Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Short range model discussion - into 2018


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
37 minutes ago, Interitus said:

(whatever happens, Dydd Gŵyl Dewi Hapus!)

 

Huge thanks, and the same to you. :)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

BBC weather at 5:30pm still non-committal on tomorrow’s snow extent. Just shows again that snow forecasting is nearly always an on the day forecast to get an accurate picture.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

In the extremely short term ... I still think we might have a coldest March day record. Many stations hovering around minus 5C as a maximum temperature - minus 4.6 is the record

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Crisp Cold Days
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m

Very quiet in here given the uncertainty of the exact track of Emma.. Anyone got any new info? We already know the storm has tracked slightly further east but does anyone fancy putting all their eggs in one basket regarding their thoughts of how far north and east it will affect?? Seems a lot of uncertainty between models etc so just looking for a few second opinions.. 

Thanks in advance. TY. 

Edited by Yorkshirepudding
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
32 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

In the extremely short term ... I still think we might have a coldest March day record. Many stations hovering around minus 5C as a maximum temperature - minus 4.6 is the record

At 1800 Lake Vrynwy max -5.1C

Sennybridge -4.6C

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/18.html

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

In the short term the ecm det this evening shows a welcome return to near average temps albeit likely to be a N/S split which quite likely could also be the case longer term

ecm_t850a_5d_eur_6.thumb.png.1a7cc5abe7814356fa9eb8557396ddc2.png

Edited by knocker
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The 1950 METAR at Culdrose shows a temp of 0C which will be the max for the day as the temp has bee steadily rising over the last few hours. Also a gust of 51kts

eur_full.gif?1519936996

Edited by knocker
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

No major changes again with the anomalies this evening but some minor disagreements.

The same general pattern as previous with the secondary vortex NW Greenland, a trough in the SE United States and ridging in the NW Atlantic into the Hudson Bay area.  The slight intensification of the latter along with a similar trend to the trough aligned south across the UK results in a slightly more amplified pattern across the Atlantic and maintains the weak north westerly upper flow into the UK of air originating over northern Canada

This rather static scenario portends low pressure in the vicinity of the UK with the weather continuing unsettled and temps still below average albeit not excessively so and probably a fair latitudinal variation. The detail for the det runs to sort.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.4d50e5de0bd762c7951e74f38d5c5b32.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.9644e927ed567ad4493e432413fa61a4.png610day_03.thumb.gif.50b875897bdeabecd286c0e673d38def.gif

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
1 minute ago, Interitus said:

You missed the -5.2°C at Liscombe, Devon.

Put it down to age as I also forgot to add the 2000 surface analysis to the Culdrose METAR post, now done

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
1 hour ago, Interitus said:

You missed the -5.2°C at Liscombe, Devon.

And the English record for March was "only" -3.3C. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Time to take brief stock of the position today which is quite complex

At midnight the low is in the Bay of Biscay with the triple point south of the Brest Peninsula and a double warm front structure over southern England and in the Channel. Through the night these have continued to bring outbreaks of snow, freezing rain and rain to the south west and south with very strong winds winds, particularly in the south west where it has been gusting up to 55kts in Cornwall. A glance at the 00 soundings for Camborne and Herstmonceux quickly shows how the warm air has encroached and where the freezing rain is coming from

PPVA89.thumb.gif.bf7c5659cf2543968023aebe34f2d721.gif2018030200.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.df6487c4d62625058742f16aac4b5594.gif2018030200.03882.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.d3fc0c2f88e1f7ee65391691e7c6c853.gif

freeze.thumb.JPG.d103c96e435a4e8d2146c7f55b2ad87c.JPG

During the day the low has tracked north to be over the Scilly Isles at 1800 and the fronts have morphed into a wrap around occlusion which has tracked north into the Midlands along with another belt of snow which will affect Wales, Southern England and the Midlands and still very windy. Not forgetting in all of this conditions elsewhere, in particular the north east where conditions continue to be grim with a continuation of frequent snow showers and remaining very windy, and it goes without saying, bitterly cold as it does everywhere else apart from the far south west

PPVE89.thumb.gif.caf35433d96463cca97ecee14b843230.gifoverview_009.jpg?2018030200overview_015.jpg?2018030200

overview_021.jpg?2018030200gfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.4c4ebe634e447eb1f83d5a7f34363363.png

Coffee break

 

.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Continuing from the above by 00 Saturday the low is slowly filling and the patchy snow continues to track north on the occlusion and by morning another widespread hard frost and still feeling bitterly cold in the strong wind The scenario of snow showers in the north east and patchy snow moving erratically north continues through Saturday but the complex upper trough is complicating matters with it's associated surface lows impinging on the south west and later in the day further snow, sleet and rain will affect that area. And by now less cold in the south than recently (not that difficult)

gfs_t2min_c_uk2_6.thumb.png.0f4ba073e4b9c7a0fbfbac04526ef532.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.e98ee116b1bde132f771c7e050e8678e.png

gfs_z500a_natl_7.thumb.png.1e3672b244d29e7888121cef367257be.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur2_6.thumb.png.be1174ddb2c37460df29539019209ba1.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur2_8.thumb.png.99c7dc3555d4a33f4c4cf57191aeef41.png

Over the next three days low pressure will dominate over the UK and it will become less cold generally with the biting wind abating although still cold in the north where more snow is likely. Elsewhere unsettled weather with outbreaks of sleet, snow and rain at times

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_11.thumb.png.e6c80dda1a7c7ec744bb8f304ee3c330.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur2_15.thumb.png.2f779ca9be62f3cf33ebae0796ade51e.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur2_19.thumb.png.e8a9d475de2bfe3315eecba12dce02c1.png

gfs_t850a_eur_15.thumb.png.428d5ec90700b9b0e5ee48905c5e6aa0.png

This of course according to the GFS

Edited by knocker
  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
10 hours ago, Interitus said:

You missed the -5.2°C at Liscombe, Devon.

amazing values for March

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Interitus said:

You missed the -5.2°C at Liscombe, Devon.

Duh, stupid me, Liscombe is in Somerset of course.

It is worth noting that the six stations in Roger Brugge's list to record maxima below -4°C (four of which are still reporting the lowest temperatures now at -4°C) are all at relatively high altitudes -

Liscombe -5.2°C 348 metres

Lake Vyrnwy -5.1°C 360 metres

Sennybridge -4.6°C 307 metres

Dunkeswell -4.5°C 252 metres

Little Rissington -4.3°C 210 or 226 metres (two values in BADC station list)

Leek Thorncliffe -4.2°C 298 metres

Not sure where the line is drawn with regards high altitude sites.

From hourly data, some other notable values include Pennerley in Shropshire  -5.1°C at 357 metres

Libanus in Powys -5.2°C 331 metres

and possibly the winner (not English record of course) - Tredegar Bryn Bach Park in Gwent -5.8°C 380 metres

Obviously high altitude, Great Dun Fell -7.7°C 847 metres. I notice two hourly wind gusts there of 91 kt / 105 mph - one at -7.9°C for a -25°C wind chill. This lends some credibility to the image below, today probably not the best day to drive over the Hartside pass (580 metres)

hartside.thumb.gif.b7f42060f72ea6f1754bddf9017832c6.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

Despite the low surface temperatures (still around -2 C in my neck of the woods) has the upper air warmed a lot or become more laden with moisture? I ask this because I still have a very strong wind here which should be causing the existing lying snow to drift, yet it's not blowing about at all (plenty of drifts formed overnight of course). There's been no freezing rain either and the snow still seems powdery.

Apologies if this is vaguely off topic but given the experts who visit this thread it seemed like the best place to ask. :)

Edited by Buzz
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
41 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Duh, stupid me, Liscombe is in Somerset of course.

It is worth noting that the six stations in Roger Brugge's list to record maxima below -4°C (four of which are still reporting the lowest temperatures now at -4°C) are all at relatively high altitudes -

Liscombe -5.2°C 348 metres

Lake Vyrnwy -5.1°C 360 metres

Sennybridge -4.6°C 307 metres

Dunkeswell -4.5°C 252 metres

Little Rissington -4.3°C 210 or 226 metres (two values in BADC station list)

Leek Thorncliffe -4.2°C 298 metres

Not sure where the line is drawn with regards high altitude sites.

From hourly data, some other notable values include Pennerley in Shropshire  -5.1°C at 357 metres

Libanus in Powys -5.2°C 331 metres

and possibly the winner (not English record of course) - Tredegar Bryn Bach Park in Gwent -5.8°C 380 metres

Obviously high altitude, Great Dun Fell -7.7°C 847 metres. I notice two hourly wind gusts there of 91 kt / 105 mph - one at -7.9°C for a -25°C wind chill. This lends some credibility to the image below, today probably not the best day to drive over the Hartside pass (580 metres)

hartside.thumb.gif.b7f42060f72ea6f1754bddf9017832c6.gif

 

The current record is/was Cassley which is in the Highlands so presumably there's no altitude restriction. It's a bit arbitrary because stations come and go, and I don't think they homogenise. Nonetheless it seems likely that the UK, English, and Welsh records have all been broken.

Perhaps a daily CET too?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

 

The current record is/was Cassley which is in the Highlands so presumably there's no altitude restriction. It's a bit arbitrary because stations come and go, and I don't think they homogenise. Nonetheless it seems likely that the UK, English, and Welsh records have all been broken.

Perhaps a daily CET too?

Cassley in Sutherland, northern Scotland, is relatively low down at 99 metres - not very far from similar altitude Altnaharra (81 metres).

Good question about the CET - the provisional values go to Feb 28th at the moment, which at -3.8°C would equal the daily record from 1785

The coldest March 1st is -3.5°C from that same year, but the lowest March CET is an incredible -6.5°C from March 13th 1845

Edited by Interitus
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Morning all,

Overnight blizzard across SW England and Wales now clearing away to affect Ireland this morning, where Met Eireann has a status red for blizzard conditions for Galway, Leinster and Munster. The heavy snow sweeping NW overnight across SW UK and now Ireland associated with surge of moisture aloft ahead of (ex?) Storm Emma low off Brittany this morning, the surge of moist and relatively warmer air at height (though below freezing) marked by upper warm front on fax chart for 6am,

00_06z_020318.thumb.png.b540f987499cdb827e48b20cddb594e3.png

the moisture having its origins over the Azores looking at the PWAT loop since 00z yesterday., so a supply of copious amounts of moisture

loop_pwat.thumb.gif.c21d8904ad4aca6af8a23d1730577ee7.gif <------ click to animate

Very strong easterly winds overnight too, gusting to 67mph at RAF Culdrose in Cornwall, 66 mph at Aberdaron in west Wales. causing much drifting of large snow accumulations, reaching up to 50cm in south Wales, scenes of vehicles stranded for hours in snow drifted roads in SW and central south England.

Also issues overnight with freezing rain across southern coastal areas of England and more recently across Kent and Essex, where police have been closing sections of the M2 in Kent for ice glazing from rain falling on frozen tarmac and numerous crashes or cars into ditches elsewhere on the county's roads. 

A look at the 00z Herstmonceux (E Sussex) radiosonde ascent shows a layer of air between 800 and 900mb just above freezing if you trace the 0C line up, so this layer melting any light snow falling through into rain which when it falls on to frozen surfaces freezes. The less cold air from the south riding above temps below 0C at the surface and perhaps part of the weakening warm front shown on the fax chart above moving into S England and bringing the rain/drizzle or light snow well inland to W and N of London.

2018030200.03882.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.1c16b55e6e6ea2debbc30c838fbd61fa.gif

Freezing rain or drizzle could continue to pose a problem through the day along southern coastal counties and far SE including Essex coastal areas, as less cold air from the south continues creeps in aloft of surface easterly flow that is below freezing. Further snow is expected to organise and push up from the south along a cold front moving up from France this afternoon, the cold front becoming occluded as it continues north across England and Wales overnight, as the cold front overtakes the warm front with cool air to the south and cold air to the north. Snow tending to peter out as it heads north into central areas.

today.thumb.gif.8d6dcc44a001e2d1e25bee564507c809.gif20180302_24.thumb.png.90c886d81b55360b69ed06c4030eaab2.png

Scotland seeing further snow showers feed in from the north sea towards the east today, giving 5-10cm in places.

Staying on the cold side across the north this weekend, though not as bitterly cold, but still with snow showers affecting eastern Scotland on Saturday, drier and sunny across western Scotland. Further south across England, Wales and Northern Ireland  - generally cloudy with patchy sleet and snow spreading north through the day, though generally light, and snow becoming confined to northern England, north Wales and N. Ireland – tending to turn to sleet or rain across southern England and south Wales – as less cold air arrives from the south, leading to a thaw of lying snowSunday sees temperatures continue to rise across southern Britain, with some rain showers spreading in across southern England and south Wales, drier and brighter across central areas. Still cold across the north, with patchy sleet and snow affecting northern England, Northern Ireland and southern Scotland, snow showers across NE Scotland, while NW Scotland looks to stay mostly dry and sunny.

 

Staying cold across the far north early next week, with further outbreaks of snow at times for northern Scotland, sleet and hill snow for southern Scotland. For England and Wales, rain showers, perhaps sleet or snow over the hills in the north. Turning mild in the south.

 

Edited by Nick F
  • Like 6
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...