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Short range model discussion - into 2018

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Some nice mountain waves over Scotland north of the front on the 1330 UTC MODIS with Ernesto west of Ireland

ch38.thumb.jpg.d0d70c244e1ef16296acbb7c9d624cfc.jpgPPVA89.thumb.gif.c6cb46a76b8c8f6a2ebc38fb2770faa2.gif

Edited by knocker
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Interesting to note how the 'warm pool' of less moist air in the southern quadrant of Ernesto 'mixes out'

850temp_009.thumb.jpg.ad7dec9a590a586158e6729fc965052a.jpg850temp_012.thumb.jpg.083baee742aedd2514a4c5c4b4815fd2.jpg850temp_015.thumb.jpg.0af295723a5642ad921cefc1bb5037e4.jpg

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The two jets combine north of the amplifying Bermuda high and then swing south east across the UK

gfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.a9bb976de11688edca4ea1c8de1d4a1e.png

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The ecm with ref. to the earlier post

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The front and wave 12 Tuesday and the ecm 24 hours later as the front weakens

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And the Bermuda high starting to amplify in the west

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The main feature of last night’s anomalies, NOAA, GEFS and the EPS is the persistence of low pressure over the Arctic with the main lobe(s) in the N. Canada north west Greenland area.  This manifests itself in the short range with the sub tropical high also pushing north in the Atlantic (some disagreement on how much but using the EPS as the example) and thus the upper flow will veer north westerly in the eastern Atlantic portending changeable weather and generally cooler than of late over the UK

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Back to the here and now and the main feature is the decaying TS Ernesto. Currently over N. Ireland with the main rain band over central and southern Scotland and northern England. And just with ref to a post last night, the Camborne 00 sounding was only on the edge of the warm upper pool but did have an 850mb temp of 15.5C

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Ernesto and the rain belt will clear into the North Sea this morning leaving much of the UK in cloudy humid conditions with maybe the odd spot of drizzle with waving fronts straddled across the country and running south west. Sunnier in N. Ireland and N. Scotland and quite warm in southern areas where the sun pokes out.

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Over the next two or three days most of the UK remains under the influence of the warm and humid south westerly airstream

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So Monday is another cloudy day in general, with the waving fronts still in attendance, but where the cloud breaks it will feel quite warm. Still the odd chance of some light drizzle or the odd shower, mainly in the west.

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Much the same picture for much of the UK overnight Monday and through Tuesday but the scene is changing slowly as the next wave and associated fronts tracking north east bring rain, mainly to Scotland but  also further south to N. Ireland and northern England during the day. Again quite warm further south

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The wave quickly clears away to the north east leaving the cold front to track slowly south east over Wednesday and Thursday accompanied by a band of rain and leaving cooler air in it's wake so that by the end of Thursday this encompasses all of the UK. And by Thursday more general rain and strengthening winds will effect northern areas as a front associated with a new low over Iceland approach from the north west

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And so to the NH profile at T120 where we more or less started

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Edited by knocker
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The 0500 UTC surface chart with some heavy rain over southern Scotland and typical weather down here of low St and drizzle

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Rather an odd situation today for forecast maximums. 

AROME 22 (was 26 last night) 

GFS 24

ARPEGE 25

ECM 27

and the Met Office were 22C earlier this morning, but have now updated to 25C

Strange differences for T12! 

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13 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Rather an odd situation today for forecast maximums. 

AROME 22 (was 26 last night) 

GFS 24

ARPEGE 25

ECM 27

and the Met Office were 22C earlier this morning, but have now updated to 25C

Strange differences for T12! 

I imagine down to the uncertainty in predicting the cloud cover

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This morning's fax charts Tues/Weds and ecm

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.3ee945e54e52882774f7c1599a7e1e03.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.97f98d78f34af87647d83c176f5d3f99.gifPPVL89.thumb.gif.ff457688a68605451d883ecfea79088e.gif

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And

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Cricky, never seen so many fronts like this one on a chart. All heading for Blighty it seems. Crap August again for our Northern folk.  Super nice spell of weather over here and temps just bearable.

C

PPVI89.gif.c37d63df3418cca7672043ac4fea25cf.gif

Edited by carinthian

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You could say the 0900 sat image is a very messy picture

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54 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Cricky, never seen so many fronts like this one on a chart. All heading for Blighty it seems. Crap August again for our Northern folk.  Super nice spell of weather over here and temps just bearable.

C

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Actually just north of the rain so dry just now and can see  clear blue skies/shower cloud to the north across the Firth looking very autumnal as cooler air tries to come south.

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6 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

Actually just north of the rain so dry just now and can see  clear blue skies/shower cloud to the north across the Firth looking very autumnal as cooler air tries to come south.

Hi Northern Light, I have followed your great reports from the North and your take on nature on the farm. Think you may well have had it quite good summer, locally in your part of the Kingdom, certainly further west has seen a worsening of the summer weather as it progressed.

C

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4 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Hi Northern Light, I have followed your great reports from the North and your take on nature on the farm. Think you may well have had it quite good summer, locally in your part of the Kingdom, certainly further west has seen a worsening of the summer weather as it progressed.

C

Yes exceptional summer, harvest done ,grain all away,a whole month ahead of normal but no grass . Last similar year was 1976

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6 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

Yes exceptional summer, harvest done ,grain all away,a whole month ahead of normal but no grass . Last similar year was 1976

Glad to hear @Northernlights,1976 takes me back, worked at Gatwick that summer, very hot. Also the year I got married and it poured down.  Thought you might like this picture of a mighty fine beast on the local nearby pastures. Plenty of grass this summer after a wet start but getting dry now in the baking sunshine over the past few weeks

IMG_2882.jpg

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The 1240 UTC MODIS and 1300 surface chart. The higher temps around the clearer patch around Bristol

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Typical Camborne 12 sounding in this westerly airstream, Solid moisture up to 6,000 ft thus the Sc, St and mist all day until recently when it broke revealing a fair bit of Ci. It will probably roll in again this evening but I'm hoping for a quicker clearance tomorrow as I'm going on a trip down the Exeter canal 😲

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The bare bones of the change at the end of the week. The subtropical jet skirting around the trough in the SE United States and then joining the PJ around the amplifying Bermuda high before tracking SE as the upper trough descends on the UK

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9 hours ago, carinthian said:

Cricky, never seen so many fronts like this one on a chart. All heading for Blighty it seems. Crap August again for our Northern folk.  Super nice spell of weather over here and temps just bearable.

C

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Reached 30c in the valley. Lovely end to the day in the mountains, currently 19c at 20.00 hrs local ( 1670m asl ) Forecast for more of the same this week.

arpegeeur-9-72.png

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12 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Rather an odd situation today for forecast maximums. 

AROME 22 (was 26 last night) 

GFS 24

ARPEGE 25

ECM 27

and the Met Office were 22C earlier this morning, but have now updated to 25C

Strange differences for T12! 

Well Heathrow got to 27.5C and a number of places close to 80F, so hats off to the ECM!

In Southampton this afternoon, it brought back memories of... two weeks ago ;)

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Essentially this week is a week of two halves as towards the end of the week the surging sub tropical high veers the upper flow, including the jet, north westerly in the eastern Atlantic which drops a cold trough over the UK replacing the warmer and humid air that had prevailed in many areas of late. As noted by last evening’s EPS

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So today sees much of the UK in the humid and warm air, with Just N. Scotland escaping, resulting in a fairly cloudy day for many, particularly in western areas where St and mist may be an issue, but the cloud may tend to break up during the day and where it does it could again get quite warm. Possibly some light showers sneaking into western areas during the afternoon that will fizzle out by evening.

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Overnight and through Tuesday much the same picture for England and Wales but the next wave and associated fronts tracks north east during the day bringing rain and windy conditions to N. Ireland and western Scotland by the afternoon. Again temp rather dependent on cloud cover.

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Overnight Tuesday and through Wednesday the low continues to deepen and track NNE whilst the cold front and band of rain moves slowly south east across the country leaving much cooler conditions in it's wake. South of the front, particularly in the south east, another quite warm day.

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By Thursday the upper air analysis illustrates pretty well the opening comments with the trough sinking down over the UK

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On the surface the cold front has cleared to the south leaving the UK in a cool, unstable and fresh north westerly airstream resulting in sunshine and frequent showers and with temps appreciable lower than of late and below average.

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A very similar story on Friday in what is essentially quite a chilly day, especially relative to this summer.

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And the not unexpected NH profile at T120

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The 0400 UTC surface chart. Currently St, drizzle and mist here

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