Short range model discussion - into 2018

[knocker]

[knocker]

As expected not looking brilliant on the 0900 geostationary image

[knocker]

At 1400 the rather innocuous low is over south west Ireland with heavy rain over N. Wales and northern England. But ready for the rapid intensification as by 0600 tomorrow it is 977mb east of Dundee

[knocker]

As the low deepens and tracks into the North Sea this evening and tonight the wind will pick up in the southern and western quadrants.

And the main wodge of rain and the cold front

 

[knocker]

Arctic plunge into Europe, and later north Africa

Edited September 20, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Outlook - remaining unsettled for the next three days and then a rapid transition to a period of quieter and cooler conditions.

The NH profile and surface analysis at midnight.

Storm Bronagh is now just in the North Sea

so the strong winds in the southern and western quadrants are abating, albeit still very breezy across much of England and Wales, but for a few hours this morning some very strong winds will effect the north east coast as Bronagh clears the mainland. A wodge rain still effecting the north east and northern Scotland as the front loops around but the cold front which brought some lively and wet conditions overnight has cleared the south east. Thus today the UK will be in a fresh north westerly/westerly with frequent showers, including hail and thunder in the mix. Which will tend to become more concentrated in the north west as the day progresses

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Overnight the winds will abate in many areas and the showers fizzle out, with western Scotland being the exception so a clear quite chilly start to Saturday bot cloud and rain associated with the next frontal system will reach the south west by early morning and will move north east through the day, Dry and sunny north of the rain belt apart from western Scotland where showers will persist.

So through the rest of Saturday and Sunday the complex wave/frontal system continues to track across Wales and southern England thus a very wet night and Sunday and it again could be very windy in some ares with possible the south east bearing the brunt as the system exits east.but  even at this range uncertainty persists regarding this.

By Monday high pressure that has been edging in from the west behind the last system is in control with a much quieter day in the offing, albeit quite cool with some air frost and fog patches first up.

A not dissimilar day on Tuesday with the centre of the high cell moving east.

And the NH profile at T120

[knocker]

This morning's fax updates Sat > Sunday and the ecm. Could be quite windy adjacent to the south coast on Sunday with briefly some nifty gusts in the far south east late afternoon.

[Sky Full]

Looks a bit breezy in your neck of the woods Sunday afternoon, Knocker, according to the ICON 0Z....

The short term models still disagree on the exact track and intensity of this depression.  Will it be named Callum later today?

 

Edited September 21, 2018 by Sky Full
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[knocker]

1 hour ago, Sky Full said:

Looks a bit breezy in your neck of the woods Sunday afternoon, Knocker, according to the ICON 0Z....

The short term models still disagree on the exact track and intensity of this depression.  Will it be named Callum later today?

 

Actually it's been a bit breezy this morning with one very violent shower and some impressive Cbs around. Quite a dramatic geostationary image at 0900 UTC

 

[Sky Full]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Actually it's been a bit breezy this morning with one very violent shower and some impressive Cbs around. Quite a dramatic geostationary image at 0900 UTC

 

That captures the energy in the circulation very clearly.  We also have showers and a stiff gusty breeze this morning but the afternoon is meant to be dry and sunnier.  Plenty of rain expected over the weekend though, especially in central Wales and the Midlands it appears.

[knocker]

High res MODIS at 1134 UTC and midday chart

[knocker]

Interesting midday sounding at Camborne. Not at all sure I can account for it but we do have an almost total cover of interesting Ac ans Cs. Pretty strong jet of 140kts

Edited September 21, 2018 by knocker

[carinthian]

Nice shot of the hefty shower clouds moving through the Cheshire gap. Forward clouds of the incoming Atlantic system already showing towards SW  England ( think )

C

[knocker]

An example of the interconnectivity of systems. A cut off low is created at T36 away to the south west and boosted later as a another upper trough tracks east and by t120 the very active low pressure area to the north east of Iceland is connected to the aforementioned low by a surface front that brings rain to Scotland.

Edited September 21, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

This weekend sees the last throw of the dice of the recent wet and windy period before the rapid transition to much more benign spell. Although for a change it will be the southern regions of the UK that will feel the brunt and how far north the rain will reach is still undecided.

The NH profile and surface analysis at midnight.

A fairly quiet night and start of the day apart from western Scotland where blustery showers still persist but cloud from the system approaching from the south west is already quite extensive over much of England and Wales

with frontal rain just about into the south west This rain will spread north, probably no further than a line N. Wales > Wash, reaching the east coast by early afternoon.Generally a pretty cool day.

Through the evening and the first part of the night the rain in the south should stop, perhaps some intermittent drizzle, but by 0300 Sunday more persistent and heavier rain encroaches from the south west and tracks east through the day, not clearing the south east until early evening.but further west during the afternoon.The rain will be accompanied by some strong winds, perhaps coastal gales, in particular in the south east as the system moves through. Meanwhile north of the rain belt will be dry apart from the usual showers in western Scotland Another chilly day

By Monday high pressure is in control with chilly mornings and air frost the order of the day but not unpleasant with plenty of sunshine and light winds

High pressure remains in charge over Tuesday and Wednesday so chilly mornings remain a feature but it's worth remembering that there is still a lot of energy exiting North America and the strong jet is forced around the high cell initiating a cold plunge into central and eastern Europe

So generally Tuesday and Weds a quite pleasant couple of days and getting a tad warmer but showery rain will effect N, Ireland and northern Scotland courtesy of a front that trails all the way from the complex low pressure area north east of Iceland to the low way down to the south west, as mentioned in a post last evening

 

 

 

[knocker]

This mornings fax chart for 1200 tomorrow has the wave a tad shallower and further east and south And the ecm weds at 0600

Edited September 22, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Plenty of moderate rain around in central and southern areas on the 1500 chart.

This will clear to the east during this evening and through the night leaving the south cloudy, with perhaps the odd patch of drizzle, whilst clearer and much cooler further north with showers continuing across western Scotland and N. Ireland. But by 0300 the next batch of moderate rain is already encroaching the south west and this will track east with the shallow wave clearing the south east by around 1500 leaving clearer weather with the odd shower in it;s wake. It could be quite breezy along the south coast and particularly the south east corner as it clears.

Edited September 22, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Briefly some quite chilly air at the back end of the wave tomorrow and then 24 hours later a cool plunge over Europe.

[knocker]

[knocker]

Today is the last day of the unsettled period before high pressure and a more benign period becomes established for the rest of the week. But as ever the position and orientation of the high cell is critical vis regional variations of temperature and cloud'

The 500mb and surface analysis at midnight.

A fairly cloudy night over much of England and wales but clearer further north leading to quite a widespread of temps as can be seen on the 0300 chart but a relatively dry night for all..

But rain, quite heavy at times and already into the far south west. will track east across Wales and central southern England to clear he south east by mid afternoon. It will be accompanied by freshening winds which could well reach gale force for a time across the south east as the wave clears. Elsewhere frequent heavy showers over N. Ireland and western Scotland and later further south down western areas.

By Monday the high cell is centred over south east Ireland so quite a pleasant day with light winds but perhaps some showers in north west coastal regions.  But there is still a lot of activity further west in the Atlantic and a front will bring cloud and patchy rain to the north by evening.

With regard to the activity out west sees an upper trough dropping some quite cold air a fair war south

which is reflected in the surface analysis on Tuesday with fronts running along the thermal boundary and creating a NW/SE split over the UK with a freshening wind and patchy rain, as well as being much cooler, in the  north west.

The split continues on Wednesday with fronts straddled across Scotland with some patchy rain whilst sunnier further south but still generally quite a warm day.

A not dissimilar day on Thursday with a front straddling central Scotland and linking away to the south west to a cut off low created by the aforementioned trough. Some marked temp differences either side of the front with it being quite warm further south.

The NH profile at T120

 

[knocker]

The 0600 analysis and chart

 

[knocker]

The 0900 geostationary image. A partial clearance here.

And

[knocker]

High res. MODIS at 1300 UTC

[Rocheydub]

On 23/09/2018 at 14:56, knocker said:

High res. MODIS at 1300 UTC

Hi knocker, your lack of posts is kind of worrying! Hope all is well.

[knocker]

5 hours ago, Rocheydub said:

Hi knocker, your lack of posts is kind of worrying! Hope all is well.

Thanks for your concern Rocheydub. As t happens I've been lousy over the weekend with another flare up of psoriatic arthritis but now back on the steroids so feeling much better relatively speaking. Hopefully a hospital consult today. Meanwhile I'll cobble something together today as it's a quiet period.