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Paul

Short range model discussion - into 2018

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The imminent transition to a cooler and generally more unsettled period has been well signposted for days so no need to labour the point here but suffice it just to post last evening’s EPS medium range anomalies. It doesn’t bode well for the weekend but it is the detail within this framework that is posing the questions and that the det runs will eventually answer.

1377370909_500a.thumb.png.09505d47f9f19040d2bcc54b028b8000.png1461093512_500t.thumb.png.eed5a5ed5ef5c209bcb3b222a549955a.png

After a mainly cloudy,warm and humid night ( you get the idea by looking at the Nottingham 00 sounding (Very moist in the lower layers and temp still positive at 600mb)

2018082100.03354.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.e3b1d7490920964435f015d05a2b6fb0.gif

so another day similar to yesterday beckons with cloud hanging around, particularly in the west with mist and drizzle at first, but probably with more breaks than yesterday as the day progresses and where it does it will be quite warm again,

PPVA89.thumb.gif.36142dc85961c8fc4e8f82129fbabef7.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.3fe15511442a6931b67952668b8d0bf2.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.8b91f0797b1ab11d5dad3d08ce651398.png

But as can be seen a deepening wave to west is tracking north east just west of Ireland and by early evening this has brought cloud and rain into N. Ireland and western Scotland. The low continues to track north east as the associated cold front and band of rain moves south east across the country overnight Tuesday through  Wednesday and the passage of this front introduces the cooler air in it's wake. Meanwhile to the south another warm and humid day.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.f448cee6adc7ded42eb832969111e1b4.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.986c289edbcdd2e1fc88ceac9c34e4cd.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.8469a63b6a202ec82eaaf9a67cb1ef45.png

overview_021.thumb.jpg.e5d1059495ed8f0872d890522775df84.jpgoverview_024.thumb.jpg.4e941d25f0f0a3845578c16249b7bb51.jpgoverview_030.thumb.jpg.b1cd4a54b44240e30166cd56225bd4c4.jpg

overview_036.thumb.jpg.728708d8e46fc7148eea00c28ccc7aeb.jpgoverview_042.thumb.jpg.f3539c925eda09df6defa0126058c979.jpg

So by Thursday the cold upper trough has duly arrived

gfs_z500a_eur_12.thumb.png.10d16429b9195456d476396ef4a86864.pnggfs_t850a_eur_12.thumb.png.ea7f9516a223e1b91f585ef6ea0f96c4.png

and the cold front is clear of the south coast leaving the UK in a fresh, unstable, north westerly which portends frequent quite heavy showers and sunny intervals with the showery activity more concentrated in the north with possible longer outbreaks where they merge.

PPVK89.thumb.gif.1a84e15cef445781c77a1a654bf7d160.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_12.thumb.png.3caa34e80e496eb8c8bd0c05d3f4d518.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.9cb57a8dc2bf05b826db56b0ac1ea720.png

A not dissimilar day on Friday but a distinctly cool day with temps below average

PPVM89.thumb.gif.4303f6f186c5a41bcd07da73d11ef4a8.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.ce3714b8938204a9b117597f7826801d.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.1910567187e8ef95ee1a0bae0bf44dc8.png

Saturday becomes a little more complicated and the detail a little less obvious at this stage.Still the sunshine and showers scenario and temps below average but a little wave has tracked east, despite a burgeoning high pressure

gfs_uv250_natl_19.thumb.png.802a4ef2e96df2d0504e6211aed97ef8.png

and is likely to bring rain to the south west Saturday morning

PPVO89.thumb.gif.c2cb76de672886eec5f30649ad9a78fc.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_20.thumb.png.c5e9e727013b7d11710f4b278e8c3911.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.d7740aae4ca3c380aff343a775392220.png

And the NH profile at T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.556dd8f6d2554b41602c01b7e9d4d598.pnggfs_t850a_nh_21.thumb.png.1c46d3aeaef85d4587ce4889943ad633.png

 

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To illustrate the different airmass by Friday one need only at a forecast sounding for the Nottingham area with last night's. Stark

sounding.thumb.jpg.5bd8cbffc1349c85b291de13f3e3a12e.jpg

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The updated fax and ecm for 1200 Friday.

PPVL89.thumb.gif.1d3528fcc6a0e783fc4b9b46420d93af.gif999311797_af12.thumb.png.c6555d9658b043259904e9830552546e.png

And the ecm follow up. Quite a wet Saturday for England and Wales if that correct but still a fair bit of uncertainty about this.

401284674_asa00.thumb.png.c3e028358596cb3534ec9ab7698006d4.png587470955_asa12.thumb.png.fb119de3b84e619e952b73d7a2499d06.png

Very messy 0600 sat image

geo.thumb.JPG.219373f0a589ebea72f5784c50dc9e30.JPG

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5 minutes ago, knocker said:

ecm_t850a_5d_eur_8.thumb.png.bb5acdc1fc2fa090ad1e84aef0e8c529.png

Looks like a very slow cooling down process by weekend over our part of Europe ( Austria ) from the this chart posted by Knocker. Anyway plenty of warmth and sunshine to be had for most of the week anyway.

C

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The changing thickness a la the 0600 gfs

Now

gfs_thickness_eur_2.thumb.png.aafcc58f3a26384917855efb81d40be1.png

Saturday

gfs_thickness_eur_17.thumb.png.f07b43d31018f9c14d45c58575368605.png

Sunday

gfs_thickness_eur_22.png

Edited by knocker

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The 1200 UTC geostationary image and 1100 surface chart

geo.thumb.JPG.4cb3a2c3725e19efb33c8c8a7c4fc181.JPG11.thumb.gif.0026c6c2a524024356e7323a2539696a.gif

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This evening's fax for 1200 Friday and em for same time

PPVK89.thumb.gif.a7fcabd9f6b7201e01c94eb398e5d73f.gif1871406354_af12.thumb.png.fe68f38199d3c2199fa9fb26ca1fae23.png

Over the next 12 hours the little wave feature to the west appears to phases with the trough/front lying across N. Ireland and Scotland

Which tracks south east bringing a wet early Saturday mainly to the west and south of the UK and a very cool day, Then some brief ridging before the next front approached on Sunday.

115389943_as00.thumb.png.25e4e13266cebe1df54f29c0c10ce1ac.pngmin.thumb.png.9ee1960e6ed7c9bdf9a62c70a42deb26.png716818632_tempa.thumb.png.fe5230be59fb27979a507d9cf1b534cc.png

518155752_fronts.thumb.png.b4ae1fb75b79b4f291c33a54ff71b992.png

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Today sees the start of the transition to a period of much cooler and unsettled weather, with the upper trough to the NW/N becoming the dominant feature.With this in mind  the immediate priority is to firm up the details of the weather over the coming Bank Holiday weekend. The current NH profile

gfs_z500a_nh_2.thumb.png.39eb3c15cecc4878464c4aaa6abad4d2.pnggfs_t850a_nh_2.thumb.png.b0677dc2af739ba5b96ff1c9d694c862.png

As can be seen on the 0300 WV image it is currently pretty cloudy over much of the UK

2018_8_22_300_MSG4_26_S1_grid.thumb.jpeg.6cd7b2033d9d0c71e739a4db9bc5d972.jpeg

with the cold front and band of rain over southern Scotland. This will track slowly south east during the day leaving cooler and showery conditions in it's wake. But further south of the front which is still in th warm and humid air, where the cloud breaks it will get very warm. All resulting in quite a latitudinal contrast across the regions.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.704492443beb9ae0d4af7b1b5c386bac.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.45fc290291b5546d70a66e02c722a469.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.a697346042106be2322f68f303742466.png

overview_009.thumb.jpg.e6792398388a36dda8f75c8f77e0a266.jpgoverview_012.thumb.jpg.a7355b2aef136b5bceb44855c6bc2756.jpgoverview_015.thumb.jpg.38f8ca6fcd8452f35e7c8fef2968bb03.jpg

overview_018.thumb.jpg.99fc52d700aa5efca89635d6e5b905fe.jpgoverview_021.thumb.jpg.58308378289fe96e5fbc2130b081ef2e.jpg

Overnight and through Thursday morning the front and rain continue their travels, the latter pepping up for a time, before clearing around lunchtime leaving the whole of the UK in an unstable and cooler north westerly. Thus some heavy squally showers , concentrated more in the west and north where another system involving a wrap around occlusion has arrived on the scene.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.f58e8c53581a091bd9b82d8ba421252a.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.242a5e2b21b6e7cf5dbdcc8058bff1ab.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.6f8f62aa38b0f0d6f0cdef7c5ffda6ac.png

overview_027.thumb.jpg.8b04e1eddf14698ad2fa98f7cab2b4cd.jpgoverview_030.thumb.jpg.43e4d70336d855b951c58bd42f6bc662.jpgoverview_033.thumb.jpg.f735e84f248abb49ca5016d6c05eabf4.jpg

The occlusion also sinks south east through Thursday evening introducing even cooler air so that Friday becomes quite an unpleasant day with a fresh north westerly and frequent showers, and possibly some light frontal rain effecting the south west during the evening, with temps below average.

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.1ed85a05c573c420b9cc6fbb16677580.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.4d1fcb137a1b732d8d4a5ad8e22aa019.gif

gfs_thickness_eur_12.thumb.png.e70a654472603648f1c853a733a232b2.pnggfs_ptype_slp_uk2_12.thumb.png.07bb518fd93d02f3f257a5ada78e87a0.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.f4ec2914f7dce5cddbf10bdacd9679ce.png

Lighter winds on saturday as a transient ridge passe through but still some showers around and another cool day. But out to the west the next quite complex system is getting organized and is moving east.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.de77c2968af2508edce2344a844fe515.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.75d1be707a5d39199888eeaac3a95c03.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.adc7dc468d40caa6f990d45b832b5a37.png

And by 1200 Sunday the low is 992mb south of Iceland and the array of fronts has brought cloud and rain to western parts of the UK which will move east, albeit becoming quite patchy. Another quite cool day with temps possibly a little below average.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.728224762dd5809aecfcf86c7cd94708.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_20.thumb.png.abdbf0fe589a539b7575c0d7c80b6413.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.fdc6abb4d5ae0f204ad67c8bf15cc078.png

And the NH profile at T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.e1ce74a4f4b1f98979ede8c943268ee3.pnggfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.8b20a4987a4dde0153d1489b90be54e0.png

Edited by knocker

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The updated fax charts have an occlusion running south in the circulation in the early hours of Saturday, weakening as it hits the transient ridge, but not before introducing even cooler air to N. Scotland. The ecm has Saturday as a showery day with temps below average before another weakening front brings some patchy rain to western regions Sunday evening.

PPVK89.thumb.gif.e1989da818f0271dddbb6a145ce0a37c.gifPPVL89.thumb.gif.d654bf29cd2941741b52886bbdd53249.gif1248708812_tempa.thumb.png.53fbd35eb36bf7fc3fe20f2ea2754f8d.png

497954811_as00.thumb.png.14c096810005d10836322aed5277af7e.png2140110916_as18.thumb.png.1ce1d927787737cca09e6270d614bf6f.pngfront.thumb.png.6755bf204e1bb14d17a9cc29531aaba4.png

The 0600 sat. image

geo.thumb.JPG.001459a97400eea69c62b52c454f6d27.JPG

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The high res. MODIS at 1130 UTC and 1100 surface chart

modis.thumb.JPG.96c24da5b45f108d0c174d29f41d9c6a.JPG11.thumb.gif.f923c999e5409e016a90252a7b022e2c.gifPPVA89.thumb.gif.5df59ccf648453178f0591ed4c0de4c1.gif

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Through this evening and overnight the cold front continues to track south east with the rain belt pepping up somewhat in the early hours whilst further north the occlusion will bring further rain to N. Ireland and western Scotland by midnight which will also track south east but fragmenting a little in the morning. Still quite a warm and humid night in the south east but markedly cooler elsewhere.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.504bc34353e812070e2e18e6ff11481d.gifgfs_t2min_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.746bbce8613d1ab53958526055adae41.png

overview_012.thumb.jpg.398ee5da39506609259d8094620d96a4.jpgoverview_015.thumb.jpg.3b5ab69cbdebeae48c2133e3b2ffffcf.jpgoverview_018.thumb.jpg.2f09662d9a3ba0b4859e84c46e8d50b3.jpg

overview_021.thumb.jpg.29acf3584598f0c622c17dcfb43e72ba.jpg

1500 UTC

geo.thumb.JPG.e97bca16a84e129c7022ffb5d2099e06.JPG

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The gfs certainly has some fun and games developing the trough in the Denmark Straits this evening

gfs_z500_vort_natl_21.thumb.png.c0c11f602b6e0e6494aa0bc0738bd1d2.png

 

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Both this evening's fax and the ecm has the UK in a light north westerly at 12 Saturday with some showers around. Twenty four hours later fronts from the system to the west have brought cloud and rain into western areas The front is quite active and develops a couple of little waves as it traverses the UK rather concentrating any rain over N. Ireland, Scotland and the south west of England in the early hours of Monday.

PPVK89.thumb.gif.c74fd64015960b436ce99b780fdd3158.gif

1022899483_surfs12.thumb.png.1a7d8694b424334d56bf114c945a3e02.png1704354724_surfsu12.thumb.png.870330af72487debedcd4c0bc27a8bcd.png1352025089_surfm12.thumb.png.a97d5b92ec9b635da1af79c2d39c8abd.png

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Quite a lot going on over the next few days in the transition to quite a fluid pattern and as ever the devil will be in the detail. Currently the NH profile is dominated by the upper trough to the north west as much colder air is set to flow over the UK heralding a spot of Autumnal weather.

gfs_z500a_nh_2.thumb.png.85c1b354011151b1d589b550a2fe15cc.pnggfs_t850a_nh_2.thumb.png.76879a50a014e0a018b3951c950518ff.png

It has been a cloudy night in many areas

2018_8_23_300_MSG4_25_S1_grid.thumb.jpeg.6cadb3f4324b7915a9a52c73928ad14d.jpeg

But this should clear somewhat over England and Wales giving sunny intervals in the cooler air as the cold front slowly clears the south east. But the occlusion come cold front and associated band of rain,currently over N. Ireland Scotland, will also track south east leaving even cooler and very unstable air in it's wake heralding frequent heavy showers of rain, hail and possibly thunder.with a fresh north westerly wind.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.08d694fa572c09a3d1899a0c222f61da.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.4ff000eba6e871953fea4498d5b4b1bf.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.489a35360daa5a07a6ede800eba2fc8e.png

overview_009.thumb.jpg.b75dba753b46810cf26f918ca14754b4.jpgoverview_015.thumb.jpg.3bb96bf41d320e855a2ada8ec94c17aa.jpgoverview_018.thumb.jpg.be4fa2a838dffe7a97505965bcdbeb5b.jpg

Over Thursday evening the second cold front clears the south east leaving all of the UK in a brisk and very cool north westerly on Friday and frequent heavy and squally showers that could occur virtually anywhere but will be concentrated to the north and west. Obviously these will be intersperse with sunny intervals but temps will be below average, quite significantly so in places.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.196837b380c045039afbc011f2ac0e14.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.4b6a50c4782a9cb2218beb2e15021178.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.29b06aaab94dac3677e338d3049230b6.png

overview_033.thumb.jpg.f5345f79c04735116fa4d6f68c0ba61c.jpgoverview_036.thumb.jpg.1d4f75059e58950f891a9d773449de96.jpgoverview_039.thumb.jpg.fbbf2827ddab5f4ad8c049d7c973480e.jpg

Overnight and through Saturday the upper trough moves north east

gfs_z500a_eur_12.thumb.png.8b2b72f2e68a60f8e72957e3f873ae7f.png

Allowing high pressure to ridge in from the south west and thus lighter winds on Saturday and far fewer showers and more prolonged sunny intervals,albeit another quite cool day with temps still below average

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.441bb602a5bf29e88b00dcfcb12459b3.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.045e4733d0a781320efe8953b7a095d4.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.a36cf9c5f91c0faebc3ee923844218dd.png

But overnight Saturday the next shallow low has tracked east to be north west of Ireland and the associated fronts bring cloud and rain to western regions Sunday morning which will spread east during the day

PPVM89.thumb.gif.4ac7824486b36543f6394a9614762cf3.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.1d01214ff239f5b3ce846e368af37cb7.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.7020055c74eab41ef866cf01b0d9bf3c.png

By Monday the rain will have cleared away to the east, except for northern Scotland, leaving a legacy of a few showers on a day with around average temps

PPVO89.thumb.gif.047384486cad144c06969f62be52573b.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.e406b809fef751e3c8053e8751b7e913.png

And with the NH profile at T120 the fluidity mentioned earlier becomes apparent as the next upper trough swings in from northern Canada and is south of Iceland

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.a5761fa25f5808bbe28ad5ece721582d.pnggfs_t850a_nh_21.thumb.png.a0c946d3e9c9fbceed3073f929d87ad3.png

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It's worth a glance at a sample sounding for Friday illustrating the very cold (relatively) unstable air with the tropopause down to 300mb if only for the contrast to the summer up to now

sounding.thumb.jpg.e8dd93fbb6c7d48a21c5ad96cc75cea1.jpg

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This morning's fax charts for Sunday and the ecm on the rain

PPVK89.thumb.gif.f40913f09614346a3c1580dfca8bf48d.gifPPVL89.thumb.gif.48e748bb708d0a267e22077fb4ca4fec.gif

138524040_psu12.thumb.png.cad1314b0b6e4a9c866a66398fdd2c3f.png1972691521_psu18.thumb.png.028b1ce3319b424c1e7d82310a1fb9ed.png

The 0600 sat image

geo.thumb.JPG.749f1ade1d3bfb0153c17d454a14bfc9.JPG

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A quick muse off piste this morning and a glance at the EPS 10-15 anomaly. This hasn't changed a great deal over the last five days Still quite a strong westerly upper flow, with the vortex/lobe over the Arctic and associated trough down over Greenland, but weakening and diverging somewhat in the eastern atlantic courtesy of some ridging in NE Europe and a trough to the South east.Thus with the anomalies positive over NW Europe this would suggest tending towards a N/S split with some ridging over the south with perhaps temps nudging above average.

1781455172_500a.thumb.png.42e97e9e11a86a471deeb3e906b75eb4.png

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Interesting high res. MODIS at midday. Not a bad morning here but medium layer cloud has encroached over the last couple of hours.

modis.thumb.JPG.527df4ba6bc3e5f2c4251fe6a397f5c9.JPGPPVA89.thumb.gif.9a2f570912879b97665309df60060d19.gif

 

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Later tomorrow a concentration of hefty showers in the south west perhaps?

302691969_showers16.thumb.png.5ad1e577204e931807d12e5314a6edf7.pnggfs_z500_vort_eur_6.thumb.png.0e74f9c9cc0efbdb2e788c4634f475ac.png

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Guess who is going on a day trip to the South Devon Railway on Sunday? 😲

PPVK89.thumb.gif.d23c9334129bcb28a005913a5df62209.gifoverview_069.thumb.jpg.ad10fb4a7fb99c7a393f8587c805c319.jpgoverview_072.thumb.jpg.cc9cbc356804e9f36d386b66f821104b.jpg

overview_078.thumb.jpg.f3d71764bbd66de0db7f55a809da5e3b.jpg

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The ecm has the rain clearing east Sunday evening and then a transient ridge on Monday with perhaps some showers in the north west

248699464_pm00.thumb.png.5fc16091674b9e32c3a13ef59819492c.png873065372_pm12.thumb.png.9d32f0ce147972c61d51f504882cc24c.png

And then the next Atlantic trough activates the low pressure west of Iberia

500.thumb.png.ed0c3e7b16ff98382ab381f955c72a51.png

 

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