Short range model discussion - into 2018

[matty40s]

7 hours ago, knocker said:

And Michael has now reached cat 4. Not looking good over the north east Gulf Coast

This is almost in your timeframe now, NOAA charts show it on a direct hit sometime on Monday, does the trough bounce it up past Scotland or can we expect a big event??

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, matty40s said:

This is almost in your timeframe now, NOAA charts show it on a direct hit sometime on Monday, does the trough bounce it up past Scotland or can we expect a big event??

Sorry you've lost me.

[matty40s]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Sorry you've lost me.

Hurricane Michaels track is looking like a direct hit on Monday - have any of the models you use picked anything up yet, or will they be playing catch up like the NOAA has?

[CheesepuffScott]

3 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Hurricane Michaels track is looking like a direct hit on Monday - have any of the models you use picked anything up yet, or will they be playing catch up like the NOAA has?

Not that I know much, but it's more than likely just going to be a typical low pressure system by then

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Hurricane Michaels track is looking like a direct hit on Monday - have any of the models you use picked anything up yet, or will they be playing catch up like the NOAA has?

Ah I'm with you. This is the latest update from the site I generally use

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspotlight.php?year=2018&storm=14

 

[knocker]

After a warm sunny day. as in most places, right on cue a couple of layers of Ac have encroached in the last couple of hours portending the a showery outbreak this evening. It will probably be more cloudy in general tonight as the showers spread north later before frontal cloud arrives on the scene in the south west just before dawn

And the gfs has ex hurricane Michael losing it's identity south west of Ireland Not before chucking a lot of moisture into the atmosphere

Edited October 10, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The eye of Michael just hit the coast

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

[knocker]

[knocker]

Max of 24.6C at Northolt

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/18.html

[knocker]

The latest advisory on Michael

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspotlight.php?year=2018&storm=14

Edited October 11, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

After the magic day yesterday the outlook is very unsettled with periods of very strong winds and some significant rainfall. The most adverse of the conditions will continue to be in W/NW regions as the pattern continues to favour this divide.

The 500mb and surface charts for midnight and the WV image for 0300.

As can be seen it's quite cloudy over England and Wales and this will mainly remain the case with some showers running north up the eastern side of England. But as the main low to the west of Ireland deepens and swings south west of Iceland the cold front will push east across the UK along with a band of squally,showery rain, perhaps thundery in places. It does't reach the east until late afternoon so still quite a warm day here.

But as can be seen storm Callum is lurking to the WSW of Ireland and by midnight is starting to swing NNE with the associated fronts and rain approaching from the west.

This process continues through Friday bringing strong winds and rain to all regions, apart from the south east, but in particular to  the west and north of the UK with pulses of heavy rain running up the trailing cold front

By midnight Callum is away to the south east of Iceland but another wave has formed in the south west and this also tracks north east bringing more heavy rain and strong winds to western regions on Saturday with the south east remaining dry and very warm. A very marked contrast

By Sunday all the fronts have cleared into the North Sea and a transient ridge is over the UK thus a calmer, drier and cooler day,

On Monday there are various systems dotted about to the west which are edging east, including the remnants of hurricane Michael, thus a quiet start to day does gives way to some showery outbreaks, again tending to be concentrated in the north west, with temps around average.

The NH profile at T120

 

[knocker]

Moderate rain here at 0600

The morning's rainfall from the ecm

Edited October 11, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Excellent 0900 geostationary image show the cold front over the south west (moderate rain here) and Callum away to the south west

[knocker]

Clearance here around 1200 UTC. A very sharp delineation between thick Cs and clear air to the west

[knocker]

Callum deepening south west of Ireland on the 1500 geostationary

 

Edited October 11, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The clearance that got underway in the south west at midday will eventually cover the rest of the country this evening as the front clears to the east. But rain and strengthening winds will arrive by midnight as storm Callum swings past the west of Ireland.

[knocker]

Ex hurricane Michael en route to dying in the Bay of Biscay before the next deep low arrives south of Iceland and associated fronts impact the UK on Tuesday

 

[Mike Poole]

Weather at this time of year my least favourite, I'd have to say, and main model thread not my cup of tea either at the moment with charts showing a frost and some sleet at T384.  That can wait until mid November, I'll be on board with the snow chase by then! And it detracts from some interesting weather over the next weekend.  Looking at ARPEGE 12z, a few things stand out, first rainfall accumulated to T58:

Amber warning in South Wales fully justified in my view.

And at same time, close to midnight, temperatures in East Anglia are bonkers for mid Autumn:

Maximum wind gusts through to T58 showing that the worst is held offshore to the west, really like the use of colour on this chart!

Edited October 11, 2018 by Mike Poole

[knocker]

 

Edited October 11, 2018 by knocker

[reef]

The GFS is showing absolutely bonkers temperatures for Saturday. Locally its suggesting a min temp of 18C and max of 25C:

Our record high minimum is 16.9C and we've never actually surpassed 20C later than the 16th so to hit anywhere near 25C on the 13th would be outrageous.

[knocker]

Apart from the continuation of the unsettled outlook over the next few days, particularly in regard to wind and rain (always keep abreast of the METO updates), the pattern is also noticeable, as previously mentioned, for the WAA into Europe which  just catches the UK. Highlighting once again, if indeed it needs highlighting, the tendency for a NW/SE divide.

The 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 WV image

Storm Callum is currently moving north west of Ireland and filling rapidly. The rain and strengthening winds are already into N. Ireland and western regions of the mainland and the rain will track quickly north east, clearing N. Ireland and the north, before the next pulse moves north on the cold front during the afternoon. The south east remains on the fringes of this activity

During the evening and overnight and through Saturday Callum continues to fill and track north, but further pulses of heavy rain track north east from the western approaches and through Wales to the NE coast as the upper trough 'sharpens' just to the west and a wave tracks north east along the front. Once again the south east escapes and here temps are significantly above average

The wave continues to track north overnight Saturday and through Sunday so the wet and still quite windy weather continues for a time but eventually it clears and the cold front also traverses the country into the North Sea leaving a showery, and much cooler regime in it's wake.

Monday portends to be a fairly quiet and dry day with high pressure being temporarily influential

But by Tuesday another upper trough is moving east and the surface low is deepening quite rapidly and tracking north east between Scotland and Iceland and Exeter has a myriad of associated fronts crossing the UK giving another wet and windy day

And the NH profile at T120

 

Edited October 12, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Incredible Leslie is still performing and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Madeira

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspotlight.php?year=2018&storm=13

[knocker]

And Callum at 0600 UTC

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-7.48,54.49,3000

[knocker]

Terrific image of Callum and the trailing front on the 0900 UTC geostationary

[Soaring Hawk]

As ever knocker thank you for your detailed input here.  As I'm about to go off grid to a small cottage literally on the Norfolk coast I've been keeping an eye on the models, just in case there was any risk of a north sea storm surge in the next few days - which would affect the little place I'm staying in (particularly the low lying little exit road inland).   Feel better having read your posts!