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Paul

Short range model discussion - into 2018

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The updated fax charts Monday 1200 +12+12 confirming a snowy interlude across the north, Midlands, Wales and the west country

PPVE89.thumb.gif.d9f1486ca40a7d5161ef9a916ad3731f.gifPPVG89.thumb.gif.f4a2e89f6f4c52b3098a080d7c32bf23.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.942c1cdaf639039000f423078747aedb.gif

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Netwx model going with a similar tale (gif - click to animate it)

NetWx-SR - Short Range Hi-Res UK Forecasting Model - Edited.gif

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Some general max temps this week from the ecm (the usual caveat vis model temps)

Monday 1-3C

Tues      1-2C

Wed      -1-+1C

Thurs     -2 - 0C

Friday   +8C in the south west peninsula to -2C in the Midlands on either side of the front

Edited by knocker

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One has to move quite fast to keep up with the continuing pattern changes at the moment. The intense high cell continues to move west and weaken and becomes a strongly anomalous ridge over north east N. America into Greenland whilst to the south east and south of this upper trough and negative anomalies dominate the eastern and central Atlantic. Thus quite a complex and very slack upper flow to the north west/west of the UK whilst the stronger westerly flow to the south into Iberia resulting in a south westerly flow over the southern half of the UK. Albeit there is not total agreement on this

So essentially this would portend low pressure fairly static over, or very adjacent, to the UK so tending unsettled with systems likely to track up from the south west but the detail of all of this will need to be sorted by the det runs, As also the temps but the percentage is still generally below average but not excessively so.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.392299df936d139dfca02f20164d8551.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.57ad2b09c870070cc7fb729ca1b8c4f1.png610day_03.thumb.gif.42b2a53123d00c8c2ac7525e4e78c3e4.gif

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Sat image shows a fair bit of cloud (courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving Station)

ch4.thumb.jpg.561493135b616233a6fc8b76d5afd2d5.jpg

Edited by knocker

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The 0700 analysis, even in a sparsely populated chart, shows snow showers a fair way west in the north and the Midlands

uk.gif?1519629109

Edit

I see I don't know east from west again :wallbash:

Edited by knocker

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Thanks very much for the above.... can you post a link to a " snow accumulation/ over time " out to 72 or 120 hrs so I  can see what to expect  over the  course  of this event 

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Euro 4 from 00z Tuesday to 00z Wednesday

I still think around the Hull area will be the sweet spot for some heavier snow tomorrow morning

18022700_2600.thumb.gif.f05e49738a6a4e4cf0d0e5c1a6567e3d.gif18022706_2600.thumb.gif.798c52e349bf3d0865e6d2dcce306046.gif18022712_2600.thumb.gif.cc76c5c193e2efe9649845b81dbff63c.gif18022718_2600.thumb.gif.3a54cff6d550c9e49b578e21062c1519.gif18022800_2600.thumb.gif.304fc8760f3b8c4ab3c80a77f480105e.gif

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1 hour ago, landslave said:

Thanks very much for the above.... can you post a link to a " snow accumulation/ over time " out to 72 or 120 hrs so I  can see what to expect  over the  course  of this event 

I'm afraid I don't know a link for this, others probably do, apart from RBs site

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/web_snowdepth.html

Or this but I've no idea whether it is working

http://meteocentre.com/surface-weather-station/map-synop.php?date=2018022600&lang=en&area=uk&size=standard&type=snow

 

Edited by knocker

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54 minutes ago, Chill Pill said:

Thank you Knocker for posting in here. You seem to be keeping this thread going almost single handed which is a shame at times like this.

I'll second that. Makes such a pleasant change from the childish hysterics in other sections to have something informative rather than what "we" want/need to happen. Thank you Knocker. 

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Thanks for the comments above

The uncertainty regarding the end of the week is illustrated quite well booking at last night's fax for 1200 Thursday and this morning's update for the same time. The updated 12 Friday chart may well be  the key. :)

PPVL89.thumb.gif.0fabd3de8050f920d7cc176daccf1447.gifPPVM89.thumb.gif.4e04612f21a94a360e5bc74edcb46872.gif

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8 minutes ago, DuncanK said:

I'll second that. Makes such a pleasant change from the childish hysterics in other sections to have something informative rather than what "we" want/need to happen. Thank you Knocker. 

I'll third that - despite the relatively low traffic to this thread I hope that the mods keep it going on a permanent basis.

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check the temps to the E/SE and our little low for tomorrow is poised

eur_full.gif?1519638228

 

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1 hour ago, DuncanK said:

I'll second that. Makes such a pleasant change from the childish hysterics in other sections to have something informative rather than what "we" want/need to happen. Thank you Knocker. 

Hear, hear!

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Morning gang ,i am finding this section very interesting ,Thanks all for keeping us all updated , interesting period coming up ,and plenty of surprises possible , todays showers already seem to be further west than was forecast or is it me wish full thinking ,cheers all .:yahoo:

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1 hour ago, Buzz said:

I'll third that - despite the relatively low traffic to this thread I hope that the mods keep it going on a permanent basis.

I’ve learned a lot from you Knocker and also hope this thread will become permanent.  Thank you for the professional way you present your regular posts and for the time and effort that must go into producing all this information - I notice you always seem to be up to greet the 0z outputs and have often wondered if you can survive on very little sleep. 

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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Euro 4 from 00z Tuesday to 00z Wednesday

I still think around the Hull area will be the sweet spot for some heavier snow tomorrow morning

18022700_2600.thumb.gif.f05e49738a6a4e4cf0d0e5c1a6567e3d.gif18022706_2600.thumb.gif.798c52e349bf3d0865e6d2dcce306046.gif18022712_2600.thumb.gif.cc76c5c193e2efe9649845b81dbff63c.gif18022718_2600.thumb.gif.3a54cff6d550c9e49b578e21062c1519.gif18022800_2600.thumb.gif.304fc8760f3b8c4ab3c80a77f480105e.gif

Being in Hull these sort of setups always seems to deliver - its been on and off all morning to be fair

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I too would like to thank Knocker for this thread; I'm sure I'm one of a multitude of lurkers who value his input

Although there are some very good correspondents on the main Model thread - John Holmes, Tamara, Singularity come to mind - in general there's far too much traffic from folk passing confirmation bias off as measured analysis

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Very surprised to see ARGEPE miles off with the convective showers at just T6! GFS and even EURO4 similarly not picking most of them up:

arpegeuk-1-6-0.png?26-11

Looking through all of the models on Meteociel, the only one really picking them properly is the HIRLAM. This looks much more like the actual radar (except it's wrong in Devon I think):

hirlamuk-1-4-0.png?26-10

This is the state of play on HIRLAM by Wednesday morning - a covering of snow for virtually the whole country to add to the more substantial snow in the east. Will be worth checking in 48 hours time!

hirlamuk-45-48-0.png?26-11

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Very surprised to see ARGEPE miles off with the convective showers at just T6! GFS and even EURO4 similarly not picking most of them up:

arpegeuk-1-6-0.png?26-11

Looking through all of the models on Meteociel, the only one really picking them properly is the HIRLAM. This looks much more like the actual radar (except it's wrong in Devon I think):

hirlamuk-1-4-0.png?26-10

This is the state of play on HIRLAM by Wednesday morning - a covering of snow for virtually the whole country to add to the more substantial snow in the east. Will be worth checking in 48 hours time!

hirlamuk-45-48-0.png?26-11

 

 

 

Was just looking at 6z arpege and thinking the exact same. Euro4 the same really but we know already they struggle with showers. Arpege been very good with frontal snowfall though recently so worth seeing it’s output for Thurs/Fri

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A shower anyone? But not just north of the M4 Easterly MODIS at 1045 (courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving station) There is Sc/Cu here

ch38.thumb.jpg.549406a84e8e6534a1d306a1ff685ca0.jpg

Edited by knocker

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As mentioned earlier the updated fax today for 1200 Friday should be interesting given the difference between last night's and the 0600 GFS

PPVO89.thumb.gif.d49be456c95cb5cde076b088abc2e1b1.gifgfs_ptype_slp_eur2_18.thumb.png.b4ddc6a08a520e0a8991dba2c8f8cc23.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur2_21.thumb.png.b92a1c2e86691bd2a155dd3b0e155a5c.png

Edited by knocker

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So the little wave/low swinging in tonight off the N/Sea is a Polar Low. Should be interesting watching it's movements & developments this evening as you say K.

Edited by Polar Maritime

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