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Short range model discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Apropos nothing at all really but interesting to note that as the large depression tracks east to dominate the eastern Atlantic at the end of the week it allows the promotion of two more Nor'easters this week. A key feature remains the block in the north east.

gfs_ptype_slp_east3_9.thumb.png.2f9df4b68524fded2bb7612fc7328c04.pnggfs_ptype_slp_east3_17.thumb.png.20c99724198e3a8cd1a0e18a62d01652.pnggfs_z500a_natl_17.thumb.png.01234b15dec3e87e755e190582688b9d.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A quick break from the routine (Courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving Station)

European snowfall and Storm Emma - 1st Mar 2018

Snowfall continues across a large swathe of Europe. Storm Emma is centred off north-west Spain. Saharan dust blown off the North African coast drifts over the Mediterranean Sea, Sardinia, Corsica, the Tyrrhenian Sea, mainland Italy and the Adriatic Sea.

5a9eef13d3714_geosnow.thumb.jpg.66ecd289c84b8f493c8b3fef023e9eec.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

 

Little change with the anomalies this evening. Upstream a diffuse vortex NW Greenland to NE North America with ridging centrally and the block remaining around the Labrador Sea.

Thus with the Polar Jet zapped by the recent SSW the sub tropical jet exiting the south US across the Atlantic continues to be the main driver and thus systems taking a more southerly track to the trough in the eastern Atlantic. This portends a period of unsettled weather with low pressure dominating in the vicinity of the UK and temps near average but probably a fair variation

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.600c1e18037413699d1951bb85ad367a.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.727d3dba479b697a2f6e3c6a2f216248.png610day_03.thumb.gif.be90a588ad23ae0a42711e366d3b5270.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The upper trough and low pressure continue to dominate the eastern Atlantic and the UK over the period with the energy flow across the Atlantic being the sub tropical jet out of the southern US with systems thus tracking a little further south than normal.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_21.thumb.png.e9a1d40f3b16e3717c0b6ac64ce6b4ea.png

Today and tonight.

The rain, sleet and snow will finally clear the far north of Scotland and during the day the rain will also slowly clear the south east and East Anglia. This will the leave most places quite sunny with the odd shower thrown in but which may be heavier and of snow over the Scottish mountains. By this evening and overnight a frontal system will encroach from the west bringing a band of rain with it as it tracks eastward across Wales, the south west  and central and southern England. Still quite chilly under areas with clear skies.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.6cbb217a69274867ebd0a07d2ba322c9.gifoverview_012.jpg?2018030700PPVE89.thumb.gif.9907e185862f332eef6d0b69ffe88efa.gif

overview_030.jpg?2018030700gfs_t2min_c_uk2_6.thumb.png.fac4fcce34fbf9e11ca3956b9f571076.png

Thursday sees the system and rain clear into the North Sea leaving the UK with sunny periods and scattered showers but these may be more frequent and heavy in the north, Meanwhile the next major depression is getting organized away to the south west and it is this that is going to introduce rain and much warmer air on Friday/Saturday.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_8.thumb.png.cb79f8c0733f8cd0f37b5502fdf35051.pnggfs_t850a_natl_8.thumb.png.7a32bb169806583a080b1d08fa0a70b8.png

So Friday starts off in similar vein to Thursday with sunny intervals ans scattered showers but by evening rain from the warm front associated with the low is already impacting the south west and moving north across Wales and England with the noticeable warmer air  behind.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_11.thumb.png.0829da301290530c87b0c1345e403144.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_13.thumb.png.d787950deb180bcf14eed7de98a7df8c.pnggfs_t850a_natl_13.thumb.png.225094e5e68e5bbc5f72b859e39613c9.png

by Saturday the rain has spread north, perhaps snow on the high ground, with the frontal systems straddling the country and much warmer air over Wales and England with temps touching 13C.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.3f6300a563ac24e87f0033df6b67d969.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_15.thumb.png.7b863fe225f481c498fc14ac1b155976.pnggfs_ptype_slp_uk2_15.thumb.png.6d594d909ad6f34df0a9853ab193dfb6.png

Sunday sees the whole of the UK in the milder air but the analysis is quite a complex low pressure area dominating portending sunny interval and showers but best left here.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.0924fc03aaf6e69d1d3b955c89c05b7f.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_19.thumb.png.8cca231692236f5a1afea20bcd5f8cdc.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Further to an earlier comment that the end of the week low is still not a done deal the GFS has nodded towards the ecm but has deepened it considerable and is now 8mb lower than the latest fax as well so the comment still stands.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The high res. MODIS at 1210 showing the showers out west (fairly frequent moderate rain showers here) the trough down the spine of the country and the rain still hanging on in East Anglia

ch38.thumb.jpg.fc1b70fe005d79642fe8aa907da4c795.jpg

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A band of rain will track north eastwards later this evening and overnight perhaps falling as snow on high ground, and maybe to lower levels, in Wales and the Midlands

PPVE89.thumb.gif.198cf7ae0de9480321cd58e8c11472b6.gifoverview_015.jpg?2018030712overview_018.jpg?2018030712

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

GFS12z shows the cold polar air just to the north of Scotland over the next few days in a fairly stationary cyclonic pattern over the UK.

The first image being the Northern hemisphere view of the expected 850hPa temps. pattern at Friday 00z hrs. 

viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20180307;tim

 

By Saturday midday the colder air is shown stubbornly hanging on over Scotland whilst many areas of England and Wales are by this time basking in double figures in a warm sector of the frontal system from the next main low moving in from the south west.

Fax for Saturday midday.

fax72s.gif

GFS for the same time

viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20180307;tim viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20180307;tim

Those polar easterlies still blowing to the north with the boundary between the 2 air masses straddling the UK- a situation often seen in early Spring and which can instigate pronounced changes in temperatures.

Following on from tonight and early tomorrow's rain/snow band moving ne,covered by Knocker's post above, we have another wet interlude for Friday/Saturday as quite a widespread band of rain from the next system, shown on the above images, moves north and east turning to snow for a time over Scotland on it's leading edge as it comes into the cold air.

It's all go at the moment with the UK under the ongoing influence of the Atlantic trough.

 

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Again no significant changes with tonight’s anomalies and a lot of trop vortex lobes floating about. Upstream strong ridging in western N. America with a lobe NW Greenland and associated trough down the eastern seaboard and still the block in the Labrador Sea

A very strong westerly jet exiting the south east US running east and phasing with a another lobe/trough in the eastern Atlantic orientated just west of the UK, Thus systems tracking east further south than usual may impact the UK as the upper flow backs south of west. The detail as ever is in the hands of the det. runs but it portends some very unsettled weather albeit, although there may well be some large swings, temps only a little below average.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.92c6651f065d8eb5d3a230d2dc364a04.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.9a00698747e5aae50da0946b4d71529d.png610day_03.thumb.gif.a7b1b7d4f8c1a52446529655acfa068d.gif

gefs_t850a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.29f53919237b7308b7016a1e0af49050.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The system that produced last night's rain. sleet and snow on the high ground in Wales and the Midlands will soon clear away to the east leaving many places with plenty of sunshine with just a few showers that will be mainly confined to the south west. These will clear overnight but further snow showers may occur in the highlands. Elsewhere it will be a clear night leading to some fog patches in places and quite a widespread light frost.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.1fbaed326b560279698399e306e1fa52.gifoverview_012.jpg?2018030800PPVE89.thumb.gif.b508add662b62376be313a12b4939ebb.gif

overview_030.jpg?2018030800gfs_t2min_c_uk2_6.thumb.png.c0b3ae0a3939e2126ebd29806af5ac75.png

The mainly sunny scenario continues on Friday in most places but by 1200 the fronts associated with a complex low to the west of Cornwall 973mb have already brought heavy rain to the south west This belt of rain tracks north during the day and the fronts straddle Wales and the Midlands by 00 Saturday.as the complex low moves a little further east.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.30690e35b20f5d9b881209ade98c62ac.gifoverview_036.jpg?2018030800overview_045.jpg?2018030800

PPVI89.thumb.gif.2882645dcef28d8598dba4d60e858322.gif

Through Saturday the front continues to track north as little waves form on it and the rain may fall as snow on the high ground in Scotland leaving unsettled showery conditions in it's wake whilst the low deepens to the west. Apart from bringing wind and rain the system also introduces much milder air to the UK and at 1800 we are looking at max temps in the +13C range in England but still only 3-6C in Scotland.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_12.thumb.png.d3545adc2947eba667efb7d57ee251c6.pnggfs_t850a_natl_12.thumb.png.50e3a1b412d39fd587845e5a785abf41.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.4cba16652aaf987d0c2876000703cf92.png

On Sunday the rain/snow belt continues it's journey over Scotland whilst the filling but still deep low tracks closer to Cornwall riding the crest of a wave, so to speak of the jet exiting the south east seaboard , aided and abetted by the secondary flow from Canada running around the Labrador Sea block

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_14.thumb.png.8e966447a564c56f82957e9369b27d6c.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_16.thumb.png.f17088db796f47da45ecc18d71282e44.pnggfs_uv250_natl_16.thumb.png.9bcb4fe0ee49fb82c2839948f21970b9.png

The precipitation through this period is biased towards western England and Wales

gfs_tprecip_uk2_17.thumb.png.e05be6aa520cd3f8b3fcebba30befd0f.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A couple of spot checks on the weekend low from the ecm as it brings another front and more rain and wind into the south west later on Sunday. And the 850mb temp anomaly and contours

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_4.thumb.png.1da29788e5607f784e741860acf5f6af.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_5.thumb.png.dcbaf7674507b10af7a29e4eb8ce6621.pngecm_t850a_5d_natl_6.thumb.png.57c7f387784a7899bc51da1ccb3a7c75.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The next question is when will the rain arrive tomorrow? Quite early in these parts by the look of things but at least it will be warm rain and not freezing.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.d608a6e246e8c1a9c1484b3b06c6064a.gifoverview_024.jpg?2018030806overview_030.jpg?2018030806

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

We no sooner get the fronts out of the way Friday/Saturday but then the low itself swings into action over Sunday/Monday bringing more rain and strong winds to the south all under the auspices of the quite intense upper trough and the energy feeds exiting the south east seaboard.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_13.thumb.png.34d578ce5a318fcc3b8e8e566473a0b4.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_17.thumb.png.b345b8b6212cd694f59b87c3ddfbb118.png

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Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales

Knocker. Slightly off topic but I love your updates. Please keep em coming. I'm an avid weather watcher all year. 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm handles the low over the weekend somewhat differently to the GFS Still advecting the warmer air in, max of 15C and 12C on Sunday in parts of southern England, but the ecm version would be drier with a few showers on late Saturday/Sunday and less windy

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_3.thumb.png.325f4def51199af4a61108f9193b4af0.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_4.thumb.png.24972d5db8e2519376351c014244c582.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_5.thumb.png.40927d365ff39fb4de12fdf6975403bd.png

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