Short range model discussion - into 2018

[bradymk]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

The 0600 UTC geostationary. There is a concoction of medium cloud here with slight rain

 

Something actually happening on the satellite pic! Heavy line of showers too south west and west of Exeter! I just realised this morning from Mark McCarthy at MetO, that until 10:00BST, any rainfall this morning counts towards June’s average rainfall. Supposedly a historical quirk of climate monitoring.

[knocker]

Summary climate details for June for some Synop stations

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/PREV.html

[knocker]

For a more detailed look at the current SSTA around the UK

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-1.60,53.91,3000

 

[claret047]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Summary climate details for June for some Synop stations

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/PREV.html

Very interesting Malcolm.

In Essex as we had no rain yesterday it was the driest June on record.

Kind Regards

Dave

 

[Djdazzle]

13 minutes ago, claret047 said:

Very interesting Malcolm.

In Essex as we had no rain yesterday it was the driest June on record.

Kind Regards

Dave

 

If I recall correctly we had about 10 mins of light rain which just about wetted the ground and about 5 spots on another day. Quite incredible really.

[knocker]

The high res. MODIS at 1156 UTC (courtesy DSRS) I can confirm a clearance from the south got underway about an hour ago down here and that we have had virtually no rain. Still some nice Algal Blooms in the North Sea

 

Edited July 1, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Not unexpectedly of course but markedly higher temps east of the convective area on the 1400 chart

[knocker]

After mid week the gfs loses the faithful Iberian low but wait, the next Atlantic trough is soon primed to creates the next one courtesy of  some more serious ridging by the Atlantic high pressure., Always useful to have the cut off upper low around the Iberia region if some more WAA running north into the UK floats your boat.

Edited July 1, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

I have posted this morning's waffle in the wrong thread. If the MODS could transfer it to here please.

[knocker]

The Atlantic trough temporarily disrupting the ridge towards the end of the short range does appear to achieve a number of things pertaining to the forthcoming evolution. One the creation of yet another cut off upper low, Two it scoots the instability over France away to the east and thirdly it sets in motion rising heights over the UK and renewed ridging and a 590 dam over the UK which is quite impressive.

The 0600 UTC geostationary

[Man With Beard]

Heatwave day 8

Some disagreement on today's maximums :

AROME: England 28-29, Wales 30-31 (on South coast), Ireland 28-29, N Ireland 24-25 (possible 26), Scotland not shown 

ARPEGE: England 28-29 (possible 30 C Southern areas), Wales 26-27, Ireland 26-27, N Ireland 24-25, Scotland 24-25

Predicted maximums were a fraction too low yesterday, so will be interesting to see what happens today given that maximums are predicted for new areas. Also, ECM raw data predicts 30C on the south coast today, which is the highest value it has given throughout the heatwave so far, and if its past forms is a guide, that could equate to an actual of 32-33

Edited July 2, 2018 by Man With Beard

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Heatwave day 8

Some disagreement on today's maximums :

AROME: England 28-29, Wales 30-31 (on South coast), Ireland 28-29, N Ireland 24-25 (possible 26), Scotland not shown 

ARPEGE: England 28-29 (possible 30 C Southern areas), Wales 26-27, Ireland 26-27, N Ireland 24-25, Scotland 24-25

Predicted maximums were a fraction too low yesterday, so will be interesting to see what happens today given that maximums are predicted for new areas. 

I reckon we will see a 31c somewhere again today.

Just as an aside, any idea what's happened to the ECM cluster ensembles? They seem to have stopped since the 28th June!

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

I reckon we will see a 31c somewhere again today.

Just as an aside, any idea what's happened to the ECM cluster ensembles? They seem to have stopped since the 28th June!

Yes not updating, boo! Have been browsing individual ensembles on weather.us but very time consuming!

[knocker]

The high res. MODIS at 1240 UTC. Since mid morning down here there has been a steady build up of medium level instability in the form of Ac Cas accompanied by Ci

 

[knocker]

The 1500 geostationary.

Quite complex medium level cloud here with slight rain which is no surprise looking the nidday chart and sounding

 

[knocker]

The key development for future strong WAA starts here with the strong ridging and WAA in North America

 

Edited July 2, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

A risk of the odd showers Weds/Thursday

 

[knocker]

The ecm in the same ball park st the gfs at this stage but the detail will be trickier with the subsequent evolution vis the amplification of the high pressure either side of the cut off low and thus the latter's subsequent orientation.

[knocker]

Tonight's EPS 15 day rainfall

[knocker]

The overview for the rest of this week and into the weekend is much the same as yesterdays assessment, and thus continuing warm ,sunny and dry with just some regional vagaries But an event does occur within the period which does impact towards the end of the latter. And that is the strong ridging in the NE of North America and the ejection of a trough into the North Atlantic at T72 on last night's gfs and ecm runs

It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few days.

A little more detail albeit weather wise there isn't much

After a clear night in most areas any low cloud and mist that has encroached inland in NE Ans E regions will burn back to the coasts as another warm and sunny day ensues elsewhere, the Shetlands excepted, with the highest temps probably in central southern regions as sea breezes kick in around the coasts

Another clear night and warm and sunny day tomorrow, usual caveats, but still cloudy over the Shetlands and the low pressure and instability is never that far away from the south coast and during the early hours and through the day some showery activity may effect the south west and possible other southern regions,

By Thursday the aforementioned trough has appeared in the western Atlantic and nearer home a cold front is fizzling out on some renewed ridging from the south west. Thus although another sunny and warm day, particularly in the south which may trigger a few hefty showers, a cooler and cloudier day in the north west.

Friday and Saturday sees the Atlantic trough split by further amplification of the Bermuda high pressure which creates another cut off upper low whilst at the same time initiating impressive height rises over the UK as the European high also begins to amplify.

Thus as pressure builds over Friday and Saturday warm/hot and dry is the name of the game with perhaps the odd isolated shower/storm in the south.

 

 

Edited July 3, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

This morning's 0600 UTC geostationary illustrating quite well the ridge over the UK and frontal instability northern France west.

 

[knocker]

The ecm ends the short range in a position that should merely confirm a continuation of warm and dry.

[Man With Beard]

Heatwave day 9:

Again some small discrepancies between AROME and ARPEGE. The ARPEGE was actually slightly closer than AROME the past two days (official maximums 31.8C and 31.1C), so it will be interesting to see if that carries on.

AROME: England 26-27C (possible 28C in cities), Wales 28-29C, Ireland 26-27C, N Ireland 24-25C, Scotland not shown

ARPEGE: England 28-29C (highs in SW), Wales 26-27C, Ireland 27-28C, N Ireland 22-24C, Scotland generally 24-26C but possible 28C in the Highlands.

Tomorrow will probably be the "coolest" day of the heatwave, with temperatures only just getting over the 80F line. Hot enough for most I imagine.

Finally, I should acknowledge it isn't a heatwave absolutely everywhere - the extreme east coast once again only in the teens. That looks set to change on Thursday though

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Heatwave day 9:

Again some small discrepancies between AROME and ARPEGE. The ARPEGE was actually slightly closer than AROME the past two days (official maximums 31.8C and 31.1C), so it will be interesting to see if that carries on.

AROME: England 26-27C (possible 28C in cities), Wales 28-29C, Ireland 26-27C, N Ireland 24-25C, Scotland not shown

ARPEGE: England 28-29C (highs in SW), Wales 26-27C, Ireland 27-28C, N Ireland 22-24C, Scotland generally 24-26C but possible 28C in the Highlands.

Tomorrow will probably be the "coolest" day of the heatwave, with temperatures only just getting over the 80F line. Hot enough for most I imagine.

Finally, I should acknowledge it isn't a heatwave absolutely everywhere - the extreme east coast once again only in the teens. That looks set to change on Thursday though

Whats the temperature projections from ecm for friday onwards mate!!i really cant believe this current spell of hot and sunny weather we are having!!seems to go on forever and theres way more to come!!spoke to my dad the other day and he mentioned the similarities to the summer of 76 straightaway!!!could be quite special this

[Man With Beard]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Whats the temperature projections from ecm for friday onwards mate!!i really cant believe this current spell of hot and sunny weather we are having!!seems to go on forever and theres way more to come!!spoke to my dad the other day and he mentioned the similarities to the summer of 76 straightaway!!!could be quite special this

Max temps on ECM 00Z high 20s Friday/Saturday, low 30s Sunday all the way to next Thursday.