Short range model discussion - into 2018

[cheese]

38 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

 

Soft bairns these days. We used to do that when it was 8 degrees and bucketing it down. 

You'll catch your death doing that - or so people say.

[knocker]

One can't help but wonder whether the current Atlantic SST anomalies are contributing to reinforcing the current pattern over western Europe

[Deep Snow please]

33 minutes ago, cheese said:

You'll catch your death doing that - or so people say.

More likely to catch your death running around in current conditions.

[cheese]

45 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

More likely to catch your death running around in current conditions.

I see plenty of people doing that. Some people are pretty tough.

[knocker]

The very strong ridge in the eastern US does split the Canadian trough at T96 but all this seems to achieve is a very shallow surface low pressure area west and south west of the UK with virtually no gradient over the latter as the rather skewiff omega block proves once again to be very resilient  As mentioned this morning, inertia reigns.

Edited June 29, 2018 by knocker

[The PIT]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

One can't help but wonder whether the current Atlantic SST anomalies are contributing to reinforcing the current pattern over western Europe

Interesting set up.

[knocker]

The latest fax charts for Sunday and the ecm that has the plume directly north over central southern England before moving it east, and the instability on the trough which probably will not amount to much

[knocker]

The ecm has Monday > Weds very hot, with the exception of northern Scotland, under a very slack gradient but a risk of convective activity drifting north into southern and central areas for the latter couple of days.

Edited June 29, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm rainfall

[knocker]

A glance at the short range NH profile is quite informative showing, as they do, a pretty amplified picture with strong ridging and troughs (with the related cool/warm air distribution) with particularly strong ridging over the Aleutians. Eastern US and the eastern Atlantic interspersed by the twin vortex lobes and associated troughs. Thus, in a nut shell, little longitudinal movement and with weather patterns tending to linger. No obvious rapid change to this in the immediate outlook so this would portend the UK remaining under the block and thus a very slack gradient with the warm/hot and dry weather set to continue.

On to a little more detail.

Low cloud and mist has encroached a fair way inland over eastern regions overnight

but this will quickly retreat leaving another warm and sunny day, albeit not quite so hot in NW regions than of late. usual caveat vis north east and eastern coastal regions as the gradient wind picks up a tad and sea breezes kicking in in other coastal areas.

Overnight the low cloud and mist will return as is likely to encroach further inland, particularly in in southern/central regions as the easterly wind veers and increases somewhat. It could well be slow to clear on Sunday but after it does it will another very warm day, particularly in the south and eastern coastal regions could see an improvement with the onshore wind adjustments, But slight complications in the south west (and NW Scotland,see chart) as a trough and more humid air tracks up from France initiating some instability and thundery showers.

The patchy rain in the NW and showery outbreak in the south west will linger overnight and into Monday before clearing leaving another warm and sunny day.

Tuesday another warm and sunny day with generally very light winds but south east coastal regions may be a little cooler.

Wednesday is more complicated as yet again an Atlantic trough interacts with the perennial Iberian cut off upper low which initiates a shallow surface low over Ireland and some patchy showery rain into the north west. And still the possibility of convective activity in the south west on an otherwise another warm day

Edited June 30, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

This morning's fax indicating the showery activity in the south west Sunday and patchy rain NW Scotland. The ecm has the plume smack over the UK on Sunday

This morning's 0600 geostationary

[Man With Beard]

Heatwave day 6: this is the one day where I think 30C might be out of reach: Best chance according to AROME / ARPEGE is the south coast or maybe N Ireland again, where 28-29 is likely. Aside that, odd spots getting to 28-29 around the UK on both models, but mid 20s widely. 

[knocker]

En Passant, so to speak

[knocker]

Not without interest this morning as for a time the clear sky gave way to a line (and wodge) of thick Cirrus with a sharp delineation between it and the clear sky  it took up more of the sky for a time than indicated on this photo, taken from a not very good position. It shows up clearly on the 0900 UTC geostationary.

[knocker]

Linked to the trough pushing north. The 1200 UTC geostationary, Frontal cloud west of Ireland

Edited June 30, 2018 by knocker

[Weather-history]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

If you look very closely, you can see the smoke plume coming off Winter Hill drifting well over the Irish Sea towards the Isle of Man

Edited June 30, 2018 by Weather-history

[knocker]

A little watering tomorrow

[knocker]

23 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

If you look very closely, you can see the smoke plume coming off Winter Hill drifting well over the Irish Sea towards the Isle of Man

Clearer on the high res. Modis at 1250 UTC?

[Sky Full]

Short range accumulated rainfall projections over the next 48 hours:

GFS            ICON    

WRF       ARPEGE  

The south west looks guaranteed to receive some welcome rain and South Wales could also be in the wet - MetO have issued a warning for thunderstorms in these areas for Sunday night.

[knocker]

Further to the earlier Cirrus post the upper level moisture shows up well on the 1200 sounding which would put the ci around 23,000 -25,000ft

Edited June 30, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The next attempt by the Atlantic to phase with the Iberian low merely establishes a very shallow low pressure area over the UK and France. Thus very warm again but much more humid which could spark some convective activity in some areas

 

Edited June 30, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

A small digression to start this morning. A couple of days ago there were some major differences between the medium term GEFs and EPS anomalies which were reflected in the resultant det. run evolutions but last night the GEFs was much more aligned with the EPS, albeit still with some upstream variations, mainly involving the vortex over the pole.

So essentially upstream we have the latter and associated trough Greenland/NW Atlantic, and with high pressure and ridging in the southern states, a strong westerly upper flow exiting the NE of North America. But this continues to back in mid Atlantic as it hits the buffer of the continuing Scandinavian block supported by more impressive ridging north east of the Azores high pressure which is a feature that has been dominating out weather and looks odds on to continue to do so in the medium term and thus the warm/hot dry spell to continue. And if we throw in last night’s NOAA we have a consensus.

This then is the backdrop of this morning’s short range but although the overall picture remains the same there are some developments causing variations in the regional detail, particularly today, but generally over the period.

This morning sees two of these developments already underway. As can be seen on the 0300 WV satellite image cloud from the front is already into N. Ireland and western Scotland and more cloud associated with the trough and humid unstable air pushing north into the south west.

This will be bringing patchy rain to the former area during the day and thundery outbreaks in the south west spreading north into Wales and the west midlands by evening. Some quite localized intense rainfall  could occur if you happen to catch one. Elsewhere another hot and sunny day particularly around the M4 corridor and quite oppressive as the humidity and wind pick up

Overnight and through tomorrow the cloud with patchy rain may linger over western and northern Scotland but the thundery showers fruther south should die out resulting in another warm and sunny day withe usual caveat vis the north east coasts.

By Tuesday, with the upper trough to the west, attempting to phases with the Iberian low, the Azores is again ridging into Scotland around  low pressure to the south west resulting in a a very similar day to Monday

by Wednesday the phasing just mentioned has merely resulted in a slack low pressure area over Ireland and a warm, humid day with little wind over the UK with the chance of some thundery showers breaking out in some places.

Another very warm and sunny day on Thursday in virtually all areas with virtually no wind and with eastern regions faring a bit better than at times recently

 

[knocker]

Further regarding the instability in the south west today

supported by a couple of forecast soundings

 

 

[Man With Beard]

Heatwave Day 7:

Well as suspected, day 6 fell just short of 30C, with 29.5C the official max in Walsall. First day of the heatwave not to make it. 

Maximums today:

ARPEGE : England 30-31, Wales 27-28, Scotland 27-28, Ireland / N Ireland 26-27.

AROME : England 30-31, Wales 28-29, Scotland not shown, Ireland 28-29, N Ireland 26-27 (maybe 28)

Maximums in England today anywhere in a line from Sussex to Lancashire. 

 

[knocker]

The 0600 UTC geostationary. There is a concoction of medium cloud here with slight rain