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Short range model discussion - into 2018

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The ecm not dissimilar to the gfs Mon/Tues

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And the 0600 geostationary image

geo.thumb.JPG.940b23826bbdbb39c965389e93d05c5e.JPG

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Obviously not in the short range but worth mentioning that the ecm runs Florence ashore, very much thanks to the HP block, promotes the remnants of Gordon into the Atlantic to merge with the other low and it all ends up with a major trough in mid Atlantic which initiates ridging to the east. All a very long way from being resolved.of course

Edited by knocker
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A quick take on the morning rain from the latest wrf. The high cloud already into Valentia on the midday sounding?

PPVE89.thumb.gif.791aa48ae535a5aa51d7e72ccd1ef657.gif2018090712.03953.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.bbe7e74a690c14d37286e2ee84a738b5.gifgust.thumb.png.e9ae7982a1f16dc54fd36f39e41829a4.png

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The movement of the front Mon/Tues and the introduction of cooler air

gfs_pr6_slp_t850_eur3_17.thumb.png.3a0827fcdac6728cf0b5ffc19cd53c2f.pnggfs_pr6_slp_t850_eur3_21.thumb.png.76a3ab3f1c276228b23fff9f5c67bcdb.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_21.thumb.png.113c4a55ac5f83f5286663397cfeb40f.png

gfs_uv500_natl_21.thumb.png.0be34d4e83654ec070e5aa8e74172733.png

Edited by knocker
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And in the Pacific check the size of super typhoon Mangkhut and the 'nipper' about to go ashore in China

mang.thumb.png.4752ee76453e22414c240858d870509d.png

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The remnants of Gordon about to revitalize and head ESE whilst Helene thinks about joining the party

ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_6.thumb.png.362022c9164f28e9b1888a4b49296003.png

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Little change in the outlook so straight to the NH profile and the surface analysis at midnight.

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.bff25cd0f867b7f5a313c00c9bc1cfed.pnggfs_uv250_nh_1.thumb.png.a95f287ea48802005aef1749cd3d3e95.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.71eaeb8d3d78271727b6cab0f0fb14bb.gif

Most of the western half of the UK is currently cloudy as the frontal system moves in from the west

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and sporadic rain is already into Wales. The main wodge of rain will track ENE through the day clearing into the North Sea by early evening. The boundaries of the rain are still not clear cut but we are looking at a wet day in Wales, the Midlands and parts of the north of England. Sunnier in Scotland and the south east of England where it may even be pleasantly warm.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.9711f5cfc55201764f350d7bbca577b3.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.5c8dd9de9a108f74c833540572e5cd0b.pngoverview_009.thumb.jpg.053ebc1cbfb25df5dd3f176f5766dd54.jpg

overview_012.thumb.jpg.c71ee368cf91ca67d3afec1bc42279f6.jpgoverview_015.thumb.jpg.e01010c65329dc0d4d5415c9c12d4be8.jpgoverview_018.thumb.jpg.4b8ee6a569eb696243a73101829fd6b2.jpg

But by early evening rain from the next system is already into N. Ireland and west Wales and this will track more north east overnight and through Sunday morning so that by 1200 the fronts associated with the main low west of the Hebrides are orientated down the north west and central parts of the UK. Thus a clearance over N. Ireland and Scotland and some showers with cloud and patchy light rain persisting around the Midlands and Wales whilst again warmer in the south east.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.c6cf67e29a36b4947c0950cf99dc1eb1.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.1d752b7f5be1e5303f0c6c428358f100.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.508f40276b944630318b72e9d2dec73c.png

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Through Sunday evening and the early hours of Monday more persistent rain, accompanied by a strengthening wind, will effect Scotland whilst further south the fronts will slowly sink south east. thus dry with broken cloud and quite warm in the sunny intervals.

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.e849e235a61cb04b6a18d34d09035781.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.c9f932134c644671b1d883dc40e2296c.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.5d7108a57c5647aa75fc5af0348dc5a0.png

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By Tuesday the fronts and low pressure area that brought the inclement weather to Scotland have moved away east but a cold front trails across the Midlands and Wales which marks the boundary between the cooler air to the north and warmer to the south where it will be dry whilst showery in north western regions.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.0313f2fd01a43ee36ec040df5ef7b445.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.405aaa35ba97fc953a23de2f8eda9907.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.f697ed20e576921d8fbdafad86088304.png

A not dissimilar story on Wednesday although the front has moved a little further south but with no rain now on it.

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And so to the NH profile at T120 where one of the main features is the strength of the Bermuda high pressure which is keeping Florence on the southerly track.

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.3e70ec2957b8084fc52163e757b33c3a.pnggfs_uv500_nh_21.thumb.png.90295907a7a8266ef0c9c18fbcf8dc22.png

 

 

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This morning's updated fax for Tuesday 00 and the ecm

PPVK89.thumb.gif.4bcd0efcac3cc24e72666a227a25c54f.gif1108622644_at00.thumb.png.ba798cdeb8d029aaf3d220c3c03c2f6b.png2053289481_pt00.thumb.png.db1d297fb1b253b567acc00a66c3ceb5.png

18.thumb.png.34a2f8f66c631fb82edff377fae3ca03.png

 

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After some light intermittent rain earlier dry here now with some interesting medium and upper cloud of Ac and Cs.

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2-7.thumb.png.e4f7a94ce6bd112cd10666dc4d5645c3.png

And the 0900 surface chart. As expected plenty of rain around in Wales and the Midlands

 

09.gif

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The first batch of rain will track into the North Sea by early Evening just as the next lot arrives over N. Ireland and west Wales. The main thrust of this will move north east effecting northern England and Scotland through this evening and overnight although western parts of England will not escape altogether.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.4b3865b663f2ded7537a3f1d659f13b3.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.bbb98111042770c7648046060be7e474.gifoverview_006.thumb.jpg.d7a8d597aeb323cc8f73d2f0272c6493.jpg

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overview_018.thumb.jpg.50d6b04578c26f2de8b9fb2e4f3d6f4e.jpg

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Well illustrated this evening with the gfs. Colder air sinking south behind the front and Florence touching down around South Carolina

gfs_z500_vort_natl_17.thumb.png.e491ac7099e1103e314d2588c6da2d5a.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_21.thumb.png.cfcd7017b1ba95f4a9c99196453106bf.pnggfs_t850a_natl_21.thumb.png.21815f428c37274dbcb3d41a75bc278b.png

 

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A glance at last evening's NOAA, GEFS and EPS medium term 500mb anomalies, to put the short range in some sort of context, does not fill one with optimism that any change is likely with the outlook remaining unsettled any time soon. There are a number of TS floating around in the Pacific and the Atlantic that could throw a spanner in the works but that could of course go either way.

But currently we are looking at a continuation of an active vortex over N. Canada,  with a subsidiary lobe Franz Joseph and associated troughs, the Alaska ridge into the Arctic, and high pressure south east United States all resulting in a strong westerly flow across the Atlantic into the UK portending unsettled weather with probably a N/S bias

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.d3a8c43070a88cdb041a877566763f44.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_43.thumb.png.6d018f0182ca046a6af891bea2bec9f3.png610day_03.thumb.gif.5b70547c815a87d63dfebb32ff283393.gif

Anyway, back to this morning's detail.

This morning the main low is west of the Hebrides and the rain from the associated fronts is pushing north east through central and northern Scotland. Still some bits and bobs of rain around eastern regions of England but tending to be clearer in the south and south east. The main wodge of rain will clear Scotland by early afternoon but with with the low edging east it will be replaced by windy and showery conditions and this may well effect western regions further south. Again warmer and drier inn the south east.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.226f1230a82868e59acc87e8ac2b0702.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.7bedb23eb4e583c6ba6f1ea40f84fd36.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.6c7e90a43f677df9f5efa6fd04f6fb28.png

overview_009.thumb.jpg.b526898abce3f124df657822e99c5116.jpgoverview_012.thumb.jpg.0ba9b9471ad37beab03c6a38783f70f1.jpgoverview_015.thumb.jpg.7b6be07fe2d1bf469c3a20af40db8dca.jpg

overview_018.thumb.jpg.10d2feedeab72a4da5b71fb4a3f3de6f.jpg

But, as can be seen, more concentrated rain will and strong winds will effect Scotland during the evening and through the night as the wrap around occlusion drifts across as the low moves NNE and this rain will be replaced by showers later which may well infiltrated N. Ireland and northern England as well. Elsewhere in England and Wales it should be dry and again warmer (relatively) particularly in the south east.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.34e495aa7f6af14dc3d17c19938daca2.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.ac427c5743597d4127f5a2691d2d5179.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_7.thumb.png.424d818dca7df79e0f1ad96f06bbf28e.png

gfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.ceb9a8e44912779e3bcacb439917508a.png

But the Atlantic is extremely active, epitomized by the very strong jet

gfs_uv250_natl_8.thumb.png.e9fbf03f31184effdc180447e984c2e1.png

and the next frontal system is winging rapidly north east bringing more rain to N. Ireland and Scotland through Monday evening and then further south to northern England and Wales and the Midlands overnight and through Tuesday.and by the afternoon the cold front is across central England and Wales and the rain will have cleared N. Ireland and Scotland to be replaced by brighter and showery conditions. South of the front it is dry and quite warm

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.580981214b8d87f37ee39aeacabd030f.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.fef6f8361a7b77a0ab038cc8b858b1d6.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.7947d89eeef223737ab72fbe71ff3f8d.png

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By Wednesday the weakening front is just about clear of the south coast and the cooler air is now covering all of the UK heralding a very cool day, albeit it quite dry as the ridge pushes north east. Perhaps the odd shower in the North west and still some cloud and patchy rain in the far south..

PPVM89.thumb.gif.98fb71dd6f9f8ca65e205fcea6258dcb.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.2735c8ddea31dd16a8c5658710fccf56.png

Thursday a relatively quiet day and a tad warmer in England and Wales but some cloud and rain creeping into N. Ireland and Scotland thus cooler here.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.71d8a865bd1481950b290fe0a7c85afc.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_20.thumb.png.734e73f18c2b6caea8928f08e3c4bf0f.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.e8542bada78cbe0d79d2d8ee43fa3106.png

And the NH profile at T120 is not a million miles from where we came in

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.e81f28c16676e101f8dfa38994ca1d35.pnggfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.3335e0360783888f98e4c186b0ccf480.png

 

Edited by knocker
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And Ryan Maue has this to say about the gfs this morning

"Can't use GFS for guidance for 00z for intensity #Florence as it does its atrocious hyper-intensification while stationary. Who knows if this track is any good either? Not a fan of the GFS" ...

gfs_ptype_slp_nc_24.thumb.png.839a7e34ddb80ae29255b4a93b5f0295.png

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Just to confirm the introduction of much cooler air on Wednesday as the front sinks south

PPVK89.thumb.gif.74299a5b86e3c570198c8b5b9f288d9c.gifPPVL89.thumb.gif.ae0fc3e93bf8fcee93411c4ee84e2b47.gif

p06.thumb.png.ad0372fb00c9d7a175fb75781b1e591a.pngp18.thumb.png.85645b9d973fcccd43d7427ed065fa05.pnga.thumb.png.17c5531715af29df9996c09137fdda02.png

A lot of cloud around this morning but has cleared from down here recently

geo.thumb.JPG.d606e0475f4283bcda3cf01295ad855a.JPG

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Whilst most places will be dry this evening and overnight frequent showers will continue across western and northern Scotland and quite windy as well, perhaps touching gale force.

g22.thumb.png.bf266fac11b71c92bf450aed796fc994.pngg01.thumb.png.fb46ca3db9faf278ca9fe3367a6f7400.pngp19.thumb.png.5d3cbf0e6217979fb99c9f268754a562.png

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Highly amplified upstream pattern with the Alaska ridge/Canadian vortex with trough and ridging in eastern North America complex leading to very strong westerly jet and offshoots from the vortex swinging into the Atlantic. Does not bode well

gfs_z500a_nh_20.thumb.png.63a75fe8f8238766d3bcbf60a227a8d4.pnggfs_uv250_nh_20.thumb.png.888e25c1fe855ec8952da530b877bd13.png

Edited by knocker
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By the end of the week the ecm has the UK in a cool. showery westerly regime with the showers more likely in the north west and then more generally in the west

a96.thumb.png.3bc14b8b376f37706be858d9e84bc1ca.pnga120.thumb.png.d2475e4293c387e6d80686fc0b695a08.pnga.thumb.png.91bfca122269aeaca4c71b32131a1ccb.png

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No significant change with the outlook from yesterday morning so straight to the NH profile and surface analysis at midnight.

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.9cd8532910311095932369fb8cdec7c8.pnggfs_uv250_nh_1.thumb.png.f24f98bfc37d266334703e1f0ff043b1.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.33fddb8c25479d137c8f5a19ef54d7b8.gif

The day will start dry across England and Wales but showers will persist for a while over northern Scotland in the abating westerly wind but come lunchtime cloud and more persistent rain, accompanied by strengthening winds again, from the next system tracking north east will arrive in N. Ireland and western Scotland and move east and south during the afternoon and evening. Cloud will also infiltrate western parts of England Wales leaving the south east with the sunnier and relatively warmer weather.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.41fc90432b19a35b29ccbb6938d537a2.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.3538ec19289404487c55e4e3a20d868b.png

p12.thumb.png.229a90a25ee636a925ff896ed68152d7.pngp15.thumb.png.812b9b51cc570f99a324bf7aba39974c.pngp18.thumb.png.6f175b0d1e9cba532585c0610c51f639.png

The general batch of rain will move into the North Sea during the evening leaving the cold front and a line of precipitation to move slowly south overnight and through Tuesday, weakening as it goes. Thus clearing in N. Ireland and Scotland but initiating frequent squally showers in the cooler unstable air behind, particularly over the latter. South of the front drier and relatively warm once again.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.ba2958187c7aa4f1fee9afecbf7e39b8.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.0b63cca48c2299c16688312fab827662.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.f5c6dc48daf0eb15a0e0e35750c62cd1.png

t00.thumb.png.9666d13baf150a06817a453b230fc989.pngt04.thumb.png.f9c8fe2eb0f1e54d315b7e56c927af5c.pngt08.thumb.png.1b9dce616cc5252c7aa2bb0df18a97d0.png

t12.thumb.png.f8d5182f8c7b22d47a8dea7bff048c1c.pngt17.thumb.png.5f5362cb7696034729378ee18a81db30.png

The cloud and light patchy rain will continue to effect the south on Wednesday as the front is very slow to clear but eventually the cooler air covers all of the UK whilst blustery showers continue over N. Ireland and Scotland in the fresh westerly wind.

PPVK89.thumb.gif.683cd4e125a48ec8f8a1a0bbdc8dd7be.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_12.thumb.png.b8cbc33dc56643002f3231d664298d60.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.95108a24e3aaf9205b526890d5f33297.png

By Thursday the front is finally well clear to the south and the Azores HP is temporarily pushing north east into the southern half of the UK but with low pressure still to the NW and N and fronts lying across Scotland and trailing west into the Atlantic in the strong westerly upper flow

gfs_z500_vort_natl_16.thumb.png.8f98cab1f9a7245f1a0222b922f0137b.png

showers will persist in the north, and it wont feel particularly warm,whilst Wales and much of England remains dry

PPVM89.thumb.gif.7fd543945c1e7e222097e04d0adb8e57.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.9d5b83e9f2826b1be3380e5680a3d86c.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.108dc8705e07e09d421ace6029b75691.png

The front will drift south during Friday, along with the showers, but the south east should still remain dry

PPVO89.thumb.gif.20fdf8174771c2daeaccb5b6782adc8a.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_20.thumb.png.1dfba10f9e9530d4ac2bb85a8ecaa81c.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.0105929d9d0b1255e8e0da6e3011b0a2.png

And the NH profile at T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.c5c9b16c98927d06f52bd1d205566ba8.pnggfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.d62bf87128230703140cf88d379232d1.png

 

 

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And just out of interest the lower strat. mirrors the above

100_nh_stanom_21.thumb.png.ba22ea129e82b3361b5c8b84cd6c20cc.png

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The MODIS at midday, not entirely unexpected with the rain now into western Scotland and the north west of England

modis.thumb.JPG.b78ed361e9bff1dd3022c5a9c5710ae6.JPGPPVA89.thumb.gif.e4ed343f7dd5791c93b9cea04f07c359.gif

 

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