Short range model discussion - into 2018

[Soaring Hawk]

Dear Knocker and phil nw,

Thank you so much for the regular informative posts and the time obviously taken to provide such an excellent analysis with the detailed graphics. This is my first port of call every day and I’ve learned so much from the way your updates are presented.

In my strange little head I always think of this as the Sidney Serenity Short range Sanity Sanctuary, not just in weather model terms but as a therapeutic short term fix when I stray into The Other Places..

I do hope your incredible commitment continues through 2019 Knocker - we are very lucky you’ve invested so much time and effort for us. Thank you and best wishes for a happy 2019. 

[phil nw.]

Thank you for the above SH.I can't commit to posting as regularly as Knocker has until recently but i will pop in here when i have the time.As for Knocker(Malcolm)i hope he returns as many appreciate his informative posts.

Anyway today sees the low with fronts currently near Iceland whipping quickly across towards Norway by tomorrow

As it comes south the front will become quite weak with any rainfall light and sporadic before clearing the south coast Tuesday night.It will bring some clearance to the persistent cloud and somewhat colder air although the main thrust of this goes down the North sea into Europe.

Some images from the GFS run

Thereafter the high settles down pretty much over us for the rest of the week

Thursday

so some colder nights this week and lower daytime temperatures too to below normal with frosts and possibly fog under some clearances,although some coastal districts around the periphery of the high may see more cloud at times. 

 

[phil nw.]

As expected T 24hrs shows the clearer,colder air over the UK behind the cold front.

with the high settling over the UK for the rest of the week.

By Saturday UKMO at T96 shows the high centred over Southern UK

so very little movement in this main feature affecting our weather,essentially dry rather cold with broken cloud and night frosts for many.Just a hint that the far north and west will pick up the Atlantic air by then as the high eases that bit further south so becoming less cold and clouding up.

[The PIT]

Pretty naff runs all round this high needs the boot but sadly it seems to moving in for a while yet. Looking at the met offcie local forecast generally shows a brief period of cold weather before recovering to just a shade below normal. However since we are not used to these values it will feel on the cold side. The main thing I notice is the lack of rain which if the carries on will start to worry the water companies.

[phil nw.]

Looking pretty dry for the rest of the week as the high now building over us behind the cold front looks to be a slow moving feature.

fax for 12z today and Saturday

There is cloud around especially towards eastern and central areas today and we are likely to be chasing this around over the next 3/4 days. It looks like there will be some clearer spells and where these occur some quite sharp night frosts will be experienced in the colder air now across the UK.

T24hrs GFS 06z

Later in the week the north looks like picking up some south westerly influence as the Atlantic fronts ease close around the edge of the high so becoming a little milder up there whereas most places remain on the cold side until the week end.

 

Edited January 2, 2019 by phil nw.

[Dorsetbred]

Any chance of a thread title update as it says ...Short range model discussion - into 2018 even if we don't go for a new thread?