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Short range model discussion - into 2018

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The high res. MODIS at 1130 UTC

modis.thumb.JPG.b0cf3fad3074f40fc83426fe33a55a29.JPGPPVA89.thumb.gif.db62990341966f6c1015f21226e3a9a4.gif

And

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Edited by knocker
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Some cells around the convergences zones on the 1316 UTC MODIS and some Cbs on the 1300 chart

modis.thumb.JPG.c0166c84cf351c0434e1c561863b9324.JPGPPVA89.thumb.gif.5fdddb241c8f5e551f66bab3158ad6b2.gif

13.gif

Edited by knocker
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Tracking the depression and fronts that runs east on the jet to impact the UK at the end of the week with another little wave then waiting in the wings. According to this evening's gfs

gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_8.thumb.png.4c32ca71397d8ab51d6205c232968dd1.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_11.thumb.png.edf1fb7b7779efb0ece8b247f56a63a5.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_14.thumb.png.a3ba2cacd844791d1acc21a33d368cbf.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_17.thumb.png.792285bb1d8c940ad41184a051b9abcb.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_20.thumb.png.7075834a00687111cdf64bff090c2735.pnggfs_uv200_atl_13.thumb.png.8c35fc30805a812c9cf7cb003a55023f.png

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Nice line of cells over eastern England and frontal cloud gathering west of Ireland on the 1800 geostationary image

geo.thumb.JPG.188712acfc91e1f874924635f634e4d1.JPG

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The ecm has the front and strengthening winds impacting the north of the UK by 1200 Friday but quickly passing through but the waves are lined up to the west to quickly follow. Most of the patchy rai will be in the north but it will be generally breezy

1310279815_t96anan.thumb.png.92d676fa555e26cc25bf200139eb29b2.png199348105_t120anan.thumb.png.5e06d2c257b777ff2bbafad9237a18bb.png

927982351_300jet.thumb.png.94678d8707662b82beb96d5397452e2a.png1244245288_850anom.thumb.png.e09512c815ef01e1185804a44d456f8f.png

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The outlook remains changeable without anything of any note skulking in the woodshed . The pattern is quite well illustrated using the EPS short term NH 500mb anomalies for last evening.

This shows the main vortex lobe N. Canada with subsidiary south of Iceland and with the Atlantic sub tropical high trying to push north this results in a quite strong, but fairly anaemic westerly upper flow with a mainly positive anomaly, But within the main westerly pattern the strong thermal boundary between the air masses (a.k.a the jet stream) will wave as the airmasses phase and thus alternating airmass influences over the UK but tending towards a N/S split and warmer interludes in the south, Thus the changeable weather,  The detail of which of course the det. runs sort.

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Last evening's storms have dissipated as the upper tough moves east and this morning it is mainly dry but with varying amounts of cloud but more so in the north.

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The story of the day really, cloudy with sunny intervals, but an area of rain will quickly impact N, Ireland and central Scotland as a small frontal system tracks north east leaving a cooler, showery regime in it's wake. Drier and warmer in the south.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.d7d1320c71a9b6c6608dffb273946005.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.7368aefe51612f45f4f361dcc51e36ad.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.3cf12f1779fd08a71d43c69c567ae75a.png

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The system will quickly pass through so a relatively dry and clear night in the north and certainly in the south and east but rapid changes are afoot as the next frontal system associated with quite a deep low south of Iceland bring patchy rain and strengthening winds into NW/W areas in the early hours. Followed by more intense rainfall in N. Ireland and Scotland by 12 as an active cold front arrives on the scene. Drier and warmer south of the front as it tracks south east down the country. (touch of the Foehn Effect in the NE?)

PPVG89.thumb.gif.d7d9539cd41d4680555932aa9cfa2b06.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.bd004347630ed1ac254ac927f850677f.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.4da6462d4fcf05899ce03a0c3fb562df.png

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The front continues its journey overnight and through Thursday, clearing the south east by lunchtime, leaving much cooler air in it's wake with some quite hefty showers in the north and west on the quite strong NW/W wind.

PPVK89.thumb.gif.5d2b5ce0f656ba33b5362642ae556f9f.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_12.thumb.png.955760a398f7ca616b776089a804fc53.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.b54a3bfcfd8fa29be519b5a3489962d4.png

But all the while the next upper low is getting organized and about to track quickly east north of the jet ( pretty much as mentioned in the introduction).

gfs_z500a_natl_15.thumb.png.14903fbb4510fde9a1b05e09a6eb5f52.pnggfs_uv250_natl_15.thumb.png.abe0fcb150d751dc2189a0163d059295.png

On the surface this results in a deepening surface low tracking rapidly east to be 978mb between Iceland and Scotland by 1200 on Friday with heavy rain and strong winds, possibly gale force for a time, effecting N. Ireland and Scotland. with the rain then reaching as far south as the north of England and N. Wales on a generally quite cool day.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.3f426ddf92fa8770e0746f5c00d93751.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.9cc055d3885c872ae70b1c88d49bdf98.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.a7b6276520b33dd972a474b654c6df3f.png

Quite a messy picture on Saturday as the low has scooted north but with other systems waiting in the wings to the west and a front straddling the country a brief, cooler and showery in the north and cloudy and warmer in the south, description will have to suffice.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.84119971be26fcbaa2c0d7d2c93decc4.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_20.thumb.png.e6ae29febaaa2a62414c9d787ed4dfeb.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.d096b8c910456a5e647da6d981bdd7e2.png

And the NH profile for T120 which is just about where we came in.

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.8a90550517bcaaf94445b08f3b01c679.pnggfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.7ed7ffe65a7ffee6c50cd8fcfca851ff.png

Edited by knocker
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The ecm take for the end of the week finds the low 981mb south of Iceland with associated fronts and strong winds already effecting the north west at 1200 on Friday. These quickly clear before  a wave arrives over the same area and the west by 00 Sunday.The south/ south east remaining relatively dry and less windy.

1552857086_anf12.thumb.png.3f200aed414f38e1b62e86d3e9e9280f.png2045487679_ans06.thumb.png.0329eb10341c8a5cec0ebcf9177dcea8.png907799518_ansu00.thumb.png.4babd087d79c6d9e7662976dd23b16ed.png

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The 0600 geostationary

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Edited by knocker
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The weak warm front has brought a lot of cloud to many areas today and bits and bobs of rain in th north west but in many areas this should clear a bit this evening and overnight except again in the north west. So tomorrow morning reasonable bright and quite warm in southern regions but the next little wave is tracking north east to bring more persistent rain to western Scotland

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The ecm has the low 982mb south of Iceland at 1200 Friday with the front, rain and strong winds impacting the north of the UK.  The front and rain pass through quite quickly leaving frequent heavy showers, particularly in western areas before some very brief ridging on Saturday before the wave arrives in the early hours of Sunday. Temps below average in the north but drier and temps a little above in the south east on Saturday

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This evening's fax

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Edited by knocker
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The outlook this morning is unchanged from yesterday so little point in repeating the overall assessment but a couple of current charts this morning does serve to illustrate the general theme very well. The two conflicting airmasses, the cooler, unstable to the NW with the jet dividing it from the warmer and more humid air to the south. The fronts along this divide come into play over the next couple of days

gfs_t850a_natl_2.thumb.png.8b47f0fa9ac4ddb9ab3315ee1d7e75cc.pnggfs_uv250_natl_2.thumb.png.21d32588068af5a5fb6bbd0cdd1c6aac.png

A fairly cloudy start to the day in many areas, particularly the north west with patchy rain as a waving front is straddled across N. Ireland and southern Scotland. During the day the front will move slowly south east but during the afternoon a more substantial belt of rain will arrive over N. Ireland and Scotland and also travel slowly south east. Meanwhile the south/south east is in the more humid and warm air and where the cloud breaks it will be quite warm/

PPVA89.thumb.gif.444f689a03ef08737b630e61e4a4e244.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.dc501b2fb86e1798ed8c292b3eab4000.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.63ad2153a88544462692832a1073e70b.png

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The front(s) will continue to track south east overnight and through Thursday and there could well be some moderate rain in the areas along the track, before clearing the south coast by early evening. The passage of the fronts introduces much cooler, unstable, air in it;s wake resulting in frequent showers that could well be quite substantial in the north west as embedded troughs within the circulation of the main low pass through.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.06d66bcd3098f28b9e9e26e87f808def.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.ce66dfe4af7869c47b6c81aa98e437bf.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.cfc0819d6a732e880aad080297bb6fd7.png

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The showers will continue overnight in Scotland but, keeping in mind the opening charts of the post, a deepening depression tracks rapidly east on the jet and is 983mb south of Iceland by 1200 Friday with the associated fronts bringing strong winds and rain to the north and west of the country.

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.b30a074293e5dc034c5780ae85c647f0.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.59ce4a36ab0ceb77decd188cd123a34d.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.a65d445050fea2c43d20e71579ceba2a.png

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The scenario over the weekend is quite complex, albeit fairly quiet, as a waving front trails from the low, now over Scandinavia, down through the UK and out into the Atlantic.  One such wave will bring showery rain across an area north of the Midlands through late Saturday and through Sunday whilst it will be quite warm in the south east.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.94aa1817431938862ed1367efd0ee741.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.83fa112e9b574c94e7cc567c73328862.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.82c969bb4f5d61dd7b870f0985edb3e0.png

PPVO89.thumb.gif.1048b40023aed8b5d2a6d765c874ac8c.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_19.thumb.png.e3f64d2470c0ca866e8ab90799f3693b.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.ca69c359888c43e45289cf40e3a73199.png

And the NH profile at T120 is just about where we came in but the jet is a tad further north

gfs_t850a_nh_21.thumb.png.27b470f66d74f3fd435f9417a6f20f1d.pnggfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.670b64df60487e2d8160a2c3a04c9dc3.png

Edited by knocker
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The surface chart for 0400 UTC. Certainly not a cold night with some rain the Western Isles and N. Ireland

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This morning's updated fax charts for Friday/Sat00 ext with the ecm

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.4a9e1c2cb05e021807697e2e877077c8.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.f818085c7a6fe2e0978cd75a163932a3.gif

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total.thumb.png.41d793e4ae55b59362dc87b7177b5a6a.png

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Interesting how the ecm promotes and develops the low that starts life over the eastern US at T72. See how this goes this evening

ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_4.thumb.png.f5f6985c275e3270e946d56488102cc1.pngecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_5.thumb.png.95cc96bbba75bfb1ce2f3e1f3daf95d1.pngecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_6.thumb.png.17cf49cfff7f629ba280a0524cdd47d8.png

 

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The sequence of the fronts and rain belt movements later and the initiation of frequent heavy showers according to this morning's WRF

PPVA89.thumb.gif.09a55685fef430783d9641d5b9b9f518.gif1036800229_p18.thumb.png.946420b960da6e532ff1932fa29a719f.png243379048_p00.thumb.png.96fd2f1b18b3c6a76f5a77f36e21b6b3.png

1518526567_p06.thumb.png.2bf9907f5c0a2059841d8b6ffd2fdfe4.png532138275_p09.thumb.png.675c22a2cae18051c56e679a432f9b4e.png377620823_p12.thumb.png.d735bdfee5dc8dae84a617d8e5d6af72.png

total.thumb.png.33a0f55344a333ee4d5a5b5e261f0b00.png

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Goes east at 1200 UTC We might cop some nifty sunsets from this dust 😲

goes.thumb.JPG.2f57a36c8392aae747c555c6f0e642b5.JPG

Edited by knocker
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The high res. MODIS at 1300 UTC and the 1400 surface chart, As forecast some quite good temps inthe clear area in the north east (Foehn?)

modis.thumb.JPG.123c9b81888e09caba887d47ac409454.JPG14.thumb.gif.20177ff597ca45b39a6d1602a78088ae.gif

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The low 1200 Saturday according to this evening's fax and ecm and then the ecm continuation as it quickly loses it's identity over the next 48hours. To the west a few waves forming along the airmass boundary

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t72.thumb.png.6c29e6a771ac4f7eafff4a2f2d43c049.pngt96.thumb.png.77bf1b50fe377f163b707d18f9a2eb59.pngt120.thumb.png.f6d54d8bc71e8241f35917c599464a15.png

975526081_t120850.thumb.png.d67c2506ca55b0267d1addf04e2614b0.png

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