Short range model discussion - into 2018

[knocker]

Just to note as an addendum to an earlier post that the METO have issued a yellow warning for thundery outbreaks Friday.

[knocker]

The 1500 UTC geostationary

[knocker]

The latest advisory on Chris which equates, on the gfs,  to the associated front impinging on the north west and then struggling south east with the cooler air in it's wake.

Edited July 11, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

 The instability on Friday

 

[knocker]

It's been a pretty warm and sultry night in the south, with a few showers in eastern Wales, but further north the patchy rain that's been effecting Scotland has mainly fizzled out but the cloud will still linger and the cloud that has encroached eastern coastal regions will also linger a while before clearing. Thus in general it will be a sunny day, a tad warmer than yesterday in the south, but some showers will pop up in western areas through the afternoon and evening

The showers will die out later and through the night but low cloud will creep back into eastern regions which will clear fairly quickly Friday morning and it will be generally another sunny day with temps still rising, particularly in central, western and southern regions of England where it will be very warm. This will initiate some some widespread thundery activity in central and western areas which could lead to some localized intense rainfall

By Saturday the remnants of TS Chris have phased with the main trough and the frontal systems associated with this have brought cloud, some rain, and increasing wind to the north west but south east of a line, roughly Liverpool to Berwick, it remains sunny with temps still increasing and locally hot.

On Sunday the fronts stall over the north west as they hit the ridge which leads to very marked NW/SE temp contrast with the former quite cool (relatively) against hot in the latter. This may spark the odd shower here.

Monday is slightly more complex with a front pushing further south east and the thundery showers becoming more widespread in  the south east where the hot weather is concentrated.

 Thus the door is now ajar for the onset of more changeable period with the ridge no longer the major influence.

Edited July 12, 2018 by knocker

[rain_shadow]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

It's been a pretty warm and sultry night in the south, with a few showers in eastern Wales, but further north the patchy rain that's been effecting Scotland has mainly fizzled out but the cloud will still linger and the cloud that has encroached eastern coastal regions will also linger a while before clearing. Thus in general it will be a sunny day, a tad warmer than yesterday in the south, but some showers will pop up in western areas through the afternoon and evening

The showers will die out later and through the night but low cloud will creep back into eastern regions which will clear fairly quickly Friday morning and it will be generally another sunny day with temps still rising, particularly in central, western and southern regions of England where it will be very warm. This will initiate some some widespread thundery activity in central and western areas which could lead to some localized intense rainfall

By Saturday the remnants of TS Chris have phased with the main trough and the frontal systems associated with this have brought cloud, some rain, and increasing wind to the north west but south east of a line, roughly Liverpool to Berwick, it remains sunny with temps still increasing and locally hot.

On Sunday the fronts stall over the north west as they hit the ridge which leads to very marked NW/SE temp contrast with the former quite cool (relatively) against hot in the latter. This may spark the odd shower here.

Monday is slightly more complex with a front pushing further south east and the thundery showers becoming more widespread in  the south east where the hot weather is concentrated.

 Thus the door is now ajar for the onset of more changeable period with the ridge no longer the major influence.

3rd day of low cloud in North Wales with little sunshine, I bet it will stay cloudy today as well. Last two days I could see the edge of the cloud to the east (Cheshire) which did not seem to move West whatsoever. These localised showers worth not much and you need a miracle to have a T storm in N Wales or at least sunshine for home grown t storms so will see tomorrow.If this low cloud won't disappear, I don't expect much excitement.

Edited July 12, 2018 by rain_shadow

[knocker]

The 0600 geostationary

[knocker]

 The ecm in the same ball park as the gfs at T120

Edited July 12, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Chris this morning

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=03L&product=wv-mid

[knocker]

 

Edited July 12, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The Arome's take on the convective activity this PM

[knocker]

High res. MODIS at 1316 UTC

[knocker]

Front containing to track south east n Monday, marked weather and temp NW/SE split with thundery showers in the latter, as the 'cooler' air progresses.

[knocker]

The ecm at the beginning of next week as one arm of the jet takes up a more WNW/ESE orientation

[knocker]

A quick look at last evening’s NH 500mb anomalies to keep abreast of the framework within which the current det. runs are operating.

The dominating dynamic is much the same as previously discussed with the vortex/upper low over the Arctic with associated trough down into the eastern Atlantic, flanked by strong ridging in eastern Europe extending NW into Scandinavia with another upper low in south east Europe . Also the Atlantic high pressure pushing north in the west.

This quite amplified pattern does not lend itself to any great west > east movement thus the outlook for the UK is for fairly slack shallow low pressure to be influential with a tendency towards a NW/SE split with the detail vis any Atlantic intrusions in the north, and thundery developments further south, down to the det. runs, to sort.

Meanwhile....................

After a pretty muggy night in many areas the cloud down the eastern regions and any lingering elsewhere, will disperse portending a sunny and warm day, albeit with quite a N>S temp range. This will lead to showery/thundery outbreaks, generally effecting Wales, central and southern England, but they could pop up elsewhere. These slow moving intense showers, there would appear to be no reason why the cloud tops should not be far off the tropopause, could dump a fair bit of rain if you happen to catch one.

The showers will tend to die out during the evening but cloud and some patchy rain will start effecting the north west as fronts associated with the complex low pressure area south of Iceland edge east. This movement will continue through Saturday brining cloud and intermittent rain to N. Ireland and western Scotland but further south it will be a very warm day and showers are quite likely to spring up in some eastern regions of England.

Sunday not dissimilar with fronts bringing cloud and rain, and much cooler temps, to N. Ireland and Scotland whilst further south it will be very warm and hot in the south east.

Monday through Tuesday sees the decaying front slowly traverse the country will the 'cooler' air following in it's wake, so the NW/SE split will continue to be emphasized as thundery showers pop up and by the end temps are getting nearer the average for the time of year.

[knocker]

Frontal position through Sunday/Monday

[knocker]

This morning's 0600 geostationary indicates some showery activity in the NW of England that is supported by Arome.

[knocker]

The 0900 UTC geostationary

 

[knocker]

convective overview from the Arome this PM

[knocker]

High res. MODIS at 1210 UTC

[lottiekent]

What’s your view on the breakdown of the heat this week Knocker? Some seem to think it’ll continue on for a while

[knocker]

23 hours ago, lottiekent said:

What’s your view on the breakdown of the heat this week Knocker? Some seem to think it’ll continue on for a while

Lottie apologies for not replying sooner.

Firstly the was a brief period of intense rainfall here this morning as the cold front passed through. The MODIS for 1100

In your neck of the woods it will continue dry and warm as there is a distinct NW/SE split for the week. Apart from some showers tomorrow no appreciable rain until some frontal systems impact the north Thursday/Friday

 

[knocker]

Maybe some intense thundery showers in the NE this evening.

And the front starting to decay on Friday

Edited July 16, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Double frontal structure indicated on the 1200 fax with weakening upper cold front. Perhaps indicated on the 1800 geostationary

[knocker]

A cooler day tomorrow after the passage of the front which does develop a shallow wave and thus slower to clear the north east where there will continue to be showery outbreaks.

Through Weds/Thurs the UK remains on the periphery of the ridging high pressure but late Thursday frontal rain encroaches the north west which fizzles out against the ridge through Friday resulting again in  a NW/SE split.

Max temps from the 1800 Synops

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/18.html

Edited July 16, 2018 by knocker