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Short range model discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
10 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

Hi Knocker,

Thank you so much for all your efforts on this thread this year. I’m a landscape gardener so always need last minute weather updates - I always come to this thread as you  do your summaries so early in the morning! As much as I enjoy the hunt for cold thread, this thread is much more ‘useful’ for me. 

It's good to hear you find it of some use SW. thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
5 hours ago, knocker said:

Much milder air into the south

09.thumb.gif.f938a3f41843d8bddab3ec6eef36ae2c.gifPPVA89.thumb.gif.6a49ad2c74b1246b5afbcf68634ee700.gif

Yes a thoroughly damp,dull and miserable day here under those fronts. 

Hopefully we start to clear up by tomorrow under the building high

fax36s.thumb.gif.b2830a0d8ee5c3ffad98a020ab031b81.gif

Just some drizzly bits around the south west,maybe by then as the fronts weaken.

I add my appreciation of your informative and helpful posts in this part of the forum Malcolm and wish all the very best to you and yours over Christmas.:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Cheers Phil and all best to you and yours as well

i was just going to post this when I hadn't seen your post but I might just as well carry on with it.

A fairly widespread frost in the morning north of the Midlands but cloudy further south and the patchy rain/drizzle will take a while to finally clear the south coast

PPVE89.thumb.gif.db18d165c5fe2c34136a1d65ebf2b548.gifmin.thumb.png.a580b875feb7cd670337b80f91540ddb.pngp21.thumb.png.143bc716e8b0056cd75ca8bdb1aa6561.png

p03.thumb.png.599416daa7507f395c301ec529a5784d.pngp08.thumb.png.4a1469fde9e725122862af779cb0446f.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Outlook - the start of a benign period of weather with light winds and mainly dry but regional variations vis cloud and temp.

The midnight surface analysis and the soundings for Camborne and Albermarle

PPVA89.thumb.gif.b61bfe310805731d16c058574c4b0b7b.gif2018122400.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.3f67d444faac057d385e495f1ec2d402.gif2018122400.03238.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.154cf6e9ccd695a6c62f7d6f4100aa09.gif

The soundings illustrate the different airmasses and this is the story of the day. Many areas will start the day quite chilly with a fair bit of mist and fog around

04.thumb.gif.8c730ff425d83dbf4195ec700b67535f.gif

and this may well linger in some places but generally it will clear to give sunny day with temps a tad on the cool side The exception being the south, particularly the south west, where the warm front is still lingering thus milder here with patchy rain and drizzle, probably hanging around much of the day. One way or another this front and the associated low in the Atlantic are going to have some influence for most of the period and by midnight, as the pattern continues to develop, it is orientated across N. Ireland and the south west.Thus a continuation of cloud and drizzle in western areas whilst low cloud and fog/mist are widespread elsewhere.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.a3a1c24187add6dbc8dccf850a9a874a.gifgfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_4.thumb.png.206206eed9110fbac8c46e76e1c9eca2.pngvis.thumb.png.df0d93552b9e764bb0b5837ca0ebeac8.png

Not a lot of change on Xmas Day as the weakening warm front moves slowly east thus still cloudy with patchy drizzle in the west with sunny intervals in the east if, and when, the mist/fog clears  Quite a mild day with temps a tad above average.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.ec5ed0fc77f6d681f7bea2b4a9d95f23.gifgfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_8.thumb.png.4db5a591f9a1b80cf50961601c32da23.png

Overnight and through Wednesday the previously mentioned Atlantic low has now tracked north east across Iceland taking the warm front rather quickly east into the North sea but leaving the waving cold front trailing across central Scotland. Thus a generally cloudy day, perhaps some sunny intervals further south but patchy rain over Scotland. Temps still a tad above average

PPVI89.thumb.gif.373780a411aab968507fb492a11629a4.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.8bfbe3db8d7334ea84bf309c5029a3b3.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.9abe4eea40f713caae5835940ce7d92b.png

A similar story on Thursday as a another front slips south over Scotland thus more persistent rain here, particularly along western coasts

PPVM89.thumb.gif.7671cd092fccf1b4e6294b1533a1296b.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_15.thumb.png.4538c8b5ed2de4d47f4095f2b912697d.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.89e9630c85c2be34a9ce63bb4e08272e.png

But whilst  things are relatively quiet in the UK the Atlantic is still active and a cold front associated with a complex upper tough is forced east to bring more persistent rain the N. Ireland and western Scotland on Friday. It should be noted the gfs develops the wave on the cold front rather more than the fax.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_19.thumb.png.1133f073c3cc5cdb321a2715665a22f4.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.09cc5b80f2b180f5a6efff562d3e0cf7.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.4cc084ae7141fcd6d3669699f8fa662c.png

The NH profile at T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.a8e45a7e29d9b031d6f2788bd3138cf9.pnggfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.1d1a43407f7e77992230316994bf34b7.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Not a huge amount to discuss so keeping the waffle brief. It's very much a west/east divide this evening and overnight. Cloudy in many areas, particularly in the west of the country as the weakening warm front realigns. But this also ensures the temperature remains much higher than in the east and it's here that fog, already starting to form, will be fairly widespread.It will be dense in some areas so take care if you are out and about.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.bbe5f8ec1b3205f595e700d1f88a7ca0.gifmin.thumb.png.39df3340d718ac34109cb613956b86ca.pngvis.thumb.png.de3f796acffe14b39cac1b884d1c711d.png

966682495_visoo.thumb.png.d6f4433ea087d5f06529254e99e5066b.png270085395_vis05.thumb.png.93c608ad1058fd6cf270c9a38aa5cc61.png

And may I take this opportunity to wish all of those in the other thread a happy New Year and sincerely hope to all get what you so richly deserve.

sun.thumb.jpg.29376515e3b430a17bbac215ccf30c0e.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Cheers Lottie

Outlook - A quiet period with high pressure in charge with low cloud and fog being the main issues.

The NH 500mb profile and the surface analysis for midnight and the 0400 synoptic chart for the UK

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.bc87f5317efdddb0408f1bf2b5f95b01.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.89e3fb5c04e8da8729ed59a1c09cf1b1.gif04.thumb.gif.a304d2f42cae474a57b334bc40a4963a.gif

Very much a west/east divide at the moment with the warm front bringing cloud, patchy drizzle and much warmer air to the west whilst it is much colder in the north and east with mist and fog quite extensive, This will hang around in some places otherwise quite sunny but cloud will spread from the west during the day thanks to the developing wave in the Atlantic tracking north and dragging the weakening warm front east. Where the cloud breaks, particularly in the south west it will get quite warm with temps in the 12-13C range.

Much the same story this evening with a lot of low cloud, mist and drizzle around particularly on the higher, and fog still likely in the south east. Later in the night some rain will impact north west Scotland as the cold front is quite adjacent. All in all a fairly mild night,

PPVE89.thumb.gif.589ca89bdba2594840c98d48ea392364.gifp04.thumb.png.17e4b9f1844628f58988b15af6315b46.png

And this basically the story for Wednesday, Cloudy and feeling quite warm, particularly in areas where the sun breaks through, but still some outbreaks of rain in the north west of Scotland from the cold front.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.0c27d1bb7178cc73ab5f187e1528f643.gifgfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_8.thumb.png.a083c58be2f1598701fbc9a6600a6ae2.png

Overnight Wednesday and through Thursday the weakening cold front does finally track south east so some patchy rain over N. Ireland, Scotland and the north of England whilst further south, cloudy with sunny intervals.

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.22a2f616db3953fe459e9eb8424e36cb.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.183731e080cf7808d1fc973ae0348669.gifgfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_12.thumb.png.daf5a826932ff7293f222ee1266642bf.png

But not to forget there is still a major upper trough in the Atlantic with an 150kt jet exiting the eastern seaboard so it's no great surprise that a frontal system manages to track north east overnight Thursday bringing rain to much of the north Friday morning before clearing during the afternoon. Temps still above average.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_13.thumb.png.064bc19c0f0aac7ce5c92b99a538cb4f.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.10b621d83e76349146a94893dc609143.gif

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_15.thumb.png.0ad05bbf4be7187f284e93fa8853ed4f.pnggfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_15.thumb.png.7ccc55e26e18f170c431c986608babf0.png

A repeat performance on Saturday as another system runs north east on a strong upper flow to bring more  rain to N. Ireland, Scotland and the north of England.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_19.thumb.png.8743fd5a293199fd74292818fd8d4396.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.a1464c03c3cfa0c2ebb0b980b9c22d61.gif

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_20.thumb.png.e247769df0237811209a18d48380126d.pnggfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_20.thumb.png.5bea12dd9a8f55cd1214b1019c7cbff0.png

And the NH profile at T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.782bb439c10fcdbce45399e949ba383c.pnggfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.8d7a0a76186cbd0ac219c9b103186f4d.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Happy Christmas Knocker!

Thanks for providing sanity amongst an ocean of hysteria this past year on the MOD threads.

Edited by Radiating Dendrite
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

As ever k many thanks from me for providing a daily (usually) update that is my first call on here.

Happy Christmas k and don't forget that damn squirrel of yours for some tasty morsels.

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

As ever k many thanks from me for providing a daily (usually) update that is my first call on here.

Happy Christmas k and don't forget that damn squirrel of yours for some tasty morsels.

NO, NO, NO!  Don't EAT the squirrel!  Just give it some nuts!   Happy Christmas Knocker and thanks from me too for the very varied and always useful information you provide in 'Knocker's Thread' (as I call it).  Hope to see you carrying on the good work in 2019, whether we get any white stuff or not.  It's all weather to me......

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
4 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

NO, NO, NO!  Don't EAT the squirrel!  Just give it some nuts!   Happy Christmas Knocker and thanks from me too for the very varied and always useful information you provide in 'Knocker's Thread' (as I call it).  Hope to see you carrying on the good work in 2019, whether we get any white stuff or not.  It's all weather to me......

 

4 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

NO, NO, NO!  Don't EAT the squirrel!  Just give it some nuts!   Happy Christmas Knocker and thanks from me too for the very varied and always useful information you provide in 'Knocker's Thread' (as I call it).  Hope to see you carrying on the good work in 2019, whether we get any white stuff or not.  It's all weather to me......

sorry I meant for k to give the squirrel some tasty morsels not to eat it!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
30 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

 

sorry I meant for k to give the squirrel some tasty morsels not to eat it!

 

I knew that, John.  Just my attempt at Christmas cracker humour.  Ho Ho!?   We all know the squirrel is safe!  Happy Christmas to you and thanks for your own grounded and knowledgeable posts as ever.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Pretty much as expected. Very mild in the south west and still some mist around in places.

modis.thumb.JPG.9359ab227e0a7ab15ff003ce904df16e.JPG12.thumb.gif.426354e836c6c86cdaca8427adbcadba.gifPPVA89.thumb.gif.c87081e6542ed7845673e37c32fe39be.gif

Please to report Sidney is fine and sniffing the coffee and on that note I'm off for a double espresso and some Mongolian Torque

coffee.thumb.jpg.cbbcc2d3a6c3f9a35cfc2cb496f02fce.jpg

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Outlook - high pressure in charge but the alignment is such that systems can track around the northern flank and effect northern regions.

The NH 500mb profile and the surface analysis for midnight

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.36d59be904641903ef3cd71632bd9fa4.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.7ca2abf8bbc94641a62896ccd57cf8e6.gif

A cloudy and mild start to the day as the UK, broadly speaking, sits in a warm sector and the northern quadrant of the high cell. The cloudy and mild weather, maybe some patchy drizzle in some areas, will persist all day with a couple of exceptions. The main cold front has already brought some rain to north west Scotland and this will persist all day whilst along the south coast of England another weakening cold front will drift north to bring slightly cooler and clearer weather to the far south, Temps generally above average

Through the evening and overnight the cloudy and mild conditions will persist but the main cold front, followed closely by an occlusion, will track south east so light rain will effect north western followed by showers whilst in the clearer and colder air in the south some fog patches may form.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.d63714eb00ad439759b337929b6cb3aa.gifp06.thumb.png.db4341fda2c40d6b8017dd8174de5d69.pngmin.thumb.png.d348060ffd8d38f8ab14c248586b1b6d.png

By midday Thursday the fronts are straddling the country so cloud and patchy rain/drizzle in the areas underneath and adjacent whilst elsewhere much sunnier. Generally quite mild but a tad cooler in the south.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.5ef73cdc80741155d9342002189f9451.gifgfs_t2maf_slp_uk2_8.thumb.png.893fe473b66f6d4ce9a43811272fdc14.png

Come Friday and there is a lot of energy running around the amplified ridge/trough complex in the western Atlantic and a frontal system associated with the latter is forced around the high to impact northern regions of the UK bringing some rain but the fronts, and thus the rain, start to fizzle out on hitting the high pressure, Still mild, particularly in the northh

gfs_z500_vort_natl_10.thumb.png.a886b47061c517a912f432c69b5e3802.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.aa915cb78377c0df89e621abf47d2714.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.cb8c7761977ec496d2c6a805a497dc10.gif

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_10.thumb.png.d7952df7eb461ce8b1ddaf191a854f0e.pnggfs_t2maf_slp_uk2_11.thumb.png.a1203c47f46a108d931a2fa3a1d123c7.png

On Saturday the amplification to the west continues and the upper trough is becoming isolated to the south and another wave has formed on the front that stretches way back to the latter and tracked north east to bring more rain to the north whilst the south, albeit rather cloudy, stays dry. Temps still above average, particularly in the north

gfs_z500_vort_natl_15.thumb.png.42eba5bdc4170cb0c5e557803b22e52c.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.8b5fc0b87098210eb97b0a3b7a75b56e.gif

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.9751335bdc64ecf40d3ac4a51384d624.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.add99d15a0bb189422a78fd9c36c7cc7.png

By Sunday we are virtually back to where we started with the UK sitting in a very broad warm sector along the northern quadrant of the high with a light south easterly drift. Perfect ingredients for cloud, some sunny intervals, and very mild conditions,

gfs_z500_vort_natl_19.thumb.png.e233cde124895873d84767024a6d44d3.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.0ddc637f3315b981504a32e5d20ba02c.gifgfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_20.thumb.png.65fe95cb521e655ac33569a594be9d41.png

And the NH profile at T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.6a8d60a1b647dc91216bda0dbdc02e64.pnggfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.ff93f23058dfc29e932f8efecf8e1b4d.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Still cloud around associated with the fronts but a much better day in these parts as the medium and low cloud has gone us with just about total cover of Ci but of varying thickness so much brighter. Not a bad day

modis.thumb.JPG.f1a86afbcabf0c9fc874467c08f1948f.JPGPPVA89.thumb.gif.f909313ddb6e0abde594c4d654a40042.gif11.thumb.gif.0421acd8119d46d05e3ab52428fda54d.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Outlook - little change from previous comments. With the high centered to the south generally cloudy, temps above average but room for systems to nip around the northern periphery.

The NH 500mb profile and surface analysis for midnight and the 0400 chart.

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.bf86e999f4f5b8f941b0f447c9af869e.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.5ffe971db680a052111d98b92d6d7b22.gif04.thumb.gif.282de4ad2b2c85daf5e5ddf4026c9f57.gif

Still a fair bit of cloud around and as can be seen by the chart quite a bit of mist and fog as well, particularly in the south where skies did clear. These will clear leaving a mainly cloudy day with likely sunny periods in the south and some eastern regions and possibly some patchy drizzle in the far of Scotland from the decaying front. Temps still a tad above average apart from the south.

Cloud will probably become more widespread this evening and overnight with rain reaching western Scotland by the early hours from the next frontal system approaching from the west, Some clear period may occur in south so patchy mist/fog and a touch of frost in places

PPVG89.thumb.gif.f933f95763808ed4356df07eb42a0ae9.gifp03.thumb.png.2fb1d256aeb16abd234e8e5f7fde1d3a.pngp06.thumb.png.687d3d4ec7c285ac47d1ac29464ea29c.pngmin.thumb.png.2df50668518cd4574f438ebf6668f49b.png

The rain will fizzle out Friday morning as the fronts decay as they traverse the country resulting in a mainly cloudy day for most and the clearer spells confined to northern Scotland and some eastern regions.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.8cc9e404cc601af65b0ca92aacaeb28e.gifgfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_8.thumb.png.40ddab14f71108d6378a47c101d1c4ab.png

But the cold front of the above system trails way back to the south west and a wave has formed on it and this tracks north east over Scotland en route to Norway through Friday night and Saturday morning. This will bring rain and strengthening winds for a time to northern regions and still cloudy further south. Another day with temps above average

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.aedbea4de35527d192b9d669a5f018ef.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.a93d5f5a23995e8cd79d29cb3c3ff37b.gif

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_11.thumb.png.d879dc0a93a7171c1a3a408c87016813.pnggfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_12.thumb.png.10b8262a861103421558c8a9c2460b8c.png

By Sunday there is some more amplification in the Atlantic arena which intensities the high cell over the UK and forces the trailing front back to the north east resulting in another mainly cloudy, dry and warm day with temps still above average.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_15.thumb.png.fa8d5bf59cee588411ceb32c4f7cf193.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.4b2b120a5cc3b5a721c518d86f72565e.gifgfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_16.thumb.png.c9b421573ff7a9ed3ba270638026733f.png

Not a lot of change on New Years Eve but some rain may creep in to the far north west as a cold front associated with the complex trough to the west /north west forces it's way quite close. Another warm day

gfs_z500_vort_natl_19.thumb.png.163abd66a1190d2e8edefe93aad71a08.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.63f02e4432e6e4f97a6b5ff84c633090.gifgfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_20.thumb.png.608ca8d1791a79eff8cd5ce5a5eb24a2.png

And the NH profile at T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.c2313b1e65596f644262b1c32baa7c0d.pnggfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.c304b26067b77f7ae9de836190932684.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

As expected T72 charts show the High settling in with the cold front clearing south cooling things down after this mild spell.

 
fax72s.thumb.gif.4a2588066f6b369443bf27e1d1ac7d7d.gifUW72-7.thumb.gif.68da805d40c1b4061559b2ca058d2512.gif

The sub-zero uppers skirting eastern areas for a couple of days on it's journey into Europe.

UW120-7.thumb.gif.a7a4d83e475acfaf24bf5155634cbd5f.gif

Some night frosts are on the cards where we keep the clearer skies although as time goes by chances are we may well import more Atlantic cloud,depending on the orientation of the high and surface flow.

The London ens graphs and ECM NH view at T120hrs.

2.thumb.gif.55f957f1157006a17121a9c70f89650f.gif876068729_ensemble-tt6-london(1).thumb.gif.d90f5b93cd162c40140096c0d60bc41c.gif

3.thumb.gif.73f0a7d670c80f3c77aff245505efbd6.gifecmwf_z500a_nhem_6.thumb.png.b1922bf20e8d33ba0dc2b7dbf60d14ed.png

A pronounced upper ridge over the UK with troughing either side.Temperatures lowering somewhat but looking very dry with light winds as one would expect under the high.

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