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Short range model discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, the very hot and the very cold.
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL

Hurricane Florence in the Atlantic heading your way. That will shake things up. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, the very hot and the very cold.
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL

Re Florence, theres now talk of it turning more West in a few days as the bermuda/azores Ridge intensifies moving Florence more towards the US than north Atlantic / UK. Sst's are above average so any tropical system heading into the north Atlantic is likely to have more of an impact

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
15 minutes ago, Cleeve Hill said:

Re Florence, theres now talk of it turning more West in a few days as the bermuda/azores Ridge intensifies moving Florence more towards the US than north Atlantic / UK. Sst's are above average so any tropical system heading into the north Atlantic is likely to have more of an impact

That's true to some extent but rather depending on the track as there is quite sharp boundary with the SSTs and this has been a feature vis the atmospheric circulation in recent weeks

cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.thumb.png.377ee153d56a7b0d1312b82488f3ee68.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Becoming cooler and more unsettled by the end of the week with low pressure beaming more influential.

The NH profile at midnight and the surface analysis

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.398783579f2854051d1aaa5f5df76c3a.pnggfs_uv250_nh_1.thumb.png.10afab0559f49c371673d468acd6ee3d.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.b6ae851a70fb3d5bac4a218b1ae05160.gif

So for today the fronts draped across England Wales will merge and track very slowly south east against the ridge which effectively weakens it, thus the band of rain will slowly fizzle out but perhaps taking it's time in the north east. This results in a three way split with cooler and clearer air to the north of the front, warmer and more humid to the south and cooler in central parts under the cloud.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.8ece13552fb3bdad0adaeaa4a0778066.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.f16d97ba82e016ecefd92d3fdca11b1d.png

overview_012.thumb.jpg.bac99419a9916b70d1528214435b93da.jpgoverview_015.thumb.jpg.5667cce7f181294e85d9eac7bb423dc9.jpgoverview_018.thumb.jpg.b5daca21184ff646a8ed0211c0283abe.jpg

A not dissimilar story on Tuesday, cloudy along areas effected by the front (very little rain by this time) although the cloud may thin in places giving patchy sunshine. But a marked temp contrast, particularly along the north east coast with an onshore breeze.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.c1555468eb718d5fb07020ce6e99ea6e.gifgfs_mslp_uv10m_uk2_8.thumb.png.ab52464d2d7b741991797dc78df48559.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.9568a1e81c940052b80295e9f7e59c02.png

Wednesday is generally a dry and fairly sunny day with around average temps but the change alluded to at the beginning is under way with amplification in the Atlantic resulting in an upper low over Iceland tracking south east into Scotland.

gfs_z500a_natl_12.thumb.png.4108d0c9720b19d46d7943043a732c74.pnggfs_uv250_natl_12.thumb.png.9bc9a8b736850e5820552047ba5480da.png

So that by early evening cloud and rain from the occlusion associated with a surface low to the north will effect N. Ireland and western Scotland and the rest of Scotland and north west England during the evening

PPVK89.thumb.gif.7efcd1e549973c656d5f8e224806bb5f.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.37862d24d05c9c7e5405bc65361d9cf4.png

overview_066.thumb.jpg.f076e69f6c4edeecb6041a65434818c5.jpgoverview_069.thumb.jpg.74dd7f3d6fb240a654932d3879cc5e56.jpgoverview_072.thumb.jpg.dce65732a1bf0b1383719891b06f32d0.jpg

By Thursday the surface low is to the east in the North Sea/southern Norway area and thus a prevailing northerly wind and much cooler conditions over all of the UK with outbreaks of rain which, even at this stage, the detail is difficult to pin down.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.73a750ce6daf57ac8b6e1420d0281d3f.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.e4fea858418bc5f0bacfc8d92dfcb2da.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.437cfaa81f86fcc77f64f25219ccca87.png

Friday the low is more organized and now centred over the UK and another cool day, particularly over England and Wales, with outbreaks of rain cropping up virtually anywhere.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.08ddb1ca96e6c0d2e0e04df3cb5be62c.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.a56e15f31ee1bd2b137444e405a2cb89.png

And by T120 the changes in the NH profile are quite apparent

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.ca4615e5f3bbaf13c5c937bfa2aa6c94.pnggfs_t850a_nh_21.thumb.png.fdfcfdd3a25ad9b08c28d9a6f4826e8b.png

Where we go from here is not without interest and as can be seen the gfs has the cross Pole trough/vortex complex about to whip into action again.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Tropical Storm Gordon impacting South Florida as we speak. Very heavy rainfall is the biggest threat since max sustained winds are only 45 mph

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KAMX&prod=bref1&bkgr=gray&endDate=20180903&endTime=-1&duration=0

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

An eye-wall forming in Gordon?

forms in N'rn Old Bahama Channel just south of the FL Keys as weak wind shear and warm SSTs allowed for the system to strengthen shown by stronger convection and a more well defined broad low-level circulation near the keys H/t Eric Drewitz

gordon.thumb.JPG.c8439f972bf8d14d91ba5a4237b90786.JPG

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Outlook. Becoming cooler and unsettled by the weekend as low pressure becomes more influential.

The NH profile at midnight and the surface analysis

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.8a1236d4ec053acb6dd9eaa0caa223c4.pnggfs_uv250_nh_1.thumb.png.2572808e3cf8eaacf28910fc71d9971f.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.207990bc645f3b10f37c69df5700efcb.gif

So a fairly quiet day today, albeit quite a mixed bag. With the weakening front straddling the country remaining cloudy in north eastern and central regions whilst cooler and clearer to the NW and N and humid and warmer in the south east. Quite a regional variation with the temps particularly along the north east coast with the onshore breeze. There may still be drips and drabs of drizzle/rain around the front, more likely in the north east.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.988361af4db2093e2cb3c5765caa2ee9.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.c60cae7ee0d7e6e3a929be6e04084fb3.png

During the evening and overnight some heavy showers may effect the far south east, courtesy the close proximity of the trough, and then during the day more persistent frontal rain will effect N. Ireland and western Scotland associated with the low just to the north. But generally it will be another pretty quiet and pleasant day with broken cloud.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.1a265899ff08809f9f3777bb8d69b4a9.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.9a67326e73bfcc39f3e5bfa569749633.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.354bfbdbab135f91a40456e9d8c0665b.png

overview_024.thumb.jpg.f796029b50e303cec23ba8aebfe9b95a.jpgoverview_030.thumb.jpg.211d43a5b2f8a673625e555f065db49c.jpgoverview_036.thumb.jpg.18b9d273ea044985c4f00a130dc7afad.jpg

overview_042.thumb.jpg.0c5e1bddec8ea47ad8cfffd5c5e804d7.jpg

By Thursday the upper low, mentioned in previous posts, is firmly ensconced over Scotland as the ridge recedes

gfs_z500_vort_eur_11.thumb.png.dd95c540daef8f88625ba4dc4a85a785.png

And colder air is being introduced as the aforementioned front tracks south east down the country leaving showery conditions in it's wake as the main rain band tends to fizzle out

PPVK89.thumb.gif.5333d4fcb89678e661336b0197bbc5f2.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_12.thumb.png.40493f7feb684526eff95f8bda867049.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.67ca39a1eae5b16b4d7d52638701b240.png

Over Friday and Saturday the UK is under the influence of low pressure and the associated fronts thus cool, showery conditions with outbreaks of more persistent rain in places but becoming a tad drier and warmer as the weekend progresses.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.e1cdf9211849ebf7dd2fdfed2e5d819a.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.45211ad10ea95e7d6eb34aa175213e57.png

PPVO89.thumb.gif.f9164e73d3b058a4722dd445a6dfaa32.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.49b53cd7ccdfd62e0b5bda9f3275afbe.png

And the NH profile at T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.dc889b82b71f2ed70c673ec60ad1f524.pnggfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.a39b957d7d3b47487f74e7a4121143ae.png

 

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