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Short range model discussion - into 2018

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Saturday is far from being resolved as the ecm has the Bermuda high amplifying more north east resulting in the front/wave being a little further south

a96.thumb.png.d0aa07cc57e24b3050a21dfaf96d604b.pnga114.thumb.png.8e84c25deb8398dc8db25f82c4ca3405.png

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Yes, @knocker can confirm that chart you posted. Flew through that over Hudson Bay from YVR to MAN at cruising level. Got a bit of a extra kick on adding about another 180 km per hour. Landed in MAN way ahead of time, pleased to say !

C

gfs_uv250_nh_1.png.249430f9bf97d23c573eff2e842ff285.png

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For those growing old gracefully in eastern coastal regions and Belgium and Holland the scenario envisaged by the gfs will bring back pain fall memories of the 1953 floods which killed 1,836 people. Of course the flood defenses were greatly upgraded after the disaster but not of late in the UK. The Thames barrier for one needs upgrading. I remember it quite clearly

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_23.thumb.png.810c742be8da5e67cfb3b053052e6c17.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_flood_of_1953

 

Edited by knocker
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Much of the patchy rain across Wales and across central England will clear during this evening and overnight but windy and showery conditions will persist over north west Scotland, But during the early hours storm Ali arrives on the scene over N. Ireland bringing heavy rain and very strong winds. Ali will track north east across Scotland where much of the heavy rain will fall with the strongest winds across N. Ireland and the central belt of Scotland with gust quite possibly in the 75mph range The strong winds are not of course exclusive to this area and north and south of that belt will also be effected. At the same time the associated cold front will track south east.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.04a8f92e20b76ea2f10de9f1eddd2af6.gifoverview_015.thumb.jpg.c5a91b8eba4b4b5fcc3aa5104dcf2cee.jpgoverview_018.thumb.jpg.537a93cb3e1ec2b64f2e8025ea90a3be.jpg

overview_021.thumb.jpg.6a63ed17e40ebc300c9bdf5e5a8d5983.jpgoverview_024.thumb.jpg.11b156de6f4335686f9d9ddd01d2afef.jpgoverview_027.thumb.jpg.9093e9622bd553ca86abf0320b5e80b9.jpg

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3 hours ago, knocker said:

For those growing old gracefully in eastern coastal regions and Belgium and Holland the scenario envisaged by the gfs will bring back pain fall memories of the 1953 floods which killed 1,836 people. Of course the flood defenses were greatly upgraded after the disaster but not of late in the UK. The Thames barrier for one needs upgrading. I remember it quite clearly

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_23.thumb.png.810c742be8da5e67cfb3b053052e6c17.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_flood_of_1953

 

Quite possibly the worst single weather event related disaster to affect Europe in living memory.  Whatever the current state of Coastal defences we do at least have hugely better short-term forecasting abilities now and, crucially, significantly better communications which ensures that prior warnings should reach almost everyone in good time.  This is what was sadly lacking in 1953.  Here's hoping that this is one modelled event which will not verify.

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The  gfs still persisting with developing this wave into and intense storm although the ICON continues with this morning's ecm evolution

At T96 it is still a pretty innocuous wave  but rapid cyclogenesis takes place over the next 24 hours

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_17.thumb.png.560732686f05c0245d8e2d7402dc8f96.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_19.thumb.png.0057fa0306d0edc7e2747abed8ac255b.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_21.thumb.png.289bcb87d7434eaa36bc86ab6afeeead.png

gfs_z500_vort_natl_19.thumb.png.7423da4b4216bf65347c8713c8657433.pnggfs_uv250_natl_19.thumb.png.2708d9e30371680581e275a686539c25.png

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Never posted in here before but here goes, the Gfs 12z operational shows tomorrow looking very cool and disturbed further n / nw (scotland & n.ireland) with bouts of heavy rain and gales, even severe gales to storm force for a time with gusts from 65/75 mph and over 100mph across the Grampians. Further s / e looks gusty / windy too but less so than further nw and mainly dry, brighter / sunnier and warmer with temps still into the low / mid 20's celsius for the south eastern half of england.

12_24_windvector_gust.png

12_24_mslp500.png

12_24_precipratec.png

12_24_uk2mtmp.png

Edited by Frosty.
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ECM picks up the feature for this weekend

ECM1-120.GIF

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2 hours ago, knocker said:

This evening's fax updates for Sat/Sun

PPVM89.thumb.gif.7a11ca2ee229b272f895d690c167383b.gifPPVO89.thumb.gif.9eff1d9d08008236195fa3f353a36ba1.gif

Looks like the gfs is on the money at the moment,if it comes off,the gfs has been predicting this storm for Sunday for days now.

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Earlier I was hoping that the gfs was going to be wrong but worrying that it would be right. It now looks like it is just about on the money and the UKMO fax is now showing that nasty little low. I particularly don't like the strength of the N/NE'ly on the back of the low - Potentially some serious gusts then for many of us!  

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Very unsettled remains the name of the game at the moment with some very wet and windy weather on the cards. So with plenty going on I'll attempt to keep this as succinct as possible.

The NH profile (rather speaks for itself) and the surface analysis at midnight

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.0b436a552882da84b66a9066043a1976.pnggfs_uv250_nh_1.thumb.png.54c64b403171c960b5f4c47e7cdaeddd.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.f37e142c662412235e4bafa9f272ace5.gif

As can be seen storm Ali is poised to the south west and it;s tracking north east with the heavy rain and strengthening winds already into N. Ireland. The rain will progress across Scotland during the morning clearing many areas by early afternoon but not northern Scotland which will remain quite wet until tonight. The band of rain associated with the cold front will also track south east during the day.

But the main problem will be the wind and this will be at it's strongest across N. Ireland and central and southern Scotland with gusts in the region of 75 mph possible and still strong on either side of this belt, These should ease later but it will remain windy across northern Scotland, Elsewhere , apart from the patchy rain on the front, broken cloud and relatively warm.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.367ebf24c84a58b9ad8290f9cf1cbb35.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.0d49698aff40043d4ea74b5716197aff.pngg08.thumb.png.63e77ee4e62f1b653a63e02c7491b4d1.png

g11.thumb.png.4b988b2be832bc5096351a924da20c09.pngg13.thumb.png.75a74f238abbb0fb548e59f27eee70d2.pngg15.thumb.png.064c9e8f09d135af9655db06a3f02a4e.png

p09.thumb.png.56e32fa7edf1a7519d6920efbb00d488.pngp12.thumb.png.8d12d120803774721cc25834e5318579.pngp15.thumb.png.001fcdfbc69f3fe61e38d9df13e0a50b.png

So by the evening Ali is well out of the way but with low pressure still adjacent rain and windy weather persists in northern Scotland but complications occur further south as another pulse of rain tracks east along the waving front and starts impacting the south west by late evening. This continues to track east during the night and though Thursday morning effecting the south west and central southern England before a more organized and deepening wave arrives with more widespread rain by the middle of Thursday afternoon which spreads north. Not particularly relevant but still relatively warm south of the front.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.4484be8eea5113a8b41a3930a7401772.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.a7af8d782cbf432539deff7711f0084b.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.d063748a6a4108d883c3f4332937a0a4.png

r00.thumb.png.d4fa9372aee1348a3f0e59a048cb404d.pngr03.thumb.png.57b6db73418eec5bc108df1f50d1f3f6.pngr09.thumb.png.f899352d60a9954bf22801580ff4aaf7.png

r15.thumb.png.2fdcc13332605a293a74ba7135621260.pngr18.thumb.png.c0934b9e37720b25887b0905ba925802.pngtotalprecip_d02_48.thumb.png.2359d2883719ebfbe059ff526be3683e.png

By midnight Friday the wave is 983mb just off the north east coast resulting in the UK being in a showery and blustery north westerly through Friday and a very cool day. (Exeter making hay with the troughs once again)

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.5aae47051284213fa7a24fdcda913d7b.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.943122767f03a2193c5af1dd1177a4aa.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.3e8f486ddb31bf32e0dcb6ae62362a3e.png

On Saturday the gfs this morning is not a million miles away from the fax chart posted last evening so we are looking at rain creeping into the south west by early evening.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.28810a514a4b15e1f1d67cfce5604ced.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.5cd9afe9ebcc03f2c25fc3168cbb052b.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.93c7376acae3b874475d823cd76384f6.png

Opinions still differ on the precise position and intensity of the low on Sunday but we looking at a wet and very wind period whatever but this the gfs take on things

PPVO89.thumb.gif.872f8938006cdd8f602651364a42b56f.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_19.thumb.png.dec52c1f83244f260d4812941d3c6b7d.png

gfs_mslp_uv10g_uk2_19.thumb.png.02e2fe0eb6acb9724e025d3a9a254112.pnggfs_mslp_uv10g_uk2_20.thumb.png.c4a0337f2d9a6e08c3341c7063260b86.png

And to end with the NH profile at T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.9df993dc2fe8106af8b4a95a2e3b8538.pnggfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.856682916886379ec9028980bd2469d4.png

 

 

 

Edited by knocker
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What a windy week this is turning out to be...  This is the progression of maximum wind gusts across the country according to the ICON for Thursday and Friday (+40 - +60hrs):

image.thumb.gif.2d26fe23bfdcc155c7c664666936aaa0.gif

I keep looking at this thinking 'That can't be right...'   Would be very nasty in the North Sea for a time.

 

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The complications with the low highlighted by this morning's UKMO. 20mb higher that the gfs at 12 on Sunday but deepens it quite rapidly in the next 6 hours

uk12.thumb.png.8897f1e485c2db7cb735d84fc242d7e0.pnguk18.thumb.png.43a2a00f95f0f3fcdeb51366a96a0f42.png

Edited by knocker

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This morning's fax update is not significantly different for 12 Saturday, a tad further east and this morning's ecm has the low very close to last night's fax position by 12 Sunday and takes it across Scotland and then dipping into the North Sea,  Wet and windy but nothing extreme with this scenario

PPVL89.thumb.gif.ca9c1e9da6d7a1656637a501298d59f4.gifT108.thumb.png.c5e06f3c41c3b3f256737b4cc3d146ad.pngT114.thumb.png.d069c6a404178318512c06c885196df8.png

T120.thumb.png.93e0a04f0f3a4d171cde2d2afde8d478.png

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Fifty years ago

For some reason the strong winds across the central belt of Scotland today reminded me of the great storm of 1968 that blew much of Glasgow down but tragically killed twenty people. It did Glasgow a favour in one respect in that the appalling housing situation in the city now had to be tackled., Fortunately today's winds are not going to be that strong.

I was on a ship anchored at the tail of the bank at Greenock and we were lucky as we dragged our anchor and nearly ended up on Gourock high street. Others were not so lucky as a ship sank close by and the crew drowned.

That's the end of this morning's snippet

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Scotland_storm

 

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The 0900 UTC geostationary image

geo.thumb.JPG.750b28c551cbaca2609c278c4992f9cd.JPG

And not in the remit of this thread but after this week some better news required from the EPS. Chilly mornings

1444296342_5day500.thumb.png.8db3e12d50301e06e701a96f2f13b154.png4862539_5day.thumb.png.a22cda694298dff6bfbdd37985ce2558.png

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The cold front showing up quite well on the 1200 sat image with frequent showers into Ireland and still heavy rain in northernScotland

modis.thumb.JPG.ab59b8c4903eb9eac721568310b4c6b7.JPG12.thumb.gif.51c93e1f9d21702899776d58b8a9ddda.gifPPVA89.thumb.gif.293dce7e129b8e79191521ebbaac25c9.gif

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And so the sag continues with the weekend low hitching a ride on the jet with some rapid cyclogenesis into southern Ireland

gfs_uv250_natl_13.thumb.png.cdbf5bdeab966a10d65e0bd157142ee7.pnggfs_uv250_natl_17.thumb.png.408ed98a9cbe31cc8b03f79c3ca1c4d2.pngv96.thumb.png.740e8cab5cf95138446b3f08c7951918.png

 

Edited by knocker
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This evening's fax and ecm are in pretty good agreement at T72 and the ecm then takes the underdeveloped wave across southern England On the face of it this difference appears to be down to how it engages with the jet

PPVK89.thumb.gif.5f4000c62b38bb314b4f5cf1d9dc3ff5.giff72.thumb.png.d3d7ae8189e6fa850cad188cac117ed1.pngf84.thumb.png.b24683318c428c199fc94f0d2f621a99.png

f96.thumb.png.c83cac18076d0b843cb8be5fe2cf116e.pngv.thumb.png.9a30863c6cb7c94087a2775f7c4dc5b1.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Outlook - continuing unsettled for the rest of the week and over the weekend and then a much quieter spell beckons with light winds, albeit quite cool with some air frost and morning fog patches.

The 500mb and surface analysis at midnight and the 0300 surface chart on which the wave that is going to be quite influential today is starting to show.

eur_full_500.thumb.gif.54ba4a25f8d65f5ff5daddd355550e69.gifPPVA89.thumb.gif.1b26771e65cb566ad381c3effde88a43.gifeur_full.thumb.gif.72ffc0847b85b01cd549d72d780dd637.gif

Today the blustery wind and showers over Scotland will continue for a time but the key feature is the front trailing across the Midlands and the south west with the associated band of rain. This will tend to move slightly north through the morning but ast the wave to the west starts to get organized and track NE heavier rain will start effecting Wales by midday and then proceed across northern England during the afternoon. By 1800 the cold front is across Wales and the south west as the wave begins to significantly deepen, Rainfall amounts in Wales and the north west could be very high. Much of Scotland and the south east will miss the rain.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.0490d322d2e1c812e9c2c81279e16585.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.430803ab04cc4025936386f67bf0a726.png

p12.thumb.png.fc1070685d7828b55ffbcfa90b67677b.pngp14.thumb.png.add51e827650b5717a2adf6c9f5bb6ab.pngp18.thumb.png.8b024431f0065c815072f5370b082784.png

During the evening the wave continues to deepen and by midnight is some where near Carlisle 983mb so now strong winds as well as copious amounts of rain becomes an issue. Particularly along the cold front as it tracks south east in the southern quadrant of the low so the strongest winds will be in the south west, southern central and the south east. And of course still plenty of rain along the front and near the low.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.87f9baea8a1301848542e4ad1dea4cd3.gifr21.thumb.png.23aebd38abfa7d1f61b227604e9b7981.pngr00.thumb.png.2bbbbc265766dd3cb07179ab015697a0.png

g19.thumb.png.550ab5f518a0336590bf3b33be094528.pngg21.thumb.png.c695336f668a5f7963d2096efdeafc87.pngg00.thumb.png.8b568360a134c8c430ff535ac0955136.png

Another day and another dollar and by midday Friday the deep low is now near the south west coast of Norway, briefly initiating some strong winds along the north east coast on it's travels, leaving the UK in a blustery and showery north westerly  and quite a cool day.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.e20000dafaf0898808bd2d6b35a83d63.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_8.thumb.png.438434fc9e0e009be630b54dc41ff8e0.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.77825f4acc96c828b41fd54d32f21798.png

gu04.thumb.png.7444d67e55e136025d77ac9585ae924e.pnggu05.thumb.png.b6db470b950bfc0aa8a48a774ff545b4.pnggu06.thumb.png.b518da99c67b4c75ef4917e8f75629e9.png

The north westerly regime continues over night but through Saturday another frontal system approaches from the west and cloud and rain from the associated fronts will effect Wales and the southern half of England by 1800. Another quite cool day

PPVK89.thumb.gif.174d2fe202088508a6a947aeb9452858.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_12.thumb.png.8e451aa693dae6852e4645e90a597a9e.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.6e3db104494bf8d71d39b786dd3e067d.png

The wave gets more organized overnight Saturday and through Sunday and by midday the triple point is over East Anglia.thus continuing wet across most off England and Wales and becoming quite windy for a time particularly in the south east.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.aaecfacf39683457a64b575b5766d142.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.56a5aa1e7d8cd1d51d2632726dfec269.png

By Monday the fronts are away to the east with high pressure now in charge, apart for western Scotland which is effected by and adjacent front, so light winds and chilly mornings with fog patches, as mentioned earlier, replaces the unsettled scenario.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.edc6297499536e46b1d44941a4556421.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.25c050afc003b40bbc073fe64445cd57.png

And so to the NH profile for T120 which makes much better viewing than of late.

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.800558b74e429286f3f8b81ba12729de.pnggfs_t850a_nh_21.thumb.png.3ebbf23a15ae56ba35ad7ef29d1d546b.png

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Fototalprecip_d02_48.thumb.png.5b221e5c1c05fad2a3d0372fa4ee025c.pngrgot a chart

 

Edited by knocker

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