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Short range model discussion - into 2018

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The ecm handles the low over the weekend somewhat differently to the GFS Still advecting the warmer air in, max of 15C and 12C on Sunday in parts of southern England, but the ecm version would be drier with a few showers on late Saturday/Sunday and less windy

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_3.thumb.png.325f4def51199af4a61108f9193b4af0.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_4.thumb.png.24972d5db8e2519376351c014244c582.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_5.thumb.png.40927d365ff39fb4de12fdf6975403bd.png

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Again at the risk of sounding like a stuck record there is little change with tonight’s anomalies. Still with the vortex lobe over NW Greenland and subsidiary NE North America with associated trough. And ridging in central America and still the block in the Labrador Sea area.

The strong sub tropical jet exiting the south eastern seaboard across the Atlantic running south of another lobe/trough orientated NW/W of the UK  resulting in the latter being in a south westerly upper flow This would suggest systems taking a more southerly track than normal but portending unsettled and perhaps quite windy weather for the UK with probably a southerly bias. There could well be a fair range vis temps, not only diurnally, bur also lattitudinally but generally not far from average. The usual caveats vis the detail

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.0a4c4a1dc5be687e0703f72c9d53a6dd.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.b60fb1377b9e9a3baf3902b7c6d3d436.png610day_03.thumb.gif.8b7ae3058735168761f5c83f6fd7a0c9.gif

gefs_t2ma_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.14bb9b88b47da68d6744d566b3baaeac.png

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Cloud poking it's nose into the SW already on the 2015 satellite image.There was quite a bit of interesting Ci, high Ac at dusk here.

ch4.thumb.jpg.608c1dec244cbd700e6492bdcc3de9f8.jpg

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Posted (edited)

A fairly benign start to the day in most areas apart from Scotland where there will be a a mixture of showers this morning, with some mist and fog patches but fronts associated with the deepening area of low pressure to the south west will bring patchy rain quickly into Cornwall this morning This will become heavier and more persistent and move north east across England and Wales during the day.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.78c9c6b8ca49ae7c4c4baf6efb5ace1d.gifoverview_009.jpg?2018030900overview_018.jpg?2018030900

PPVE89.thumb.gif.50297208f87c6124b04adb14889203f0.gif

The band of rain, perhaps some snow on the high ground in the north will continue to move north overnight and Saturday morning into N. Ireland and southern Scotland leaving cloudy and much milder conditions in it's wake although the cold front will bring some patchy rain into the south west Saturday morning. The milder conditions are worth another mention in the context of last week and the exceptionally cold thickness charts that the easterly produced compared to the tongue of warm air that the deep depression has advected up from the south over the weekend, albeit not quite reaching Scotland  By 00 Sunday the front and rain have cleared to the north east.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.5b886d15c55ea6704c2780726f7ad05a.gifoverview_036.jpg?2018030900gfs_thickness_natl_7.thumb.png.bdea23a9152e8519018b7d9639fad363.png

gfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.85f0dfd251da98cfad13bcf3b34af462.pngoverview_048.jpg?2018030900

Sunday and Monday there is a bit of a N/S split with the north staying relatively dry but the south windier with showers and maybe longer periods of rain as the filling low in the south west tracks east through the Channel

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_12.thumb.png.5b62b6000e611bc6018c39bcf68204d8.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_13.thumb.png.885b6fd77f8ed4728fdc7d66a0a92f93.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_15.thumb.png.bc3cd3a72ea571a0b6a76f66a9991aad.png

So by 1200 Tuesday we can take a step back and take an overview and, well,  fancy that. An upper trough just to the west of the UK, a block around the Labrador Sea and the jet zipping east from the south east US seaboard and a complex surface low pressure area in the eastern Atlantic with the next frontal system set to encroach the UK with more rain and strong winds after a transient ridge through late Monday into Tuesday.

gfs_z500a_natl_19.thumb.png.604aaf458f45741268cc0bb60e0beb73.pnggfs_uv250_natl_19.thumb.png.5bac4c398b81f74c5928dedf84c0ad57.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_19.thumb.png.0d40e6c1188caabf14fe5402db834268.png

 

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted (edited)

The 0500 satellite illustrating the gathering frontal cloud and showers over Scotland. (Courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving Station)

ch4.thumb.jpg.f36e48f612f41431219231d175e65d2d.jpgch13.thumb.jpg.e061093bbe0346b960a7a9714b3b901b.jpg

Edited by knocker
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The ecm still not in agreement with the GFS vis the handling of the complex two center low over the weekend albeit the north/south dry/showery split still pertains.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_3.thumb.png.1cfafc398c001359dd0e41d274f85ec3.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_4.thumb.png.b961385e59924f8896d317fd376463f8.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_5.thumb.png.b21f48a4dfb9f111b5dbe98a550ea0b1.png

And the 850mb temp anomaly and contours. Get in there Sidney!

ecm_t850a_5d_natl_6.thumb.png.d573be68b69e9321703d841c6d244cb2.pngsidney.thumb.jpg.2ce64f20bbcce86697a08ec3a7e2a547.jpg

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The latest NOAA 48 hour surface and 500mb forecast

A_48hrsfc.thumb.gif.c6a5860078821dec83db335b19fd9243.gifA_48hr500.thumb.gif.9d432aeb49f79b37780b5f36a0eaf4c2.gif

 

 

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The initial rain well into the south west. Satellite at 1015

PPVA89.thumb.gif.cf350ce7f8a92367b2054617048e7334.gifch13.thumb.jpg.29d120089324d6a7462eac5c4b4c7612.jpgoverview_012.jpg?2018030906

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The 1200 geostationary (Dundee Satellite Receiving Station) showing the major low to the SW and the much warmer air being advected in from this this evening.

geo.thumb.JPG.d4c6290f255ceca99116c349f338075d.JPGdew.thumb.JPG.7042f0f8dcec4b796ab32011e552cf7d.JPG

 

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Knocker ,great that you are giving us plenty of info ,thank you .Rain just arriving in my kneck of the woods ,i,v just seen a bumble Bee having a good hunt about .LOW pressure a plenty on the charts and i can see some action weather arriving on Mothers day with perhaps some Thunder which will be of interest .:yahoo:

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Classy game of two half's on the high res. Modis at 1400 (DSRS) and decidedly damp in these parts now.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.ca8e0a56f33e5c451b176a9e306e38ce.gifch38.thumb.jpg.52e5b53ab53d4d8154b4f64ab1c9e95e.jpg

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Tomorrow the belt of rain, perhaps some snow on the high ground, still affecting Scotland as it moves north. Elsewhere some patchy rain but clearer and much warmer in England and Wales behind the front and a very marked temp contrast.

5aa2b0e6d0876_rain1.thumb.JPG.bd536f510dad848a33d2c8e94d5337f3.JPG5aa2b0ec52214_rain2.thumb.JPG.d2f390a4eced601e66eb938c2d78712f.JPG5aa2b0f35f29e_rain3.thumb.JPG.dd73098dd1c2fbfd3df1d6915a06695c.JPG

5aa2b0fedb03e_temp1.thumb.JPG.3cb3910ff99d87738b1faa2b95c22684.JPG

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Posted (edited)

Some pretty high rainfall totals over the next 48hr for some..

Knockersthread.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted (edited)

This evening's 850mb temp anomalies and contours

ecm_t850a_5d_eur_6.thumb.png.90fd6701727ba2df6f4a7ee1116d8bce.png

This site has been down much of the day and pretty scarce obs at 1900 nut obviously still pretty wet in the south west south and Midlands

uk.gif?1520622595

Edited by knocker

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There is some movement of the anomalies this evening albeit not with complete agreement. Thus an intensification of the Canadian vortex lobe and slight adjustment east of the associated trough and the Labrador Sea block but the configuration of the latter rather depends on whether you believe the GEFS or the EPS as the former combines it with some ridging NW over northern Scandinavia.

Foreby all of hat there is still a strong westerly jet exiting the eastern seaboard across the Atlantic south of the subsidiary lobe and trough just NW/W of the UK resulting in a slack SW upper  flow over the UK. All of this portends low pressure and unsettled weather in the vicinity of  the UK with quite varied temps but generally around average. The usual caveats apply.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.bafe32758607cfc090647ccafd3038ad.pngeps_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.4a61265f374dd93966501744c7d90423.png610day_03.thumb.gif.bb5fd20685e5e7f3b215a9a9d8c79c55.gif

gefs_t2ma_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.251da618f80952daaf038af74241a48f.png

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Posted (edited)

I imagine the main areas of interest today, and a lesser extent tomorrow. will be precipitation, when and where, and the transient advection of much warmer air, courtesy of the large trough to our south west. that results in an unfortunate temp disparity between Scotland and further south.

gfs_z500a_eur_3.thumb.png.f2a41aeb3aae76913016433644e7fff3.pnggfs_thickness_eur_3.thumb.png.19fc50779c88a02d6d355cd8558036ed.png

So on to the detail

Fronts and associated bands of rain will continue to track north during the day so mainly cloudy but clearer eventually behind the cold front in southern England and Wales.but, as already mentioned, a marked temp contrast between Scotland and further south.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.e25a98fb999f3ca41f436610040dd56c.gifoverview_012.jpg?2018031000overview_018.jpg?2018031000

5aa362d5b1be6_temp1.thumb.JPG.8a29b8474a77152fdcfbf1700b5f315c.JPGPPVE89.thumb.gif.d8a7ab1bfe227d0fc344ec2f8e810f93.gif

Overnight the rain will take it's time clearing the far north of Scotland whilst elsewhere it will be rather benign with some mist and fog patches forming that quickly clear leaving a pleasant sunny day for many but the trough to the south west is still flexing it's muscles and the surface low impacts the south south west/south bringing some patchy rain by midday. The low continues to loiter in the Channel and the area of rain spreads further north and east.

gfs_t2min_c_uk2_7.thumb.png.6fb69b1c1667326d1e116303657b6176.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur2_7.thumb.png.9898882309244203668a0b2233683acd.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur2_9.thumb.png.cd2fc0458d8103b8abac1263dd27a46a.png

Through Monday the low continues to track east into the southern North Sea so intermittent rain still a features in much of the south of England whilst for a change Scotland remains reasonable dry and by now temps more or less just showing seasonal differences.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_11.thumb.png.e078370d165307b44d2254601e8ee1b8.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur2_13.thumb.png.dd30a0feab914a0402c0cbd70f5836b0.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_13.thumb.png.80af4400c315dbdf4291307e2bca2b72.png

Tuesday could well be the best day of the week as the UK finds itself in a col and a quite familiar pattern with the upper trough to the west, a block in the Labrador Sea area and the strong jet exiting the south east US and running a fair way south. This results in  inertia in the eastern Atlantic with the complex surface low pressure area associated with the upper trough very slow moving.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_15.thumb.png.d75082ab108f7da7569089d5c44bff7c.pnggfs_z500a_natl_15.thumb.png.aed0c8c71873c8dd4faa997a7f0635b2.pnggfs_uv250_natl_15.thumb.png.32c91eb02a3256719499917b9300ee1b.png

Thus Wednesday becomes unsettled with wind and rain as a deep low tracks slowly east and the associated fronts traverse Wales and England.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_19.thumb.png.1e7d012da4d4fe528b92cf8eebb9a5ed.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_21.thumb.png.c0e1e6ea7190fbff30a38ff657b229fe.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Satellite at 0430 and sparse 0600 chart at least showing moderate rain in the Midlands

ch4.thumb.jpg.f4a2b634575112d205a4ec9a94ccfdb1.jpgch13.thumb.jpg.165bdb9e592743cc116a5afc4cf93fdb.jpguk.gif?1520662197

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The ecm 850mb temp anomaly and contours

ecm_t850a_5d_natl_6.thumb.png.924bc48133d7a9afa6c9e71858454188.png

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The updated 0600 analysis

PPVA89.thumb.gif.0da7cd54bacc6cc6683c8f683e3645ba.gif

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Great posts again. Cheers Knocker.

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1 hour ago, knocker said:

The ecm 850mb temp anomaly and contours

ecm_t850a_5d_natl_6.thumb.png.924bc48133d7a9afa6c9e71858454188.png

EPS thereafter go very cold. 

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Satellite at 0950 and 1000 surface chart. I suspect the cold front is just through here

ch4.thumb.jpg.4f7c49fb64d16a7697d6cd3d4e614b95.jpgch13.thumb.jpg.e6fb038ab1205d726222afc63fc5ad01.jpguk.thumb.gif.2dd5582b7c5042367707cf6f8a3069ab.gif

 

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4 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Fronts all over the shop yet again.

NOAA keep it simple :)

A_sfc_full_ocean_color.thumb.png.b5b39449b3a8c17effe1c79684c92aec.png

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The 1200 geostationary (courtesy Dundee Satellite Receving Station) showing the cold front through the far SW and the 1200 surface chart. Should be a better day tomorrow for most.

geo.thumb.JPG.5d521ec70e39beb1c4ccdbe667f83947.JPG1200.thumb.gif.30ad433361ec5a03183103f442518ee4.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.e292521b8cbb4b27f9322cd1f5de18f2.gif

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