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Short range model discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
8 minutes ago, Soaring Hawk said:

As ever knocker thank you for your detailed input here.  As I'm about to go off grid to a small cottage literally on the Norfolk coast I've been keeping an eye on the models, just in case there was any risk of a north sea storm surge in the next few days - which would affect the little place I'm staying in (particularly the low lying little exit road inland).   Feel better having read your posts!

Have a good time on the Norfolk coast SH. Apart from a holiday on the Broads I've only stayed there once and was a few weeks at Hemsby on a radiosonde course 58 years ago. Good grief

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

Seems a bit of conflicting forecast for the rain on Sunday between the MetO and (BBC and GFS). MetO show the rain clearing the west Home Counties by midday whereas the BBC and GFS show the rain lingering all day!

Hope the MetO have a better handle on this!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The wind will generally ease somewhat this evening and overnight although still quite breezy for a while across n. Wales and n. England, the exception being the far north west of Scotland where it will pick up for a time this evening and in the early hours in the south west. The rain, currently Scotland > north west England > Wales will also ease for a time before more heavy pulses start tracking north east along the waving front from 2100 onwards.A very mild night over England and Wales.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The problem over Sunday appears to be the complex structure of the active front, linking to tropical storm Leslie over Iberia, which is likely to bring considerable more rain tomorrow, Thus the ecm doesn't have it crossing the country that quickly on Sunday

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Switching the gaze upstream for a moment and the combination of strong ridging in the north west and the Vortex /trough initiates a plunge of Arctic air down the spine of North America

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And confirmation of the very warm temps at 0600

06.thumb.gif.921781b7a5a69dca2047fb67b310748e.gif

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
8 hours ago, knocker said:

 

2049367968_maxs.thumb.png.ca8a21122eae236d54c1a4e5e7224742.png

 

Another example of not taking these charts too literally. Issued on the day and a good 2-4c wrong in a lot of places in the E/SE. These need improving!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The high res MODIS at 1300 and surface chart showing the little wave on the front over Ireland; moderate rain over same and the north west of England and temps up to 24C elsewhere

modis.thumb.JPG.d9e62393ce206658e007005d54c541da.JPG13.thumb.gif.54651b12ae77118fad5200ef1a57a1b9.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The front trailing down to leslie at 1500

geo.thumb.JPG.36b289e3b6ac61bc8506a7ed352e7d1d.JPG

Some easing of the rain this evening, and overnight, apart from the NW of Scotland before the next pulse arrives in the south by the early hours.

p21.thumb.png.02ae5d6ee532ef95d78b84522e50c37a.pngp00.thumb.png.d566d58fe4fea6a0dec96422d851835b.pngp05.thumb.png.b7e9744a9653429e9f8d338e32ef74ac.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

After the last couple of days the outlook is for a drier and calmer period of weather, albeit still changeable, and with temps cooling a tad. This is indicative of a pattern change that has been suggested for a while which is essentially losing the block to the east and thus with a ‘flatter’ flow across the Atlantic but this modified by the subtropical high playing a more influential role.

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Back to the surface chart for midnight and the Albermarle and Castor Bay soundings which illustrate the different airmasses and perhaps a sign of things to come. The front(s) are very adjacent to the former but the latter  is behind them

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With the fronts running down the country it's been pretty cloudy over much of England and Wales with the south east remaining quite muggy, albeit much of the heavy rain has ceased. but the next pulse of rain duly arrived in the south west in the early hours and will track north east during the day but becoming very light and patchy as it also moves very slowly east. Much cooler in the south east, apart from the extreme tip, under the cloud.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.7c09a97b6a87c068e8804d7fd7578501.gif590217672_maxs.thumb.png.ac2965673e24337c02e3ff7fe2386221.pngp09.thumb.png.217d53054c51229cf1263ecac11a35bd.png

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Of course it's too simplistic to think that the front will now clear to the east. It is still quite active and stretching from north Norway to north Africa and another wave forms over France which initiates another pulse of rain into central southern England during the early hours of Monday

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This patchy rain will duly track north and effect much of central and northern England and even Wales through Monday whilst the west/north west will have much brighter weather and even in the far south east where the cloud clears it will be quite warm again

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Overnight and through Tuesday the patch rain dissipates as the front weakens and it becomes quite warm, particularly in the south east, but the next quite intense Atlantic low is swinging north west of Scotland and the associated fronts will bring strong winds and rain to N. Ireland and the north west.

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.c21b64b62b2f4b2805e5adb08428aef0.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.eddd5aa8ce62265d0d702220a00b8306.gif

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By Wednesday the low is NE of Iceland and the front has struggled south east introducing cooler air into the north west

PPVM89.thumb.gif.e968280b3ed934fda2a344fd7d7d2b3e.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.5f29b9d0549427ceb8efa3a79c479a34.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.7a8738b51d89f294d50e07a6dbcb22d7.png

By Thursday the weakening front has just about cleared the south coast as the ridge becomes more influential and the cooler temps are in situ

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And the NH profile at T120 and perhaps just an indication of where we came in

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.8cb9b26149880c95b1eaf99e59e3f526.pnggfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.2470af748af5fd0cbc65d0a7f40a7395.png

 

 

 

Edited by knocker
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23 hours ago, knocker said:

 

Not sure why it's tagged you from your post 23 hours ago lol! 

Wouldn't be suprised to see a met yellow warning for rain parts of the south and south east this morning. 

The high RES models introduce what looks like the left overs of Leslie moving north and brining more rain or is that a surface low that develops in within the complex fronts moving over us? 

Either way, it looks like it comes up against the block to the east and goes nowherw fast with tomorrow now looking wet to. 

 

Edited by Surrey
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
22 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Not sure why it's tagged you from your post 23 hours ago lol! 

Wouldn't be suprised to see a met yellow warning for rain parts of the south and south east this morning. 

The high RES models introduce what looks like the left overs of Leslie moving north and brining more rain or is that a surface low that develops in within the complex fronts moving over us? 

Either way, it looks like it comes up against the block to the east and goes nowherw fast with tomorrow now looking wet to. 

 

Yes definitely looking very wet some places particularly the central part getting potentially over 40mm of rain by the time the rains all cleared. But atleast it’s much drier next week

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
31 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Not sure why it's tagged you from your post 23 hours ago lol! 

Wouldn't be suprised to see a met yellow warning for rain parts of the south and south east this morning. 

The high RES models introduce what looks like the left overs of Leslie moving north and brining more rain or is that a surface low that develops in within the complex fronts moving over us? 

Either way, it looks like it comes up against the block to the east and goes nowherw fast with tomorrow now looking wet to. 

 

As far as I can see it's a little wave forming on the front, which effectively slows it down, as Leslie fills over northern Iberia and the remains of Michael sink over Coruna.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
21 minutes ago, knocker said:

Apart from the extreme south east temps way down under the cloud and rain

modis.thumb.JPG.c08c877f5fb4628d06139f256a2b7fab.JPG14.thumb.gif.235ee5842f2004feeecd8b52c8cefa21.gif

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Yes some 12c lower here than this time yesterday, from way above average to way below via the best part of an inch of rain.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

There appears to be a strengthening consensus regarding the upcoming pattern change so my comments from yesterday morning vis the outlook remain penitent. By the end of the short range the subtropical high should be taking more of an interest so calmer and drier weather  likely albeit there is still a lot of energy exiting upstream across the Atlantic putting it under pressure.

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The 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

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A cloudy start to the day over much of England and Wales and the far north west and the rain in southern parts, that has eased for a while, will pep up again as more pulses run up the waving front which is still in close proximity. Elsewhere not a bad day with some sunshine with maybe the odd shower in the north west of Scotland.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.dbe502c24df25a0894568550c48eea01.gif89300670_maxm.thumb.png.874ad13afe01bff9f080808f98a4d17d.pngp09.thumb.png.71d734b26fac8405cdf0e9c7ce5b9652.png

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During the evening and overnight the heavier rain will cease with just some patchy drizzle as this and the cloud edge north  So a relatively mild night in southern and central areas.

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This cloudy and damp weather will likely persist through the day in much of en gland and Wales although where the cloud breaks, in the south east for example, it will be quite warm But the fronts associated with a deep depression that's swinging north west of Scotland will bring rain and strengthening winds to N. Ireland and western Scotland by midday and the rain will move south east during the afternoon.

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Overnight and through Wednesday our old friend the waving front has finally departed north east leaving the fronts associated with the low to continue to struggle south east, Thus patchy rain/drizzle across central parts with cooler and the odd shower in the north west.

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The pattern over Thursday and Friday really epitomizes my opening comments with a strong jet driving Atlantic systems north east as the ridge builds from the south west over the UK

gfs_uv250_natl_17.thumb.png.053693590d99237cc96173fb3e3e5be7.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.25bb9afaa3fd9e9fa9200004e4a50794.gifPPVO89.thumb.gif.0f79e019b06933a8e8820e1e4fd32b70.gif

Thus a sunny and dry day on Thursday after a frosty start and much the same on Friday except for the north west where there will be patchy rain and strengthening winds as a frontal system is driven across Scotland,

gfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.2acb821b66afb5b9bd87911e3d43da36.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.18af37c1cdeed4b7c927f5a2c94701c4.png

And so on to the NH profile at T120 which is not a million miles from where we came in

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.bd182df58acf303e5eaee12250120289.png

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