS anomalies keeps getting some traction

[knocker]

My morning down the country park is looking a bit iffy tomorrow. Interesting dew point distribution

[knocker]

Big time lightning activity across the central and northern Mediterranean region today (over the past 12 hours) - over 16 000 lightning flashes detected!

[knocker]

Fax charts 12 Sunday > 12 Monday

 

[knocker]

Today with fragments of fronts still lying about will be cloudy in east, central and northern England with still some wintry showers in the north of Scotland. Elsewhere sunny intervals.But dry with light winds so not unpleasant but by midday cloud and rain, which will become heavy at times, will affect the far south west as fronts from the low pressure area to the south west track north east. The rain belt will make steady progress during the day and by 00 Monday will be over Wales and the Midlands.

As the rain continues to move north through the night and Monday morning it will increasingly turn to snow but as ever in these marginal situations the heavier falls will favour higher ground but significant falls at lower levels cannot be ruled out.

So by 00 Tuesday the snow belt is over northern Scotland with perhaps blizzard conditions pertaining in the strong ESE wind with low pressure covering the UK with centers to the south west. But as can be seen there is still a fair amount of energy exiting Canada and the south east US with more toughs tracking east putting the trough to our west under pressure.

Through Tuesday, and Wednesday, under this pressure,, the configuration and orientation of the low pressure area over the UK adjusts and with low centers and the odd trough dotted about within the general circulation unsettled showery conditions, with the odd longer period of rain thrown in,is the order of the day. Quite a temp gradient by the evening on Wednesday a the wind veers north westerly

But this is but a brief regime as the low area moves quickly north east and the next trough approaches from the west but changes are afoot with high pressure beginning to amplify so best left here with Thursday looking a quieter and drier day.

And the fax for 1200 Thursday

Edited April 1, 2018 by knocker

[Eastnorthwest]

On 30/03/2018 at 07:36, Eastnorthwest said:

The weather's version of the battle of Britain is going to happen on Monday with those on the cold side of the low seeing heavy snow especially away from the coast and those in the marked warmer zone of the low will see heavy rain with flood issues becoming more apparent 

The models are still fairly unreliable beyond 3 days so the areas at risk to snow might still change over the next 48 hours so lots to keep an eye on in the coming 2 to 3 days,a real weather fest for us all ,fascinating times for weather fans

Latest charts now indicate that any snow risk in the southern half of the UK will be brief  and that flooding will be the main risk for low lying areas near rivers and road uses in these areas 

Further north snow will be more of an issue as temps are much lower

But all this will now change by Tuesday as temps of double figures will move north to all but northern scotland giving us all another feel of spring between the heavy downpours for most

[knocker]

The 0900 UTC geostationary (courtesy DSRS) with the ssyem fast approaching from the west.

 

[phil nw.]

Very much a north/south split tomorrow as the fronts move up the country dividing the cold and warmer air.

The fax at noon tomorrow and expected surface temperatures

  

A look at the precipitation type and freezing levels

 

We can see the dramatic differences in the freezing levels south to north after the passage of those fronts.A lot of snow on the northern side as they move up the country over higher levels before the warmth heads in.

 

[knocker]

The 1200 high res. MODIS (courtesy DSRS) and surface chart. Some rain already arrived down here.

[knocker]

The possible transition from rain to snow

[knocker]

At the moment the GFS has the low stuck over the UK on Wednesday so wet and windy weather for most areas with snow in northern Scotland. Without going into any detail from here the high pressure then amplifies, elongating the upper  trough, and initiating some nice WAA .

Edited April 1, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The frontal systems accompanied by the rain and snow, (mainly on the higher ground) belt will move slowly north over Wales, England, N. Ireland and into Scotland during the day. Thus the wet and windy weather will clear from the south leaving clear intervals with showers, but much milder air than of late, in it's wake.

This general movement north of the cold and wet weather will continue overnight and Tuesday morning along with the warmer air further south.

So in a nutshell the rest of Tuesday will stay wet, snowy,and windy in northern Scotland whilst the rest of the UK will have sunny intervals and showers once the cloud has cleared and there will be a very marked temp contrast as well ranging from 2C-14C.

Through Wednesday the area of low pressure to the west of the UK has tightened up and moved east bringing sunny intervals and heavy showers to N. Ireland, Wales and England but still a continuation of the rain and snow in Scotland where it will also remain quite windy.Meanwhile another intense upper low has arrived in mid Atlantic courtesy of the energy exiting North America around the burgeoning Bermuda high pressure, This is to play a key role in the next development.

The low over the UK moves away east on Thursday leaving most places with sunny intervals and perhaps the odd shower, albeit still a marked N/S temp gradient. But out to the west the Bermuda high continues to amplify changing the alignment of the upper trough to the west of the UK and forcing it further south which in turn backs the upper flow and starts to advect warmer air into the UK

Through Friday the realignment of the upper trough and WAA continues but wind and rain associated with the surface features of the trough to the west are starting to impact the west of the UK whilst the east remains dry.

Again a marked temp gradient with temps in the 17C region in south east England

 

 

Edited April 2, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The satellite at 0530 UTC

The 0600 surface analysis showing a lot of moderate rain in the Midlands

Edited April 2, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

According to the ecm

Tuesday - Min 0-4C N.Ireland, Scotland and northern England 4-7C elsewhere. Max 3-5C western N. Ireland and northern Scotland 10-14C elsewhere

Weds - Min 0-4C N. Ireland and Scotland 5-8C elsewhere. Max 2-5C N. Ireland and Scotland 10-13c elsewhere.

Thursday - Min 0--3C in N. Ireland, Scotland and NW England 3-7C elsewhere. Max 5-7C in N. Scotland 10-12C elsewhere.

Friday - Min 0-3C in northern Scotland and 4-7C elsewhere. Max 7-8C in N. Scotland 11-15C elsewhere

 

Edited April 2, 2018 by knocker