Short range model discussion - into 2018

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, richep said:

Any charts floating around for weekend of 14th/15th

Will post in main model thread a bit later.

[richep]

Thanks mate, big airshow 14th

[cheese]

2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Heatwave day 9:

Again some small discrepancies between AROME and ARPEGE. The ARPEGE was actually slightly closer than AROME the past two days (official maximums 31.8C and 31.1C), so it will be interesting to see if that carries on.

AROME: England 26-27C (possible 28C in cities), Wales 28-29C, Ireland 26-27C, N Ireland 24-25C, Scotland not shown

ARPEGE: England 28-29C (highs in SW), Wales 26-27C, Ireland 27-28C, N Ireland 22-24C, Scotland generally 24-26C but possible 28C in the Highlands.

Tomorrow will probably be the "coolest" day of the heatwave, with temperatures only just getting over the 80F line. Hot enough for most I imagine.

Finally, I should acknowledge it isn't a heatwave absolutely everywhere - the extreme east coast once again only in the teens. That looks set to change on Thursday though

It's not a heatwave here today either as the temperature is only 20C at 8 minutes before 12. Actually feels quite cool considering how warm it's been for nearly 2 weeks.

Edited July 3, 2018 by cheese

[knocker]

The overhead MODIS at 1320 UTC with the Shetlands and the Orknets snipped. Instability sneaking into the south west again

 

Edited July 3, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The area of instability that has moved into the south west during today shows up well on the 1800 geostationary and will still be around overnight and into tomorrow so a possibility of the odd storm in this region and probably further east as well

 

Edited July 3, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The next couple of days will generally see conditions a little cooler than of late with some regional variations with the weather before the next phase of the evolution gets underway with a consolidation of the high pressure over the UK over the weekend and generally sunny and very warm once again

Today starts off cloudy in many areas with the usual ingress in eastern regions that will burn off to the coast quite quickly but in the south west and south Wales the showery rain associated with the low pressure to the south west has persisted through the night and will continue to do so through the day spreading through southern/central regions as well. Precipitation will be slight unless you catch the odd storm  A possibility of some showers in north west Scotland , particularly later in the day as a cold front edges in from the west. All of this means quite a spread temp wise with the highest in southern and central regions. The Camborne midnight sounding illustrates the very moist air associated with the low and troughs embedded.

Overnight and through tomorrow the front will continue to meander south easy but slowly losing it's identity so just some patchy cloud but it will introduce clearer and cooler air in it;s wake and thus quite a marked temp spread on Thursday with central southern regions getting very warm which could trigger the odd thunderstorm albeit the south west still remaining cooler with possible still some showery outbreaks.

As mentioned earlier Friday and Saturday sees the next phase underway with the upper trough already in mid Atlantic and the high pressure beginning to amplify and consolidate over the UK whilst at the same time removing the instability in the south

Thus although the north remains cooler on Friday by Saturday they are back in the fold and a very warm and sunny day generally is the order of the day in very light winds

Sunday another very warm and sunny day but some cloud and maybe slight rain could creep into north western regions as a cold front struggles east against the high pressure and eastern coastal regions may again have lower temps in the onshore breeze

 

Edited July 4, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm consolidates the ridge and a very warm weekend is in the pipe line. How the ridge/high cell realigns next week in relation to any troughs from the north west and the possible reemergence of low pressure to the south is pretty critical to regional temp and weather detail.

The 0600 UTC geostationary pretty much sums up the current position

[Man With Beard]

Heatwave day 10:

Probably the low point for temperatures so far.

Quite good agreement between AROME/ARPEGE today:

AROME: England 26-27 (possible 28 in NW), Wales 26-27, Ireland 26-27, N Ireland 26-27, Scotland not shown

ARPEGE: England 25-27, Wales 26-27, Ireland 26-27, N Ireland 26-27, Scotland 27-28 (Highlands)

Generally cooler in the SW of the country today, and some areas of the E coast

Hotter tomorrow

[Djdazzle]

Really is the sign of an exceptional summer when 26-27C is a low point!

[knocker]

The 0900 geostationary image and 0600 fax chart/

[knocker]

One would think a good chance of a hefty shower in central and west central areas this afternoon

[cheese]

3 hours ago, knocker said:

The ecm consolidates the ridge and a very warm weekend is in the pipe line. How the ridge/high cell realigns next week in relation to any troughs from the north west and the possible reemergence of low pressure to the south is pretty critical to regional temp and weather detail.

I see a cheeky 31C over Leeds on Sunday. I hope so.

[knocker]

Brilliant high res. MODIS at 1230 UTC (courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving Station) A bit dodgy in Skeggy

[knocker]

The 1400 UTC chart, Temps down a lot, as expected, in many areas

Edited July 4, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Unlike today tomorrow should see the hottest temps in central,/southern and eastern England and not N. Ireland and Scotland where it will be 'cooler', And there could be a fair bit of convective activity and even the odd storm in the far south.

Edited July 4, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The overall picture this morning is a continuation of the sunny, warm/hot and dry conditions, albeit some regional vagaries over the next couple of days, before the high pressure once more consolidates over the weekend and into next week. I have gone into the mechanism behind this previously so suffice it this morning to just post the simple progression of the North Atlantic 500mb anomaly that illustrates this quite well

Some meat on the bare bones although there isn't a huge amount to get the teeth into.

After a pretty warm and sultry night in many places today will be hot in central/southern/eastern regions of England and this will trigger some thundery outbreaks later in the day. Elsewhere still a tad cloudy in the far south west but the main variation today in the north where a cold front, currently over N. Ireland and Scotland, will track south east leaving cooler (relatively speaking), and clearer air in it's wake. Thus a fair temp spread today.not forgetting sea breezes in coastal regions

After another warm night in southern regions tomorrow will be another sunny day after early morning cloud burns off in the south east and again there is the possibility of some hefty showers in the south and as far west as Wales where it will again be hot, But, also again, a tad coole rin the north for the already stated reasons and also cloudy in N. Ireland

As we have already seen high pressure starts to consolidate by saturday with the trough and surface fronts west of Ireland struggling against the ridge so another very warm day, hot in the south, portends with perhaps some cloud edging into the north west.

Sunday another very warm day but cloudy in the north west and west with possible some light, patchy rain as the cold front fizzles out within the confines of the ridge.

A not dissimilar day on Monday but it does illustrate the importance of the orientation of the ridge as once again an onshore wind is initiated along north east coasts and thus some cooler temps and perhaps some low cloud.

 

 

 

 

Edited July 5, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Today,s convective overview from Arome

[Radiating Dendrite]

Hoping we get lucky and catch a shower / storm here just to help the plants and wildlife. No rain now for 37 days - even 5mm would be a nice for plants / grass.

Starting to tire of watering the grass now!

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Hoping we get lucky and catch a shower / storm here just to help the plants and wildlife. No rain now for 37 days - even 5mm would be a nice for plants / grass.

Starting to tire of watering the grass now!

Don’t bother with grass. It will recover.

[knocker]

The ecm merely confirms hot in England and Wales at the beginning of the week with the caveat vis ridge orientation on Monday.

This morning's 0600 UTC geostationary (courtesy DSRS)

 

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Can't take the chance - paid a lot of money to have the new lawn put down. Giving it a good soak every three or four days late in the evening. 

Anyway.....enough about my grass problems

[Man With Beard]

Heatwave day 11:

AROME: England 28-29, possible 30 in midlands, Wales 26-27, Ireland 24-25, N Ireland 22-23, Scotland not shown 

ARPEGE : England 29-30, Wales 24-25, Ireland 26-27, N Ireland 22-23, Scotland 24-25

Yesterday's max was 29 in N Ireland (28s in Scotland too), meaning 10 consecutive days above 29 degrees so far

[knocker]

The high res MODIS at 1300 UTC and chart

[Coopsy]

Is the humidity due to drop this weekend? Currently very humid and sticky here in the SE . First time its felt uncomfortable during this warm spell 

Edited July 5, 2018 by c00ps

[knocker]

52 minutes ago, c00ps said:

Is the humidity due to drop this weekend? Currently very humid and sticky here in the SE . First time its felt uncomfortable during this warm spell 

Still fairly humid in your neck of the woods I would expect if  not quite as bad as today