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Short range model discussion - into 2018

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Posted (edited)

By 1200 Tuesday the main low is south of Iceland with a subsidiary wave within the circulation tracking north east into N. Ireland and Scotland by 00 Monday bringing cloud and rain with it, The associated cold front will slowly track south east and decay through Monday and Tuesday whilst the main low re orientates to the north west as pressure amplifies in the western Atlantic, An illustration of the continuing NW/SE split

PPVK89.thumb.gif.41299c129ff653d93dc54e890074b97a.gif

1198787294_m00.thumb.png.e15582ba7fd2832e70d2463dc8d42ae9.png1272220391_m12.thumb.png.df596c6bb6e97bd7a45a650aa44b6adc.png554919104_tu18.thumb.png.66419ad7c4dfdf0cb5a6f07e97d003a8.png

2057734762_mmax.thumb.png.6215a599b861b6ccc25e4157e35474d5.png390773824_tmax.thumb.png.803d597ed4c0edea738704232347709f.png500.thumb.png.002b7259f3f8d825b1ece8b415e10a81.png

Edited by knocker
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The opening comment above should obviously read, "By 1200 Sunday". Yet another senior moment.

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Posted (edited)

The outlook is for hot and sunny weather to continue in the south east but cooler and cloudier in the north and west before becoming more generally unsettled towards the end of the period.

The NH profile as of now

gfs_z500a_nh_2.thumb.png.817d5db2915768efd88d4bdf4bd6018e.png

Currently some rain over the western Isles which should clear fairly quickly but a more concentrated area of cloud over N. Ireland, southern Scotland and northern England associated with the cold front.

2018_8_3_300_MSG4_26_S1_grid.thumb.jpeg.154ba30708fdfac9867a1982a8e5dce6.jpeg

This will bring a period of rain to the north during the morning before turning showery. Cloud may also linger down through Wales and western parts of England but elsewhere, particularly the south east where it will be hot, sunny and quite warm. Later in the day some heavy showers could effect northern Scotland.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.32440bc63339790a91150b77150b0627.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.597cf0690328c5fbce7c8a2f9eb41e60.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.c92f45f1045c7992ae0e92837a2143cf.png

overview_009.thumb.jpg.013abc499b6fd9a9f7094d8a5b6fe400.jpgoverview_012.thumb.jpg.93eb1265ecce6c92449194078644d65c.jpgoverview_015.thumb.jpg.0a02969245548428f1c55828b3c4cc64.jpg

overview_018.thumb.jpg.81c1df416e614a2b961ad0633311077a.jpg

Overnight and through Saturday the ridge becomes more influential thus generally more sunny and very warm weather but with low pressure and a dying front quite adjacent, cooler and cloudier in the far north with the odd spot of light rain.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.ae8c6a8d22dd7bbe9627f965ae016f2e.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.a3cb4c84c298f11f6b8a18638db72c24.gif

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_8.thumb.png.88a12c2a09cdb96f4ed63e759238471e.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.a05e6587d3555140190a57acd52c3f23.png

The next two or three days is characterized by the N/S divide  Thus on Sunday the ridge is still prevailing in the south, so again hot and sunny, but cooler air in the north in the westerly flow around the top of the ridge, and as low pressure to the north west begins to slide east the associated fronts start effecting the north and north west.

PPVK89.thumb.gif.7f9d0c27464ce1c3ac0fd0fa735a356c.gifPPVL89.thumb.gif.8f523614c0f7ed1a3585b607f44a8903.gif

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_12.thumb.png.359ad6a8ca3c872cc28a84c820409333.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.1087518ccc41be7103bfee1d4bc84b24.png

By Monday some major changes are afoot with the ridge under severe pressure as the upper low to the north west and the cooler air start to become much more influential

gfs_z500a_natl_16.thumb.png.172254fca889766327cddc1a565b410d.pnggfs_t850a_natl_16.thumb.png.6d44f91a9b8e1a38e66cf13b8cd8b5ef.png

On the surface this translates to a low between Iceland and Scotland with the associated cold front straddling the north thus a very marked N/S split, cloudy with some patchy rain in the north, whilst still very warm and locally hot in the south

PPVM89.thumb.gif.abe64b8ed1511beeb5c47d4f459ff2e5.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.d27abac798e780353fa12d9509177761.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.d8674f59026b7d052ee6a28359ac2a23.png

Tuesday sees further amplification in the Atlantic with the UK the boundary between the airmasses.

gfs_z500a_natl_20.thumb.png.949da65cfef48d90c36215114d1ac27c.pnggfs_t850a_natl_20.thumb.png.c2690ebe78f6d2702e229039ce5c7fbf.png

Thus quite a complex weather picture with cloud and patchy rain in the north, sunny and very warm in the south east, but with low pressure and a trough close to the Kent coast a distinct possibility of some storms.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.027a39f0b31fbb94dd7a059f51be0f35.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_20.thumb.png.db3c9ed5d523c2639f5675e756edae74.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.1ba5aad9e07ed75ddaedf2c2b64326f8.png

 

 

Edited by knocker
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This morning's updated fax charts for Monday and the ecm M/T

PPVK89.thumb.gif.2a274c51bb14da4d2285a0cfd036df28.gifPPVL89.thumb.gif.95f01a5a9a9eb760bf92f43451f4e960.gif

2065845710_ma.thumb.png.452b680a090762d5cdebb2641c4ed219.png1076436733_ta.thumb.png.980505c99d0f4821fcfaa904dd759229.png

And the transition Tuesday

674966628_ttrough.thumb.png.ec433da17d1efc459ad24f2bcae7d64a.png1583119307_t850.thumb.png.210f974136022a72cf409a65052201ce.png

The 0600 UTC geostationary

geo.thumb.JPG.a6f101f438813bd26d551a64f0202c6f.JPG

 

 

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A bit outside the short range but this caught my eye. With the generally more unsettled period in the middle of next week the ecm has a very unstable area over France which develops into an intense little low that nips north east over Kent, Obviously this will not reproduce but the general theme is worth keeping an eye on.

58348268_thcon.thumb.png.5490c35632deedf981785480d5f9e6f1.png1716340172_frcon.thumb.png.ea072fa745c90fbf335c9333899715c5.png

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I note the AROME is using the 34-35C scale for central London this afternoon. 

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The 0900 UTC geo and the chart

geo.thumb.JPG.42bd404a6debddb8a7476c2fbf6b644a.JPG09.thumb.gif.fedd3f829c26871ab7ff65f6a9844ed9.gif

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High res. MODIS at 1240 UTC and midday chart

modis.thumb.JPG.2317d85f75eaac8dc966b8975a9930d0.JPG12.thumb.gif.9aa724950eee62ea57e711e9fd79eef7.gif

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With some reference to an earlier ecm post this evening's Atlantic amplification and development of the upper trough with the associated much colder air is not without interest

gfs_z500a_natl_21.thumb.png.34bf1a151e87cc4b7f689593a48cde3f.pnggfs_t850a_natl_21.thumb.png.95f3e6a68754cfc431755a0951a37873.png

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Posted (edited)

Monday at 1200 sees the main low 995mb north west of the Hebrides with the associated cold front across N. Ireland and southern Scotland, It gradually moves south over the next 24 hours but with little rain on it as it decays. But it does mark the boundary between the cooler air in the north and the still very warm in the south east.

PPVK89.thumb.gif.a2feb7bf93feacf5128e6891b351b730.gif1927584603_monp12.thumb.png.874c33b45a389a771c702a197d84448f.png

535423729_mona.thumb.png.fedbb465e168c08838b61bbf74f76a26.png485074796_tuesa.thumb.png.98408a122c248662fecfb976756e089a.png

But at this point amplification is occurring in the Atlantic and the trough is developing adjacent to the UK with much cooler air being introduced generally.

1464103301_120500.thumb.png.b069826bf7fcfd464c030c9f4f25f858.png2099228673_120850.thumb.png.ed7bdea26b1418d150e97992ad3a32a8.png

And further to my post this morning it is still developing the thundery low tracking NE from France and skirting the south east into the North Sea later in the week

vorticity.thumb.png.cd60dfbd5032a9df3d769edc8f08be11.png

 

Edited by knocker
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13 hours ago, knocker said:

A bit outside the short range but this caught my eye. With the generally more unsettled period in the middle of next week the ecm has a very unstable area over France which develops into an intense little low that nips north east over Kent, Obviously this will not reproduce but the general theme is worth keeping an eye on.

58348268_thcon.thumb.png.5490c35632deedf981785480d5f9e6f1.png1716340172_frcon.thumb.png.ea072fa745c90fbf335c9333899715c5.png

And there it is again on the 12z at T168. Probably gone tomorrow, but...

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, knocker said:

A bit outside the short range but this caught my eye. With the generally more unsettled period in the middle of next week the ecm has a very unstable area over France which develops into an intense little low that nips north east over Kent, Obviously this will not reproduce but the general theme is worth keeping an eye on.

58348268_thcon.thumb.png.5490c35632deedf981785480d5f9e6f1.png1716340172_frcon.thumb.png.ea072fa745c90fbf335c9333899715c5.png

I hope this doesn’t happen the way it’s being shown in the charts today as my friend gets married next Friday. After all the weeks of heat and sunshine here in the SE though that’ll be just her luck. 

Edited by lottiekent
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Posted (edited)

Still plenty of dry and sunny weather for England and Wales, particularly the south and south east of England, over the next few days but cloudier with patchy rain/drizzle in the north west and possible the west before generally the introduction of more changeable conditions towards the end of the period.

The current NH profile

gfs_z500a_nh_2.thumb.png.7982dc2ddb5bc271a048c301cfb3c107.png

It has been a cloudy and muggy night in many areas

2018_8_4_300_MSG4_26_S1_grid.thumb.jpeg.6925ed1914808a914908db56292dc132.jpeggfs_t2min_c_uk2_2.thumb.png.b5152b2a04526ce88a8366455f3a9f15.png

and this will be the case first up but with high pressure set to dominate over the weekend this should clear all but the north west and perhaps some western areas resulting in warm and sunny day elsewhere and hot once again in the south.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.046d49df8b89b9c3d7af74f292219df1.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.489df4f1889027984dbc2f2721b6e0fd.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.8fbd4bbeba0a836f90a5278151ea7b63.png

As previously mentioned high pressure continues to dominate but a front does skirt northern Scotland over night bringing a little patchy rain but elsewhere quite dry and clear with light winds which portends another warm and sunny day, hot in the south east. But during the afternoon the next frontal system will track north east around the ridge bringing rain and strengthening winds to Scotland.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.b450f41f49fa0fa45e85bdaf166b7211.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.eecf27f6e09bf7a61de7ce65fe3f8bd3.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.d83d93ed5d4b48056e3e87a809954d58.png

overview_024.thumb.jpg.a75c15a7ed8f550f77663d408a4ea307.jpgoverview_027.thumb.jpg.7d2808e5ae5af598e26158137984e33b.jpgoverview_030.thumb.jpg.cacf1628eb1c07ae8772292eda4d881c.jpg

overview_039.thumb.jpg.1e4a915a30fbbf98dad5bd0f3e8bc0ca.jpgoverview_042.thumb.jpg.c65200d3ed147e1d68dc0231b7740578.jpgoverview_045.thumb.jpg.8bf51491e36461eba02b504911b513e7.jpg

The rain will spread slowly south east over night and through Monday as the cold front does similar, albeit decaying as it goes, leaving showery conditions in it's wake and this marks the boundary as south of the front another very warm and sunny day.

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.fea00c35cfd3c3ccc93272c586552bc4.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.b373fda948c3ee14e4b6e159732e8b82.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.1c80f44c6a23eee43716597d0c62b3b3.png

overview_051.thumb.jpg.c73e0496b84b502137ecb56c6fad705d.jpgoverview_054.thumb.jpg.2288cb0bcb5550d311486036159942ff.jpgoverview_060.thumb.jpg.164111b11eb79ce0956aded9c0042259.jpg

But by Tuesday changes are afoot with amplification in the Atlantic and the upper trough starting the process of becoming elongated and stretching further south.

gfs_z500a_natl_15.thumb.png.d787381367645829bb692ff80e1b722e.pnggfs_t850a_natl_15.thumb.png.142fa5536f5bf3b74ef21318bf3d40ca.png

On the surface this has the main low north west of Scotland with the associated occlusion lying just to west with the old cold front straddling central England marking the sharp divide between NW and SE.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.c27130b439293e148c6895f9744c18cb.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.c8d409276ecb52c0d23d1ae536c2f71a.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.00c0e80bed7c0cb2291e0c96effe0b6f.png

By Wednesday the aforementioned occlusion has tracked east and the cooler air covers all of the UK except the far southeast. Showery conditions behind the front and perhaps the odd storm in the south east.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.cc36b79281efdea833fd94584cba4e6a.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_20.thumb.png.223f015433625bd62890157e08c0422d.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.5cc2987fda94d04fbdafebafb6e33939.png

And now at T120 the changes in the NH profile are quite apparent

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.25f3eb061b7ca8ecaad2a23adf3c02af.pnggfs_t850a_nh_21.thumb.png.ce34f58ddb68cb7d2999ba2d1b95cb0d.png

 

Edited by knocker
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A fair bit of cloud around on the 0600 geostationary

geo.thumb.JPG.e54ef46d9e7d24d4449adbada767a47b.JPG

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The passage of the cold front and occlusion on Tues/Weds which modifies the airmass over the UK

PPVK89.thumb.gif.48a309745fe846b36060ccc5fa24d6c6.gif540195907_tuesa.thumb.png.5a157bbf4e8838f715b499994e978b70.png1535809411_wa.thumb.png.292a4c3c157186f8c7d6a51ec36bde01.png

And later in the week the area of instability is tracking NE into Denmark and no longer forming an enclosed low.

den.thumb.png.df0cb596df58fdab71195b63c69b692b.png

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High res. MODIS at 1134 UTC

modis.thumb.JPG.cfb7b5aebe9b5f6580c8bd0c9ed3c05c.JPG

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The high res. MODIS at 1330 UTC. The 1300 chart with highest temps along the south coast and the low St has hung around here all day in the light onshore drift

modis.thumb.JPG.1e6d754caf6c099ffdb39797cd95626c.JPG13.thumb.gif.88894f19c27db9342458ececbfd64a1b.gif2018080412.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.ddc6ef38f37a105eaa691344a641aea2.gif

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Posted (edited)

UKMO confirming the NW/SE split

ukmo.thumb.png.4f4ae60ca8ed212867a2cbc2a2014db9.png358934514_ukmor.thumb.png.029ba715804e69f692195ab47b812bc2.png

Edited by knocker

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Posted (edited)

Still need to keep an eye on the unstable low pressure area over France on Thursday. Currently the worst is still passing east of the Kent coast

2032749742_thursp.thumb.png.96a6a4eb8b2c7d6b79b5feaebb5977fc.pngthurs.thumb.png.14059a01e5e179a2ce81e787081ca008.pngvort.thumb.png.5b2633046b05a5ea749f38d4e625b8ca.png

Edited by knocker
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Outlook.

The transition from high pressure influence to a more cyclonic and cooler regime during the period. The current NH profile

gfs_z500a_nh_2.thumb.png.4100f727ddc339d240dccfd210f3aa83.pnggfs_t850a_nh_2.thumb.png.c1b31076641646a33344b62b40e8174c.png

It's been a mainly clear night apart from north west Scotland, some patchy high/medium cloud over the midlands and north Wales and the persistent Stratus in the south west. Hopefully the latter will clear this morning leaving everywhere sunny and warm, locally hot, apart from western Scotland where a new wave tracking north east within the circulation of the main low south of Iceland will bring cloud and rain by early afternoon and covering the whole of Scotland and N. Ireland by 00.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.4d786ba950e0311ee35f45055fc628a0.gifPPVG89.thumb.gif.99c3f7bc279fb9d7e977fa1f8e0475fa.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.c8b4b3cc1199e9d1303c678d83a79efd.png

overview_015.thumb.jpg.be0f849e517ef2489a46247185260558.jpgoverview_018.thumb.jpg.334c73fd578bea0c3f94a62a80022c52.jpgoverview_024.thumb.jpg.f2b8ad463a95f6a32392cab7922d8568.jpg

Through early Monday the main belt of rain will move into the North Sea but the weakening cold front will track slowly south east during the day accompanied by patchy rain and introducing cooler air in it's wake. In the meantime another very warm south of the front over much of England and Wales and again locally hot.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.08bd96b1a783984f19291037da335160.gifPPVJ89.thumb.gif.fd36e5d9c791df438f45a8fa12322d93.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.ec0d361e11c927c107f3c8ebc795c07a.png

overview_027.thumb.jpg.b44fe01cf0400a9f3985580f06561dd0.jpgoverview_030.thumb.jpg.4f5c7cbc996a1ffe0df877c7b99ea2b1.jpgoverview_033.thumb.jpg.f4cc6ce3ce9f96a04ab820b4816b4783.jpg

overview_036.thumb.jpg.a6295e4b51fc1a2cecae1b0afaca64e5.jpgoverview_039.thumb.jpg.fa6a41db8bca4d19ebdd6b88e25b168d.jpg

A quick pause here for an overview finds the upper low south east of Iceland with the trough and cooler air stretching south over Ireland

gfs_z500a_natl_12.thumb.png.94913b9b26df50da2fbebfc8f47afd5f.pnggfs_t850a_natl_12.thumb.png.d88225b0062367c232067c2467af859b.png

On the surface the weakening cold front is still straddling the country so still hot and humid in the south east and here thunderstorms may well develop during the day as the ridge retreats and low pressure develops.

PPVK89.thumb.gif.5b39d40121935588eae7642b0f266fa5.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_12.thumb.png.c9cea5a617da9ebae2c99efd7e6463fa.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.328ff244aad12b29752d0e21c1ef6100.png

By Wednesday the cold front finally clears leaving all of the UK in the fresher airmass and the main low is now west of the Hebrides with a weakening occlusion down western  Scotland and N. Ireland moving east, thus showery conditions in the western half of the UK

PPVM89.thumb.gif.97eacdc87dfb60b9def58cc7b184b522.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.4440d5e02418a3e7f1af81d8573e131c.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.618aaeab7a11ac559668aa349a921d9d.png

The occlusion is quickly into the North Sea on Thursday leaving the UK in a fresh westerly and much cooler than of late with temps generally below average with frequent rain showers, more concentrated in the north and west.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.5cc9f5e461b09be7cee45b976dba8679.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_20.thumb.png.54ff14d6698ac0b585966e57d87f65d9.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.0b75e793da85ab16a0539e4086e3abb4.png

And the NH now at T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.1f1280a5b78ddc755ac53dcb3819d2b1.pnggfs_t850a_nh_21.thumb.png.d54bc427c721cb8d1d9493853b907f09.png

 

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Sat and chart 0500 UTC. Currently thick fog here, sky obscured

ch13.thumb.jpg.affc3e94d1f8eeed8d70f148d1a41736.jpg05.thumb.gif.d9aef7351d4aa8868aeee340747a8c38.gif

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This morning's fax charts for Tuesday as the weakening cold front slides south east and an area of instability tracks across the south east with perhaps the odd storm or two. And the ecm

PPVI89.thumb.gif.ff253f83b3738ba45426291534e0686b.gifPPVJ89.thumb.gif.9dc9340b6f9c845b467810a3e7f4c811.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.766afa551ce81ebe083c00d0d181fbe9.gif

2093392755_t12p.thumb.png.0a41eb573c862b0d9d3be7968fa15559.png1469144074_w00p.thumb.png.c679f0814bbe742529a82a9aaccf56f5.png1591695482_tmax.thumb.png.10b40a72d54bb21a06df5f14bcd4b458.png

And the area of instability and thundery showers is currently moving east into Germany according to the ecm

rain.thumb.png.b1f9bcc07e762f05d4b310e6ae697f1e.png

 

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The fog quickly cleared this morning. The 0900 UTC geo

geo.thumb.JPG.62c34a821262c01f51ea1cefd16c1121.JPG

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      Stratosphere
    • By Paul
      Ooh yes, it's busy and with good reason - it's a rare beast to see the sort of charts we're seeing right now. It would appear the UK and much of Europe is headed into the freezer, but how cold, and for how long?
      As always, please keep to just discussing the model output in this thread.
      We have a thread open to discuss the cold spell - so if you're wanting to chat more generally about it, or talk about forecasts from the BBC, Met Office, Netweather etc, please head over there:
      https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/
      It's also worth keeping an eye on is the blogs from our team including @Jo Farrow & @Nick Finnis, there's some great info about the SSW, the cold spell etc, and new articles will be posted regularly:
      https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/blogs
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Snow forecast and precip type
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
    • By Paul
      The much talked about SSW has taken place, but as Nick blogged about a few days ago, it doesn't always mean cold for the UK. The signs are good though (if you like cold that is), and the model output is showing a lot of northern blocking currently. It's set to be a really interesting time to follow the models if nothing else, so please carry on the discussion here. 
      As ever, please keep it to model discussion only in this thread.....
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Snow forecast and precip type
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
    • By Paul
      Please only post about the model output in this thread - if you're unsure what this entails, and what thread you should be using, please see our posting guide:
      https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89198-model-threads-posting-guide/.
      We don't want to do it, but we have and will either block from posting, or pre-moderate the posts of those who continually post off topic posts in here. So please don't let that be you, with what may be a very interesting/exciting spell of weather on the way.  
      If you spot a post which you believe may be off topic or breaking the forum guidelines in any way, please hit the report button, and don't respond in the thread. The team will deal with reports as quickly as they can.
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Snow forecast and precip type
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
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