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Short range model discussion - into 2018

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59 minutes ago, knocker said:

The low 1200 Saturday according to this evening's fax and ecm and then the ecm continuation as it quickly loses it's identity over the next 48hours. To the west a few waves forming along the airmass boundary

Hi Knocker, how much impact do you think these fronts/waves may have on the SW?

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17 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Hi Knocker, how much impact do you think these fronts/waves may have on the SW?

Without being definitive Andy, not that much. Most of the rain on Sunday will be further north according to the ecm and then fronts sinking south east against the ridge tend to fizzle out when they hit the subsiding air like next Weds, which of course is a long way off.

1577388683_it96p.thumb.png.dbb06455b1c460dd19c18b33da75378e.png1616769967_t162p.thumb.png.aad845a5662ac602e5997cb6bb474667.pngtotal.thumb.png.68b850c983ea332fc7a3f78b6331a749.png

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The outlook still changeable but although the dying days of TS Ernesto are fairly mundane, it’s travels across the Atlantic have pushed the jet a tad north and initiated an influx of warmer and more humid air over the UK, particularly the southern half, within the short range period.

45926585_5002-7.thumb.png.ee5809d7a4e672b6b2533644b317055b.png

Currently the upper trough is to the north west of the UK is dominating the weather and the fronts associated with this are tracking south east across England and Wales. The 0300 sat. image illustrates this well.

eur_full_500.thumb.gif.05f791446213baa4f94b4dc86e8b7eff.gif2018_8_16_300_MSG4_26_S1_grid.thumb.jpeg.d0d567695074fb74cf71950362908425.jpeg

The rain belt, quite persistent and moderate for a while, will finally clear the south east by early evening, Behind the fronts cooler and unstable air producing a rash of showers, particularly in the north west and west, and longer periods of rain where they coalesce. The midnight fax is a thing of beauty but just take it the fronts merge.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.3ae7601d91506303e24bb0e4643305e0.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.5c056c2c518503c8d1cd88155dfc1f08.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.b19105568cd3ef9522135e1d656f17ac.png

overview_009.thumb.jpg.6c23699d5830d88dfb9b6ae0cbfdac9e.jpgoverview_012.thumb.jpg.4f217c5704c267a6de92adad49622bac.jpgoverview_015.thumb.jpg.6c1da37225e3899adcefc6d8e2d4bd27.jpg

The showers will tend to die out overnight apart from some lingering in the north west, so a clear night but cloud and rain from the warm front associated with a new low south of Iceland will impact N. Ireland by the morning and spread to most northern areas during the day. Further south drier but tending cloudy and humid

PPVG89.thumb.gif.4dd98236a71bf1186e8897026359c9ab.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.8cb361b046b2f43b21a45fb6e8bdb723.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.77c2cf18faa2a378518e198e25a75daf.png

overview_033.thumb.jpg.4d1293594ddaf51abc10d196019b52bc.jpgoverview_036.thumb.jpg.22f89407b0e2bcd4dbd05af34a2d42bb.jpgoverview_039.thumb.jpg.2fb075a2fdd5420f1d1514d3d94f7844.jpg

Over Friday night and through Saturday quite a complex picture emerges as the Iceland low tracks north east and the fronts south east across the UK whilst at the same time the waving cold front trails across the Atlantic where Ernesto has joined in the mix. An overview

gfs_t850a_natl_11.thumb.png.0536d179029f1fae100777fa76c2ec28.pnggfs_uv250_natl_11.thumb.png.06acc0c1d15e98e1ea8e90a891934fbd.png

Thus much of England and Wales will be in the warm sector on Saturday thus cloudy, humid but warm where the sun breaks through but cooler with patchy rain in the north.

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.3a820327d87c7c94cb82b3e73740f087.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.b1c69a1fb7016d58659ccff191db7f3c.gif

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_12.thumb.png.3869dc611aa61ffadf51b3e27435b088.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.4db8f8bbbba8eea18858eebfad34b54b.png

By Sunday the waving front(s) and a fading Ernesto have arrived on the scene giving quite complex regional scenario as can be seen by a quick glance at the charts. Essentially cooler with rain in the north, cloudy and mild in the south

PPVM89.thumb.gif.d04f10bef8fc6dc709c8dc0087f3b85a.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_15.thumb.png.7f111afef0ecc3b0f8b660efaa9296d0.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.76fcc1b5f61f8f42185b6b7d4e5f0e05.png

With Ernesto out of the way into the North Sea Sunday portends to be a warm and humid day in most areas with the noteable exception of northern Scotland.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.533dc681a104a7b6b0aa8f2aa4286e68.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_20.thumb.png.572c446bd6620c21500c57ccc6a723ef.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.8d0f983719ad2c193f6662f27c24b747.png

And the NH profile at T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.d65e530af453e368477b7d7f71c0c3ab.pnggfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.cdb0a4786b8d24c6e36a7398d563e9e2.png

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The 0400 UTC surface chart. A lot of moderate rain around in Wales and the west Midlands. And here at the moment

04.thumb.gif.8bb0c5d4f57045182d20d0c033b4a1cf.gif

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This morning's updated fax charts for the weekend and the ecm rainfall

PPVI89.thumb.gif.6471cfafd2ee077fbfca7ae2c116429b.gifPPVJ89.thumb.gif.bc081afd5cc8f87d739b061869a6ed9b.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.d19c87a18352d36b46172613e21a6f51.gif

PPVL89.thumb.gif.0c36c8dc86f387fba8d0c6bc6e6211e2.gif1931062398_ps06.thumb.png.17f6121508d4c8a971f6f73fa3ff1723.png574094742_ps12.thumb.png.1005b5ff5f2e89d61bb7923e695235a5.png

Nice 0600 sat image courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving Station

geo.thumb.JPG.4029061e0d1c8df57675275725e2f060.JPG

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Apropos nothing at all really but this morning's GEFS 5-10 500mb anomaly is pretty well represented at 100mb

100.thumb.gif.8ec7daa04aeb3d434f2007394528d04e.gif

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The upper trough has swung east at 12 and so low temps in the London area at 1400

2018081612_eur_full_500.thumb.gif.eda3bb2fe6690d02849417aeec820264.gif14.thumb.gif.e8963acf07de787d3059d15d6fa409a7.gif

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The front will clear the south east this evening leaving a mostly clear night for all but showers will persist across western Scotland at first before cloud and rain from the next frontal system will effect N.Ireland in the early hours on their way east.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.259295d15032c182dd2154402c5b78a3.gifoverview_015.thumb.jpg.7858208d9d15225b1c945b7835a9d416.jpgoverview_018.thumb.jpg.afd2bccb23806cbd1bab8cae7ec1244c.jpg

overview_021.thumb.jpg.e24fc558b06fa668ba47d7990abf6dae.jpgoverview_024.thumb.jpg.0ac621646374ccf5a3b75451596c1563.jpg

Ernesto

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=vis-swir

Edited by knocker

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This evening's fax for Sunday and ecm

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.f79284ad821aea6f351569c324c92835.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.d2d3b0d540abb7c9fb15ba54919e4ccb.gif

1084318295_ps12.thumb.png.2d040aff110ede0d75d44924d65204fb.png141242670_ps18.thumb.png.d8628efa86f3dc95ed1ba7522f5f9e52.png

And new low and active front approaching from the west at T120

front.thumb.png.e319b443671386d72681ec548156511f.png

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A quick look at the GEFS and EPS mean 500mb anomalies last evening would indicate no significant changes to the outlook in the short term,  Low pressure over the Arctic with twin centers N. Canada and Franz Josepth and no significant amplification of the sub tropical high pressure results in a pretty flat upper westerly over the Atlantic portending the UK weather to be changeable but tending very much to a N/S split. Last evening’s ecm det. run gives a flavour of this. (this could subtly alter if later some ridging occurs in the western Atlantic)

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_8.thumb.png.a9bada93881bc06277ad4043b8440780.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_29.thumb.png.88be7d379d5a48cfe7352f3db647fdbb.pngecm_t850a_5d_natl_8.thumb.png.bd1e93c9c2fae7eaf643d65e93978514.png

One way or tother the upper trough centred east of Iceland will influence the UK weather over the next three or four days,

eur_full_500.thumb.gif.3bbcc92944ee7ee6acad6a6140f016dd.gif

After a clear night in most places the cloud and rain from fronts associated with quite a deep low south of Iceland will effect N. Ireland very early and spread through central, and southern Scotland and northern England during the day all of which will be accompanied by strengthening winds,. Further south a pretty fine day

PPVA89.thumb.gif.40630a7aa7e161a85aa97b01ea0bac6b.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.69904d829541fd0ee4fecbc40c87fa2d.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.d74078b4f2cbbf4758f4c2093df39320.png

overview_009.thumb.jpg.a89ae04ab0b176eaefa3b1894c6822bf.jpgoverview_012.thumb.jpg.cae7c7007497ff5b0ccdf3d80f38c089.jpgoverview_015.thumb.jpg.703e4df248016daca5914aea7548350a.jpg

overview_018.thumb.jpg.979be019211e9e170829de2dad9acf8e.jpg

Very much the same scenario overnight and through Saturday, Clearer and windy in northern Scotland but tending cloudy in the rest of Scotland and northern England with the cold front trailing across the country out into the Atlantic where TS Ernesto has merged with another low. The rest of England and Wales are in a weakish warm sector where it will feel quite warm where the sun breaks through with possibly some intermittent rain/drizzle in the west.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.96ac838a9a062e363f51cb6b2e0166d0.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.296339b2e4941d5bc9e9a1ebcd9cb202.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.cdb86e0d3f7474b0f00a53147a4cb26c.png

Overnight Saturday and through Sunday the waving front, including the remnants of Ernesto, track east to be over northern England by 1200 Sunday.

A quick overview of the latter as it loses it's oomph

gfs_z850_vort_natl_8.thumb.png.6f178d99a4593a22df75f09d999468db.pnggfs_z850_vort_natl_11.thumb.png.59f30b5a3065adae9033ff84b887e73d.pnggfs_z850_vort_natl_15.thumb.png.77186fadb117d5d1ddf27eeea5e53f00.png

And the surface analysis with the rain concentrated in the north and again the very marked N/S temp contrast.

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.504cbd7fc180bcf35cf3743e5ba14054.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.74da686f50fafa714b3e5da1eadda931.gif

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Monday and Tuesday are really an illustration of the opening comments as wave depressions swing north east bringing breezy conditions and patchy rain to the north whilst the south remains essentially dry and much warmer

.PPVM89.thumb.gif.c487528bd5cf45b84894eabb62e03f88.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.35cc541c5ddf1a560050dc7b77b6f284.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.c41df6dadf8abcaf42eebd1f1a5b6a4f.png

PPVO89.thumb.gif.b7c7399cab9a04156393d51b0db23d22.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_20.thumb.png.e7e69776b2e39eee28de7b622ecc8a2a.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.8a395d337d9f0a61c6baa530f236cd91.png

And the NH profile at T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.aba239d403f7927620425c9c1c47a363.pnggfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.b97dd7546d6541f578bf676ef6f69ea5.png

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Cold front away to the east and new fronts encroaching from the west on the 0600 UTC geostationary

geo.thumb.JPG.0b7954cc53c61a683ca76b3b10a26242.JPG

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At the beginning of next week the north continues to feel the brunt of the weather as an active front, orientated SW/NE to the west, edges south east. It will fizzle out as in descends down the UK

27699934_ac1.thumb.png.de95e8811f48698e91b36ee78ced6030.png295216284_ac2.thumb.png.379bafce61acb5e56f37ca1d3d2092fd.pngtotal.thumb.png.ca07e84ff24f734f7b25487a5c3f9609.png

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The cold front showing quite well on the 1200 UTC geostationary

geo.thumb.JPG.cd947c164d21aed37643b10a324d1e0e.JPGPPVA89.thumb.gif.ef571571b57542cc98b53b4cd4dbd205.gif

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The journey of Ernesto on this morning's fax updates Sat > Sun and the 06 gfs for same

PPVG89.thumb.gif.25c80530d4348887b0b6b656052100ab.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.c7de10e79642a961e849d8f6f469d52c.gifPPVJ89.thumb.gif.57c077b446140e8781e4bc1088e25a51.gif

gfs_z700_vort_atl_6.thumb.png.c9d07fbcea76eb4731d7e5fb4ba6751b.pnggfs_z700_vort_atl_8.thumb.png.bf5f52b15089d875076c2402276e21d1.pnggfs_z700_vort_eu_10.thumb.png.8c75d7e6051a2cd372136049a89c7a92.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_eu_9.thumb.png.7c505757ba94a2ee8d510a2d1ca7fe2d.png

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The key players over the weekend. The low south of Iceland and associated front(s) and Ernesto, both showing well on the 1500 UTC geostationary

geo.thumb.JPG.59e88f5c577d9cdb036dfbb07d638abb.JPGPPVA89.thumb.gif.7bc6b63fe93fb96f20e29f3fb5465ea9.gif

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Definitely not a good idea creating a cut off upper low and then initiating an amplification of the Bermuda high pressure.

gfs_z500a_nh_16.thumb.png.9e2faf4693d1be457ba39573a15168a3.pnggfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.1df0d25dbe5f7e820a623533315b3591.png

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Well the ecm differs with the evolution of the Atlantic profile, vis cut off low and high amplification, as early as T84 so no cold plunge later. But still looking at it being wet over the north by 1200 Tuesday with the front orientated across Scotland and N. Ireland and down to the south west. Over the next 18 hours it tracks south east but weakens as it hits the ridge and the main rain bey nips into southern Norway.

175490284_p102.thumb.png.73b1c11c6757d3e48917892ae552fa86.png845298235_p114.thumb.png.478917a7c892a75789c7e6d5dd87b975.png

But a strong W > E jet

jet.thumb.png.a4bfa170a4e4ab02aee37149a0b7163f.png

 

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The was a suggestion on last night's short range anomalies of the sub tropical high pushing north in the Atlantic temporarily and if this is the case it would herald a brief interlude of cooler unsettled weather over the UK as the upper flow veers to the north west  This would be just post the short range where there N/S split would generally still apply.

571182966_500nh2-7.thumb.png.2bdc9d5ce245baf0871ccee102b82d8a.png414713664_850nh2-7.thumb.png.3a491b03addce7b67bb39e55043ae1c5.png

Back to the here and now. At midnight the upper trough to the north and associated surface low will remain influential over the weekend courtesy of a trailing front and associated systems, including Ernesto, approaching from the west.

eur_full_500.thumb.gif.a447b76117c8128a7e0c3e38a9d4253a.gifPPVA89.thumb.gif.3ac26392aecc9da8b4f4452359d7793b.gif

Today cloud and patchy rain/drizzle from the front will continue to effect N. Ireland, southern Scotland and north west England whilst northern Scotland will clear and be quite windy. Further south far less cloud, apart maybe western coastal areas, and quite warm in the humid south westerly airstream.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.dd65475a9c6a13a910233d0dbcf8c160.gif1277421541_p11.thumb.png.8dad372f6b47b761698ef34cb1a5c572.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.5ed433c0b9e5fb8a8adddec54bd7fbe3.png

But as can be seen by 1800 Ernesto and the waving front are approaching western Ireland and the rain and moist tropical air associated with this will track across the country overnight and through Sunday morning before clearing into the North Sea. The rain, perhaps briefly heavy. will mainly be concentrated over N. Ireland. southern Scotland, and northern England and Wales and it will be quite windy in some places. Mainly cloudy further south but tending warm and humid.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.cc60eb0f89520821a44693bbba41954d.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.66f87dfb682bc88de6f18c7bdd1d5896.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.3a2759b63943fe978c1ce6d5a0f549a7.png

r21.thumb.png.bb9ce1c869f9b10c0789b961f51576fc.pngr00.thumb.png.b7d0d1f865fcd172cc601e1c7202b591.pngr03.thumb.png.789c6818e9f50be7f2ba5ef461da6465.png

r06.thumb.png.499be7afd06e84831efc92c0321eb8bb.pngr09.thumb.png.c6437e856da9da885cc6381701ba88ec.pngr12.thumb.png.94d9dd55c8d0ef76aa2b7bf0786808bd.png

By Monday, with Ernesto well out of the way, the UK generally is left with the legacy of warm, humid, air

gfs_t850a_eur_11.thumb.png.1b5e09e9e1d513a1dfdfcc2b9b07b43e.pnggfs_rh850_uk2_11.thumb.png.a1b6379cf4636191cec3cccd7dad06b7.png

with the next wave and associated fronts approaching from the south west. These track north east during the day bringing south patchy rain to northern areas but drier in the south and getting quite warm where the sun breaks through in the very broad warm sector.

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.fea9a3a75e306c5ab0071dcfaef32f3c.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.81b117f8da160442e1eeac9abd57ae82.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.4100cc80d1b8fdbfed2b4cc033b771ed.png

Keeping in mind that we are still in the warm, humid air on Tuesday, another partly cloudy day but again quite warm where the sun makes an appearance as the weakening cold front wanders south. Some patchy rain in the north as the next system approaches from the south west

PPVM89.thumb.gif.f77543154391fb4d8f7309159f53718c.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.6cf6ed65298f2633ab76b5e6fd9a7580.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.54b65d6ede0bcaf1dc3bc1f701722ab9.png

Overnight Tuesday and through Wednesday the next wave will track north east and it's the cold front associated with this that will bring cooler air generally as it tracks south east down the country accompanied by a  belt of patchy rain. But before that, and south of the front, it will be another warm day.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.6e58763c93c8d5a7db693792b158cf1b.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.3c059de9e6ad039d12f0d9a8af5192d0.png

And the NH profile at T120 and signs here relevant to the opening comments of the post

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.43a03eeeafe013cef02cea8e9b473bf4.pnggfs_t850a_nh_21.thumb.png.6ee15494e615873e9d5f42f243190754.png

 

Edited by knocker
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The ecm has the front and wave just west of the Hebrides at 12 Tuesday. Over the next 18 hours it takes the wave and heavy rain east into southern Norway whilst tracking the rapidly weakening front south  east down the UK.

t18.thumb.png.af3ed77270747e16479efc1091b14c6f.pngw18a.thumb.png.a69b04d83fbdacc3f2305c3d51511a89.png

It is actually a couple of days later that the HP amplifies to the west and veers the upper winds

jey.thumb.png.535a2999c717e5acb155102bcc7e1593.png963145480_jet2.thumb.png.a4058212cfbf1ba512e143c31732bb73.png

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