Short range model discussion - into 2018

[knocker]

The snow is well into the south and west on the latest analysis

 

[Wivenswold]

Snow pepping up in Essex now, so even short term modelling is borderline FI.

[matty40s]

The met office finally given in to here and stuck the red warning on for an area of the SW.

[knocker]

Time for a beak and coffee and toast as I just went to post in the regional thread and paused to collect my thoughts and missed a whole chapter.

Anyway the 0600 analysis has the convergence zone in the western Channel with the upper front over northern France and the surface one further south and the whole caboodle tracking slowly north west

Edited March 1, 2018 by knocker

[fujita5]

8 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

Snow pepping up in Essex now, so even short term modelling is borderline FI.

Yep, totally against forecasts. The radar shows a large expanse of light snow becoming moderate quite rapidly. Visibility reduced to 1 mile along the train route from Clacton to Colchester. Looks like the upper warm front is more active then expected.

[MidnightSnow]

Sorry for the 'will it snow' nature of this post, but has there been a westwards correction of the low overnight?

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Sorry for the 'will it snow' nature of this post, but has there been a westwards correction of the low overnight?

No, if anything the ecm slower to track it west over 48 hours

Edited March 1, 2018 by knocker

[Buzz]

3 hours ago, Interitus said:

Hopefully this clears up any confusion.

 

Kind of.

Thanks for the explanations but I'm still a bit puzzled - the west of Wales doesn't look like getting that much snow. However past easterlies have always given a good amount in the same area from frontal systems approaching from the west or south west. Presumably the main factor causing the relative lack of western Wales snow today/tomorrow is that the fronts are approaching from the south ? (Then of course the mountains do their bit as you have described).

[ItIsGee]

i live in north manchester, (rochdale/heywood/bamford) and the snow is like a conveyor belt and hasnt stopped for hours, looking at the radar, a peppering is looking like it will be in for the day and no warnings? M62 closed schools shut and all we get is a mere yellow warning.  an amber one would make the public more aware i think?

[mb018538]

This current weather has just reinforced what most people on here knew already - In a snow event, trying to accurately forecast more than a day in advance is nigh on impossible. Even today there is much more snow across the SE than predicted, and other areas have similar scenarios. The models really struggling to pin this down - as Chris Fawkes has already pointed out today.
 

 

[West is Best]

1 hour ago, matty40s said:

The met office finally given in to here and stuck the red warning on for an area of the SW.

Yep. And they should have issued this before people went to work this morning. It's not overly clever suggesting people taking immediate action after they have gone out in the morning.

I think it could be severe across the south-west later :/ Fun ... providing you are not travelling.

[matty40s]

The arpege usually over does precipitation but seems to have been spot on this week, leaving the other models far behind.

[Rustynailer]

Stopped snowing here and no sign of any approaching on the radar.

Not what the latest GFS is saying.

Looks less in the mid Channel, but more moving NE over Channel Islands.

[SizzlingHeat]

Precip on radar too far west? For Dorset anyway?

[matty40s]

Is that anaprop just south of Dublin or the mother of all mini snow storms

[knocker]

The 0900 geostationary with Emma and frontal structure off NW Iberia and S/ NW. (courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving Station)

 

[knocker]

The 0600 Icon as the low and warm front track north bringing the snow and strong south easterly winds into the south west and Wales

[Lynxus]

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

The 0600 Icon as the low and warm front track north bringing the snow and strong south easterly winds into the south west and Wales

If only it was 50 miles further east!

[Interitus]

5 hours ago, knocker said:

Overnight the showers will persist in the north with perhaps the snow in the south west easing but with a significant risk of freezing rain and with the strong winds persisting still feeling bitterly cold.

Freezing rain being reported quite widely across northwest France this morning and in the Jersey and Guernsey METARs

[knocker]

13 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Freezing rain being reported quite widely across northwest France this morning and in the Jersey and Guernsey METARs

Funny enough as the 06 GFS shows it in a couple of areas tomorrow morning I've been looking for a good sounding that might illustrate it. Not brilliant but close

Edited March 1, 2018 by knocker

[swebby]

2 hours ago, West is Best said:

Yep. And they should have issued this before people went to work this morning. It's not overly clever suggesting people taking immediate action after they have gone out in the morning.

I think it could be severe across the south-west later :/ Fun ... providing you are not travelling.

Hi WIB i feel this is an over reaction- we have been under an amber for two days now "Amber means you need to be prepared to change your plans and protect you, your family and community from the impacts of the severe weather based on the forecast from the Met Office" If that fails to cover forward planning then i'm not sure what does.?  Exeter Uni/College both announced yesterday they would be closed today so this has hardly caught the SW unawares.  The Red warning, as with Scotlands, is now in place for the more localised severe effects and even those i suspect are going to be subject to change over the next few hours.  Issuing a region wide Red for some people to then only experience an inch or so of snow would make the warning system ineffective.

Really not looking forward to the prospect of freezing rain tonight, will keep an interested eye on reports from France/Channel isles.

 

[swebby]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Funny enough as the 06 GFS shows it in a couple of areas tomorrow morning I've been looking for a good sounding that might illustrate it. Not brilliant but close

I have that location as being up in Glocs so probably on the very edge of the risk area. This will be very hit and miss i fear, hoping the graphic indicating Graupel being more likely is correct.  Tomorrow morning could be a bit of a nightmare for Devon/Somersett/S Wales

[ITSY]

Wondering whether Emma could spin off some moisture into central and Eastern areas this evening - a bit like this morning. Most models still looking good for a secondary burst of snow across the central swathe of England tomorrow, probably nothing spectacular but a top up of an inch or two. Even if you're not in the SW, model watching and radar watching tonight will be amazing. Alpine levels of snow on its way! 

[knocker]

The midday geostationary with the warm front over northern France (courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving Sation)

[knocker]

Temps much better behind the front but of course France is not subject to the double whammy

Edited March 1, 2018 by knocker