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Short range model discussion - into 2018


Paul

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8 hours ago, knocker said:

The fax charts fpr 12 tomorrow and 00 & 12 Tuesday showing the looped back occlusion clearing the Channel along with any lingering snow/rain and thereafter for the rest of the day and Tuesday a dry and more settled period with the odd shower in the east as a cold front battles against the ridge, Temps slowly improving and feeling warmer as the wind abates.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.adc5ebfdbd927a25c63f3b67491efe56.gifPPVG89.thumb.gif.e544782accdd29212de163ba9e03ddf6.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.06795065e72c9ea7389ed1a8642538ca.gif

gfs_t2max_c_uk2_6.thumb.png.c301638c6e586f99ac6d8660326d2b9c.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_10.thumb.png.0dbf6937da767a078d7d4eb7daa10bea.png

Tuesday is showing a posible marginal event Yorkshire down to the southeast with that dividing line front being the boundary between cold air to the east and less cold air to the west, last harrar for this current spell? or will it come to nothing, anything can happen with our weather 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The pattern change gets underway in ernest today with the Azores HP starting to ridge N/NE and become more influential with the upper trough shunted south over France. Thus the remaining snow/rain associated with the wave in the Channel, currently affecting the south west will do the same. So after a very cold night most of the UK should enjoy a sunny day becoming slightly less cold as the bitter easterly abates. This will continue over night but scattered snow showers, turning to rain, will affect mainly eastern areas as the cold front staggers south west.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.13bdb044b223fcc3c8d9f74097de18d8.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.6ab9a3a85b0f50aaf262bc08277437a9.gifradar.thumb.JPG.84879c7d1d3d55b8807357da78a39c4d.JPG

5aaf40f224492_shower1.thumb.JPG.2826a6173b14eb0234946519c8fef22c.JPG5aaf40f8845a4_shower2.thumb.JPG.5a24cca6b9aaa109fde489ff307fc9ad.JPG5aaf40fe54471_shower3.thumb.JPG.3e4221ef41994b3b2846aa32a27634d2.JPG

5aaf410e01da7_shower4.thumb.JPG.cdd640d7ebeca282621f69e12deaa3f7.JPGgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.1d02ba5e1ce5f626ac961463be5718b8.png

So Tuesday will continue to be sunny in many areas, with scattered rain showers mainly confined to the east,,and temps will continue to rise, albeit still below average, and with the wind fairly light it will  actually feel quite pleasant in many areas.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_8.thumb.png.f2e0cf86d63339506bf26fb1d09a089b.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.fda2ae5514c38aa1c60e141b87496f06.png

Wednesday sees the continuation of the pattern transition and for the first time for a while we need to look to the west rather than the east, The ridge over the UK comes under pressure from upper trough(s) tracking east driven by the two energy flows from northern Canada and the south east seaboard of the United States. Thus by 1200 rain and strong winds are already affecting Scotland as the ridge is depressed. By now the temps are quite close to average.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_11.thumb.png.6a7675f3142f48ebb7689026e7f2f1eb.pnggfs_z500a_natl_11.thumb.png.327ef89edfaeda010d5d73947b25412e.pnggfs_uv500_natl_11.thumb.png.a6e835c367215c17ab6f071782a590d4.png

The front and rain quickly clear overnight Wednesday leaving the south dry and still under the influence of the ridge which turns out to be very resilient under renewed pressure from systems pushing east, in which it is helped considerable by the upper trough to the east, Thus the front and low tend to stall over Ireland with just N. Ireland and Scotland being affected by strong winds and rain by 00 Friday. Temps by now much better with the colder air shunted down as far as Timbuktu

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_15.thumb.png.9ca08bd84ac13a82bcf08416137445d6.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_17.thumb.png.bb0e9cd6088a917c8d868f8e3cb9126b.pnggfs_z500a_natl_17.thumb.png.54faff89bb9251e806dbc4f7c96f6785.png

gfs_t850a_natl_17.thumb.png.1bd81bd01c2eb6318461534a336c6c65.png

On Friday the upper trough to the west deconstructs leading to a static surface pattern with the low parked north west of Scotland so still windy and unsettled there whilst the front fizzles out down the western half of the UK where it will be unsettled with rain showers. This is of course according to the GFS

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_20.thumb.png.dacbab67021ac305fa63df530d19d4c5.pnggfs_z500a_natl_20.thumb.png.04ee06675721f82f48d9940ecf7d6806.pnggfs_uv500_natl_20.thumb.png.ed94c20df98cc9830fb63e7d308d2c5e.png

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

Hi knocker, have you got a link you can share where you’re getting those satellite images from? They’re exceptional quality. Thanks 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

One interesting aspect of the ecm this morning is the surge of the Aleutian ridge that results in a high cell over the Pole. This is then part of the pattern that was signaled on last night's anomalies of the main vortex lobe N. Russia and trough down through Europe and the subsidiary Hudson Bay with the associated trough orientated south east across the UK and the Azores ridging in mid Atlantic.

ecm_eps_z500a_nh_4.thumb.png.89880d4d43924dee78b2028f21583790.pngecm_eps_z500a_nh_6.thumb.png.1e46bcc68e4d142545c880db5a136563.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The 1200 geostationary (courtesy the Dundee Satellite Receiving Station) showing both the upper and surface occlusions

geo.thumb.JPG.44e7a81f59b8501879521cdbb4d10f85.JPGPPVA89.thumb.gif.c14ea97f12fda7dd39bd830d7e1279cf.gif

and I can report that Sidney is quite perky as the snow melts in the sunshine.

sidney.thumb.jpg.2948ae7603b941ff6a232d67bf040e03.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Many western areas will be clear tonight thus the temps will drop and it could be quite icy by morning Tomorrow the same ares may well have a pretty good sunny day But further east it will become increasingly cloudy this evening and overnight as the front struggles south west with some rain/sleet showers although this does reduce the frost and ice potential. Temps approaching average.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.998f9cbf0a19e0be2fbef0cfcb991bfb.gif

5aafe0f4a2c5f_showers1.thumb.JPG.2ed16242dbb9204b39e56764874e9e5d.JPG5aafe0fa66251_showers2.thumb.JPG.a0fb78400d32a495610ca1671a8026bc.JPG5aafe1010875d_showers3.thumb.JPG.01f5ffc1527e2723f0f96628dad65354.JPG

temp.thumb.JPG.364e84e8b9411727d1eba51b878e22e9.JPGgfs_t2max_c_uk2_6.thumb.png.10009eba5d4d07dae38234af4c279a26.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
14 minutes ago, knocker said:

Many western areas will be clear tonight thus the temps will drop and it could be quite icy by morning Tomorrow the same ares may well have a pretty good sunny day But further east it will become increasingly cloudy this evening and overnight as the front struggles south west with some rain/sleet showers although this does reduce the frost and ice potential. Temps approaching average.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.998f9cbf0a19e0be2fbef0cfcb991bfb.gif

5aafe0f4a2c5f_showers1.thumb.JPG.2ed16242dbb9204b39e56764874e9e5d.JPG5aafe0fa66251_showers2.thumb.JPG.a0fb78400d32a495610ca1671a8026bc.JPG5aafe1010875d_showers3.thumb.JPG.01f5ffc1527e2723f0f96628dad65354.JPG

temp.thumb.JPG.364e84e8b9411727d1eba51b878e22e9.JPGgfs_t2max_c_uk2_6.thumb.png.10009eba5d4d07dae38234af4c279a26.png

Cheers knocker.

Must admit im ready for some spring warmth now, sick of having to clear the deep snow off my driveway !!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Both the gfs and ecm are running with the scenario of the upper trough dissecting the ridge at T72 and running it a long way south to Iberia 24 hours later with the surface front on Friday struggling to traverse the country

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_4.thumb.png.5dd1219f8879aefaec9c3e019218ba3d.pngPPVK89.thumb.gif.85ec0f184e06762b533713d312a1bd35.gifecm_mslp_uv850_natl_5.thumb.png.20f06f1f51b5f5fb6539ce91e74d38be.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Overview

The pattern change will continue today and over the next few days into a more westerly orientated regime with the temp gradually rising to near average and the weather becoming more unsettled but having said that nothing drastic is afoot which a quick glance at the precipitation chart confirms, the western isles excluded.

gfs_tprecip_uk2_22.thumb.png.598270d56a650c4bf94bfae46053e014.png

So a bit more detail. Today will be a generally dry day with much lighter winds as the ridge becomes more influential There will be plenty of sunny intervals but patchy cloud in some areas as the front meanders south west with the odd rain shower thrown in. These will become confined to the north west later falling as snow on the high ground. Temps reaching a respectable 5-6C apart from in northern Scotland.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.24b4802b8cd6a96b9d6de40e0113ed62.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.ffd179f97e15d7e191f66d59da2e111c.gif

shower.thumb.JPG.c0b47b9ed0bdc47a5cff22179dbe6ec2.JPG5ab0907e7587c_shower1.thumb.JPG.26cdba484bb4e2f85c616f77195f22c7.JPG5ab09086b5a7f_shower2.thumb.JPG.c6965b0326da0a39b6f2999ba76f2c7c.JPG

5ab0911c9fdbe_temp1.thumb.JPG.2f53f6a81368f69d504d1b768683fdd6.JPG

Overnight more general rain and snow will encroach Scotland and N. Ireland whilst elsewhere will be dry with a slight frost developing in many places

5ab09274b93aa_shower3.thumb.JPG.989272e5270721c552e0bc93444b1e4d.JPGgfs_ptype_slp_eur3_6.thumb.png.45f9e730b1086c139d40a6e764fb4470.png5ab0928b29920_temp2.thumb.JPG.f217999dabfe365b6744fe877fb3d858.JPG

During Wednesday the fronts and rain will traverse the country although they will mainly impact the north with the south remaining dry.and the temp reaching the giddy heights of 7-8C.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_8.thumb.png.c950f3c4f2c6d32ef4cd7f78ea3e7544.png5ab0928b29920_temp2.thumb.JPG.f217999dabfe365b6744fe877fb3d858.JPG

By 1200 Thursday time to take a step back and appraise the situation and we find the upper ridge still hanging in there but under severe pressure from Atlantic trough(s) driven by the two energy flows emanating from northern Canada and the south east United States in particular  All of this resulting in a number of surface lows to the west of the UK with a front and associated rain over Ireland.

gfs_z500a_natl_11.thumb.png.262f0a37063c65190822b7e4be0dc076.pnggfs_uv500_natl_11.thumb.png.16b9c2b55f9b6498f39b37cb255eb0c5.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_11.thumb.png.c22b3bfb0945701ddbb951a0b52defc4.png

Overnight and into Friday the upper trough develops a negative tilt as it phases with the trough to the south east resulting in the surface front with patchy rain slowly moving east. The two energy flows still being quite well illustrated as is also, connected to this, the distribution of the cold/warm air.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_15.thumb.png.99aae8fce589546af3e7751101700215.png

gfs_z500a_natl_15.thumb.png.d2ddf04f3dc16601cb26de80cf867508.pnggfs_uv500_natl_15.thumb.png.0cca111b4e82eb3f5919a0e929662492.pnggfs_t850a_natl_15.thumb.png.5c19fc393a744df2537aed2af39f5345.png

By midday Saturday there is a rather complex upper trough arrangement splitting the high pressure leading also to a rather complex and indeterminate surface analysis resulting in sunshine and showers for the UK and temps now just about average.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_19.thumb.png.97487e4513e26ecd424db550ce1907b9.pnggfs_z500a_natl_19.thumb.png.82cb6226ad063221e7c435e00998b4ff.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_19.thumb.png.4ac5d16d026eac896f0f15d5c7e27c80.png

 

 

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

One development on the GFS 06 that differs from the 00 and the fax is the development of a low along the eastern seaboard cyclogenesis factory at T36 and tracking it rapidly around the high, deepening it rapidly as it goes, and impacting Biscay 48 hours later bringing a lot of snow to the Pyrenees.

PPVL89.thumb.gif.384aa60971028cec8cf8902dabb5fedc.gif

gfs_mslp_wind_atl_7.thumb.png.35e1163f47f4252e9da9800319e8bb68.pnggfs_mslp_wind_atl_11.thumb.png.cc03602258b2e86cfec7c64825802952.pnggfs_mslp_wind_atl_15.thumb.png.7c89cfc3edb32cf6bf93b59dfd2414b1.png

gfs_uv500_natl_13.thumb.png.5781e45ae4240db5daab5d81ca5721b8.pnggfs_t850a_natl_13.thumb.png.ff16d1389fa3d19487aa5f29d7c5e5aa.png

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Good morning k where is your analysis this morning. Do I have to check the models and work things out for myself? Come on lad little S can manage without you for 10 minutes!

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold
  • Location: West Sussex

Hope all is well knocker. Have missed your input today.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I'm fine thank you Katie

Today will generally be a fine dry day as a transient ridge moves east across the country but things are afoot to the west in the Atlantic. An upper trough is on it's way east around the Azores high pressure and the complex arrangement of surface lows and fronts are doing the same. Thus later in the day cloud, rain and strengthening southerly winds will encroach the west' Temps very near average.

gfs_z500a_natl_3.thumb.png.06e4712c93c3ef71874823122dd10960.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.ee7a56dc3ca676406f74f718282a9e65.gifgfs_ptype_slp_eur3_4.thumb.png.46337273af95bde591d974118fec7633.png

gfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.1cf98de70e35309828a058adf39b1a53.png

Through the night and tomorrow the fronts continue to track east initiating a very wet and windy bight in the west, clearing by morning when it will turn showery whilst the east clouds over with rain. As can be seen on the 06 and 18 charts the low associated with these fronts tracks NE/NNE and deepens at the same time whilst the little wave to the west is absorbed by the rapidly deepening low en route for the Bay of Biscay.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.ae536315ecaf28b1ad5300172b02366d.gifgfs_ptype_slp_eur3_6.thumb.png.39186b7f88b0fa457005657db55c7cfb.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_8.thumb.png.57c0cf5c65ac9ccae83f4f95a7ef85e3.png

This low is not without interest. At the moment it is just a wave forming SE of Newfoundland and from here it smarts tracking around the Azores high pressure but 24 hours later it engages with the jet and deepens rapidly as seen on the charts above. The straight line jet contains an 150kt jet streak with air diverging in the left exit in front of it which cause air to ascend with compensating convergence below.. This on occasion initiates rapid intensification of surface lows and this would appear to to be the case here. It can be seen to be absorbed into the main upper trough.

gfs_mslp_wind_atl_2.thumb.png.656bc8dd05e5ff070e4fc9189fe35489.pnggfs_mslp_wind_atl_5.thumb.png.98778b25e89c7ccced614c21a25117b8.png

gfs_uv250_natl_7.thumb.png.8295ea7e61f285ffd4add6e5894a1016.pnggfs_z500a_natl_8.thumb.png.624b3c24cbc4da66ba6cb9edf28ec95a.png

Anyway as this depression rapidly tracks south east bringing some quite inclement weather to the Pyrenees the UK is left in a fairly quiet showery day on saturday as the Azores ridges weakly NE with Scotland still in the westerly flow of the low pressure to the north  Temps still around average at 10-12C in England and a tad lower elsewhere.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_12.thumb.png.d916af076d22625c74f92a65851172fa.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.3a77321e113d8fe39c6eff75feb8aa81.png

Not much is different on Sunday with the UK in a light westerly giving sunny intervals with showers and temps still around average so all in all not a bad weekend for most.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_16.thumb.png.7e62aadebac329c7a24eea0e0af0ebd3.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.c56e45e5cae670c4d73ef229d871ce4d.png

But out west the two energy flows are continuing to put pressure on the Azores ridge as yet another twist to the evolution unfolds but that's for another day.

gfs_z500a_natl_17.thumb.png.8ca6ceec3f7efd62d357cff5ee78076f.pnggfs_uv500_natl_17.thumb.png.2b68185436f43ce74348e0daf19975e8.png

 

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The approaching fronts can clearly be seen on the 0540 satellite image along with the lingering rai/drizzle in the south east (Image courtesy of Dundee Satellite Receiving Station)

ch4.thumb.jpg.2f28b2de8f4a647b76d5491c9d3d07f5.jpgch13.thumb.jpg.e728e15995d986dd42e45933e233796b.jpg

 

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