Short range model discussion - into 2018

[knocker]

The 1300 UTC chart

[knocker]

A quick glance at the Icon for tomorrow

[knocker]

https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#m=oss;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=0.00;ts=0;tr=1;

[knocker]

Storms showing up well on the 1800 UTC geostationary

[knocker]

This evening's fax charts show the low to the north west midday Saturday with the cold fronts clearing east into the North Sea.Thus a showery cooler day but the next wave and associated fronts are poised to the south west and they track rapidly north east overnight saturday through Sunday to bring rain and strengthening winds to most of the UK

Edited July 26, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

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Edited July 26, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

There is a lot going on today and over the weekend so this. perforce, will just be a simplistic overview as I'm sure the relevant threads can cover the detail. In a nutshell we will see a change from the hot humid conditions prevailing at the moment to a cooler cyclonic few days and we haven't seen that for a while.

It has been a very warm and humid night for many with some storms still lingering in the east and cloudy over N. Ireland and western Scotland and the far west of England and Wales as the cold front edges in from the west.

And this will be the story of the day. Cloud and some patchy rain edging east but in the latter temps will rise very rapidly and it will become very hot, particularly in the south east but away from the west it will be very warm generally. This will trigger more storms as the day progresses and some of these could be severe but, as is the case with storms, pot luck where they occur. Thus there could well a fair amount of rain in a short space of time in some places. (the max temp may well depend on the cloud/storm distribution)

The threat of storms will continue through the evening and early part of the night but all the time the cold front, with patchy rain and cooler conditions,  is tracking east and will have cleared everywhere, apart from Scotland, by 1200 Saturday leaving cooler and showery conditions in it's wake with a dramatic drop in temps in some places after today.

So by Sunday 00 something we haven't seen for a while, cyclonic domination, with an intense upper low south of Iceland

and another wave depression that is swinging around the main low by the same time is just south west of Ireland en route to western Scotland as it becomes absorbed by the main low. This, and the associated fronts, will bring rain and strong winds to most of the UK on Sunday and a much cooler day generally.

The fronts will have cleared by Monday and with the main deep surface low to the north west sunny intervals and showers will be the order of the day but the latter more concentrated in the north west.

With the main low drifting south of Iceland Tuesday will be another day of showers and sunny intervals but cloud and rain may encroach the north west late on

The NH profile at T120

 

 

Edited July 27, 2018 by knocker

[Tom Quintavalle]

Music to my ears Knocker, thank you for that. S.E.London, has been unbearable, especially in the last few days and at night.

Regards,

Tom.

[knocker]

This morning's updated fax charts for Sunday/Monday and the ecm

The 0600 geostationary. Some nice cells in the east

[knocker]

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 hours ago, knocker said:

The 0600 geostationary. Some nice cells in the east

Those storms just missed me to the west, Malcolm - on NW radar they seemed to vary betwenn being a single wide band of storms and two narrow lines running on a N-S axis.

[knocker]

The high res. MODIS at 1233 UTC (courtesy DSRS). Some intense rainfall here just now. Passage of trough or front? And 1300 chart

 

Edited July 27, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

An interesting Camborne midday sounding as apart from the number of cloud layers it has a 5C inversion at 450mb which I assume is down to the upper warm front on the analysis. I don't recollect seeing one quite so marked before.

[knocker]

Storm currently just north of you Chris showing up well on the 1500 UTC geostationary. Some Cbs on the chart

[knocker]

The gfs seems to have found a little upper cold pool to swing across the UK on Wednesday

[knocker]

Massive cells down the east coast on the 1800 geostationary

[knocker]

This evening's fax charts for Sunday and the ecm

And the cold upper pool Tuesday

[knocker]

The outlook over the next few days Is certainly different to what we have been used to recently with the cyclonic influence becoming paramount and thus bouts of wind and rain with temps much cooler

Currently the storms of yesterday evening are still effecting the north east and will continue over eastern Scotland as the cold front clears into the North Sea.

With the center of the low pressure adjacent to western Scotland frequent heavy showers will be the order of the day, particularly in N. Ireland and western areas, in the brisk south westerly wind with temps much nearer average. But away to the south west the next wave with associated fronts is winging it's way north east and more concentrated cloud and rain will effect the south west by evening.

Overnight and through Sunday the low will track NNE across the UK to be north of Scotland 994mb by 00 Monday so Sunday will be a wet and windy day, with gales in some areas, for virtually everyone

by Monday the UK and the eastern Atlantic are dominated by low pressure centred to the west and north west of Ireland with fronts just clearing east into the North Sea so the UK in a brisk south westerly wind with frequent showers, mainly concentrated in the north and west.

A not dissimilar day on Tuesday with temps perhaps even a little below average

Wednesday sees high pressure starting to ridge NE into the south so a tad warmer but systems still swinging NNE bringing some cloud and rain to N. Ireland and western Scotland

And the NH profile at T120

[knocker]

From T96 the ecm starts the process of deconstructing the trough in mid Atlantic which initiates northward ridging of high pressure from Iberia into the southern half of the UK and thus more settled conditions and temps warming.

The 0600 geostationary, Some hefty showers around and a couple of passing brief thunderstorms down here earlier.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Thanks again, for your input Knocker and really appreciating the much fresher outlook!!

Parts of S.E.London, resemble the Mojave Desert!!

Regards,

Tom.

[Sky Full]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

..........  Some hefty showers around and a couple of passing brief thunderstorms down here earlier.

What an incredible image that is!   Would have been nice to enjoy some beautiful skies like that in Pembrokeshire but sadly fully overcast last night completely obscuring the partial eclipse....   Looks like we will now have 48 hours of showery, breezy weather here with average temperature values - a very typical summer picture really.   Looking forward to seeing your analysis of the gradual changes expected next week though....

[knocker]

That band of concentrated showers to the south west on the 0900 geostationary has impacted here in the last hour

[knocker]

The high res. MODIS at 1316 UTC (courtesy DSRS) and 1400 chart. Breezy and massive temp difference (as Expected) in some areas

[knocker]

The general overview of the analysis this evening is low pressure to the north west and thus a brisk and showery SW/W airstream over the UK but a wave depression depression is gathering itself away to the south west which will track north east into the south Irish sea 989mb by 0600 tomorrow.

Cloud and rain from this system will effect the far south west by 2100 and then across most of England and Wales and into Scotland by tomorrow afternoon, The rain will heavy in places, particularly the south west, accompanied by coastal gales in Wales and England.

Edited July 28, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The gathering wind and rain