Short range model discussion - into 2018

[cheese]

10 minutes ago, booferking said:

Why's that?

Castlederg 30c

Shannon airport 31c

Going by what an Irish user on the other side said. Wasn't it going for higher than 31C?

Edited June 27, 2018 by cheese

[booferking]

11 minutes ago, cheese said:

Going by what an Irish user on the other side said. Wasn't it going for higher than 31C?

Man with beard wrote what the predicted maximums from AROME & ARPEGE 14hrs were to be below look spot on to me.

 

Today's maximums according to model and area

AROME 00Z: England 30-31C (western areas), Wales 30-31C, Ireland 30-31C, N Ireland 30-31C, Scotland not available

ARPEGE 00Z: England 30-31C, Wales 30-31C, Ireland 30-32C, N Ireland 30-31C, Scotland 30-31C

All other models on Meteociel are about 3-4C down on these values.

Edited June 27, 2018 by booferking

[knocker]

The very warm. sometimes hot, sunny and dry weather is set to continue but some gradual pattern changes will initiate some regional temperature variations as the period progresses. Put simplistically these changes constitute the high cell moving N/NE towards Norway allowing both warm and more humid air associated with low pressure to the south to move north into southern England and Wales whilst the Azores HP, centred to the south west, renews ridging north east.

Over the next couple of days the west/east temp bias will continue with the plume out to the west and onshore winds to the east.

This will be particularly noticeable today which could well be the hottest day of the year, or many a year, in N. Ireland, western Scotland, NW England and parts of Wales.

After a clear night in most areas, any low cloud in eastern areas that has ingressed inland will quickly burn off to just coastal regions so another hot and sunny day beckons but with some relief in the form of sea breezes around the coast

Overnight the low cloud will return, perhaps more widespread as the easterly strengthens, and it may well linger more through the day in some areas with a dyeing cold front quite adjacent, but tomorrow will again be warm and sunny generally but perhaps the temps down a shade from today.

Saturday brings us to the position, not only where this post began, but one that has been causing the models a bit of grief in assessing the phasing of the Atlantic trough and the promotion of the Iberian low resulting in the surface low tracking north and introducing the more humid and less stable airmass to the south. Thus by Saturday there is a clear redistribution of temps with now a N/S split, remaining very warm in the south but cloudier and cooler in parts of the north.

Essentially this remains the theme over Sunday and Monday, The warmer more humid air pushing north under the ridging high pressure thus the North Sea easterly veering a tad, So no drastic deterioration of the fine spell but generally warmer the further south you go with possibly more cloud in some north and north east regions.

 

[knocker]

Still no agreement on the phasing of the upper troughs and as can be seen the ecm forms another low west of Ireland whilst engaging the Iberian low. This does have the effect of dragging the plume through central/southern England and Wales and some more very warm temps on Sunday Most of the showery precipitation associated with the trough will track into southern Ireland but some could impact the south west without amounting to much.

Edited June 28, 2018 by knocker

[mb018538]

Thanks for these knocker. The only drawback is that the humidity is likely to increase into next week, so rather than the nice dry heat we have had all through this week, we may revert back to some sticky humid weather as next week progresses,

[Man With Beard]

10 hours ago, cheese said:

I think Arpege overestimated temperatures in Ireland though. 

Perhaps. It's difficult to say because the areas they suggested could reach 32/33C may not have coincided with reporting stations - Shannon airport got to 31C which I think was reasonably close to what it was predicting.

I think today sees a better chance for those kinds of values actually recorded in Ireland -  the areas of 32C/33C seem a bit wider on today's ARPEGE:

We also have potential for 32C in N Ireland (a national record?) and 32C in Scotland according to these charts. The heat is actually down a little for England and Wales, apart from the far NW (31C perhaps in Carlise/Keswick) and the far SW (30C in Chivenor). 

AROME is in pretty good agreement - areas of 32-33C in Ireland, 30-31C in N Ireland, and a couple of isolated spots reaching 30C in England/Wales, but generally 1 or 2C down on yesterday

I note the ECM raw data now gives a 30C for Ireland - this model has generally been 3C down on actual maximums all week, so 33C a possibility from this model too. 

The temperature to beat for the all time Irish record is 33.3C. Close! 

The Northern Irish record looks even more vulnerable today: 30.8C. 

The Scottish record of 32.9C should be safe, but not absolutely impossible when you consider the exceptional localised conditions in Wales yesterday e.g. Portmadog.

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Just looking ahead a little - now I know a few of my fellow southerners have been complaining that this heatwave hasn't been anything special so far (yes really!!) - well the waiting for extreme temperatures will soon be over. Sunday is looking very hot in the south on ARPEGE - 34C recorded on a few successive runs now:

The ECM raw data for Sunday has a large area between 28C-29C through central southern areas, with 30C in places - again, going by the form of this week, that would equate to something similar to ARPEGE at 31C-33C, but the highest temps a little further NE (as Knocker's chart above shows).

Edited June 28, 2018 by Man With Beard

[cheese]

I really wish the wind direction would change as I would like to reach 30C at least once. 

[knocker]

This morning's fax is not a million miles away from the ecm so thundery showers are a distinct possibility in the south west including SW Wales

.

[knocker]

The 0900 geostationary and 1000 chart with temps already soaring in N. Ireland

[knocker]

Nary a cloud on the high res. MODIS at 1116 UTC

[WhiteFox]

4 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Just looking ahead a little - now I know a few of my fellow southerners have been complaining that this heatwave hasn't been anything special so far (yes really!!) - well the waiting for extreme temperatures will soon be over. Sunday is looking very hot in the south on ARPEGE - 34C recorded on a few successive runs now:

 

No complaints from me here in Reading. I much prefer this dry heat to hot and sticky 35+!

Blissful weather here: clouded over a bit the past two nights but it has burnt away quickly to leave clear skies by 11am. Now at almost 1500, there are a few small cumulus clouds drifting by. A gentle breeze is keeping it a perfect summer day; why would I want 35oC with humidity when a dry 27 is just perfect? Great for sleeping too! Still feels so much like the summer of 1995 at the moment...

[knocker]

Frontal cloud very close to northern Scotland at 1300 UTC. Cu around the London area

[knocker]

What may be significant on this evening's gfs upstream is the very strong ridge and heat dome in the eastern US which develops and initiates another trough disruption of the Bermuda ridge in the western Atlantic.

Edited June 28, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

More humid and convectively unstable air into the S/SW on Sunday which could make it a deal more uncomfortable than of late Also a frontal surface across N. Ireland and Scotland

Edited June 28, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm and fax in pretty good agreement with the convectively unstable plume pushing north over Sunday

[knocker]

Max temps on the 1800 Synops

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/18.html

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Max temps on the 1800 Synops

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/18.html

AROME absolutely on the money again, except for a little town in N Wales called Portmadog! 

[knocker]

Last evening the main models were indicating an Omega Block towards the end of the short range, much along the lines of the EPS below.

This would suggest an area of inertia in the eastern Atlantic, including the UK, whilst the block lasts, and although to some extent the low pressure areas do get boosted at intervals, (an example noted last evening) most of the movement will be internal.

This would also suggest a continuation of temps above average with little precipitation although there is always a possibility of showery activity and some storms where the more convectively unstable air has encroached north over the UK from the south,

More detail

Today any cloud lingering inland should quite quickly burn off, except perhaps on the east coast fringes, giving another warm and sunny day just about everywhere, Not as hot as yesterday in western Scotland but western areas still favoured with the east cooler in the onshore breeze. Other coastal will also be cooler where sea breezes kick in.

Tonight the low cloud and mist will return and ingress further inland in central the southern areas and this may be slower to clear tomorrow. but once it does  it will be another sunny and warm day for most but again cooler in the eastern regions as the easterly breeze veers and strengthens as the more humid air starts to push north as the day progresses.

Sunday sees a continuation northwards of the convectively unstable air, particularly across the south west, with troughs in close proximity which could lead to some shower  and thundery activity in this area and south wales Again warm in southern and central areas but cooler in the north particularly north eastern coastal regions in the now quite fresh south easterly wind.

Very similar story on Monday with a chance of showery outbreaks in the south west

Tuesday a continuation of generally dry and sunny but temps down a tad from the high of late with the regional variations quite evident.

Edited June 29, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Sunny morning here but some ci and Ac Cas. with a touch of Floccus

[knocker]

Fax updates on the trough Sunday/Monday and the ecm

 

 

[Man With Beard]

Heatwave Day 5: Predicted maximums today

AROME: England 28-29C (possible 30-31 in NW), Wales 28-29C, Scotland not shown, Ireland 32-33C, N Ireland 30-31C

ARPEGE: England 30-31C (Lake District), Wales 28-29C, Scotland 28-29C, Ireland 32-33C, N Ireland 30-31C

So, very unusually, N Ireland might be the top spot in the UK today. 

[shaky]

2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Heatwave Day 5: Predicted maximums today

AROME: England 28-29C (possible 30-31 in NW), Wales 28-29C, Scotland not shown, Ireland 32-33C, N Ireland 30-31C

ARPEGE: England 30-31C (Lake District), Wales 28-29C, Scotland 28-29C, Ireland 32-33C, N Ireland 30-31C

So, very unusually, N Ireland might be the top spot in the UK today. 

Arpege upgrades temps even further for sunday!!32-33 degrees widely in central south and 850 temps getting close to +17!!arpege and ecm look quite similar to be fair!!surely cant be wrong at just 2 days out!!

[Deep Snow please]

 

5 minutes ago, cheese said:

And when you're a kid you're not thinking about being stuck in a stuffy classroom, you're thinking about being outside when you go home, staying out until 9 or 10pm - certainly something you can't do when it's dull and wet. There are always kids on the field near my house kicking a football about, but they're not doing that when it's 18 degrees and cloudy.

Soft bairns these days. We used to do that when it was 8 degrees and bucketing it down. 

[knocker]

Interesting that the ecm takes the plume a fair way north just to the east of the UK which pushes the very warm airmass into southern Norway

[knocker]

The high res, MODIS at midday (courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving Station). The fire at Saddleworth Moor can still be seen